We’re adding KSS to our #Real Time Alerts on the short side. We’re looking for stocks where our analysts are bearish fundamentally yet are immediate-term overbought on top of a bearish formation. KSS hits the trifecta.
One of the best ways we can explain away our concern around KSS is in the market share dispersion chart below. JCP ceded $2.7bn in share in the first three quarters of the year, and is on track to clock in at about $4bn for the year. How much of that is KSS winning? Less than 0.3%. That’s flat-out embarrassing.
We’re consistently told by KSS bulls that the KSS and JCP customers are different given that KSS is off-mall. But we can’t get over KSS’ sheer inability to execute on this once in a lifetime opportunity. We need to remind everyone that JCP is within one month of when it starts to go against -20%+ comps from a year ago. It won’t comp positive. But the delta will definitely get more difficult for KSS.