Not a lot of corn out there right now
Today’s WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) didn’t tell us anything that we didn’t already know – yields ticked up a bit from December (123.4 versus 122.3 bushel per acre) and ending stocks were down at 602 MMT versus 647 MMT in the prior report and expectations of 652 MMT. The 602 MMT is a historically tight number as we head into the planting season. I wouldn't read too much into the yield increases, as that number tends to get fudged a bit.
In a bit of a surprise, both Argentinean and Brazilian corn production estimates were raised – we only saw half of that coming and expected a move in the other direction in Argentina.
The bottom line is that there is not a heck of a lot of corn out there versus historically levels, and the snow situation in the Midwest remains unhelpful – average snow depth across the Midwest for the first 11 days of January was 0.3 inches and that was covering only about 10.4% of the area. We need to start getting some snow.
Have a good weekend,
HEDGEYE RISK MANAGEMENT, LLC