THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – January 11, 2013


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 42 points or 1.37% downside to 1452 and 1.49% upside to 1494.    

                                                                                                                           

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 10


CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 1.64 from 1.65
  • VIX closed at 13.49 1 day percent change of -2.32%

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 8:30am: Import price index, Dec., M/m est. 0.1% (prior -0.9%)
  • 8:30am: Trade balance, Nov., est. -$41.3b (prior -$42.2b)
  • 9:30am: Fed’s Plosser speaks on economic outlook in N.J.
  • 11am: Fed to buy $4.75b-$5.75b in 2017-2018 sector
  • 12pm: Jan. WASDE report
  • 1pm: Monthly budget statement, Dec., est. -$1b (prior -$86b)

GOVERNMENT:

    • House, Senate not in session
    • Deadline for FERC to respond to Deutsche Bank’s rejection of $1.6m in penalties
    • CFTC holds closed meeting on enforcement matters, 10am
    • Medicare Payment Advisory Commission meets on long-term care hospital services, competition in Part D, 8:30am
    • ITC Judge Thomas Pender may release findings in patent-infringement case by Dover unit against Analog Devices over microphones in digital devices

WHAT TO WATCH

  • Best Buy possible holiday sales drop may hurt Schulze buyout bid
  • Trade gap in U.S. probably narrowed as fuel costs declined
  • China’s inflation accelerates as chill boosts food prices
  • Japan’s Abe unveils $116b stimulus package to boost growth
  • American Express to cut 5,400 jobs, take $287m charge
  • Boeing Dreamliner system said to be focus of FAA inquiry
  • Cyprus facing world’s biggest bank bailout as Moody’s cuts 3 steps
  • U.S. mortgage overhaul under way with borrower scrutiny measure
  • Apple CEO Cook says China will overtake U.S. as biggest mkt
  • Bats blaming market rules for mishaps as calls for overhaul grow
  • Kocherlakota says Fed policy not easy enough with low inflation
  • Citigroup joins Goldman in starting electronic bond-trade system
  • Slim’s Sanborns said to seek $1b in share offer
  • Li & Fung sees 2012 operating profit down 40% on U.S. costs
  • Ex-hedge-fund manager Hochfeld pleads guilty to securities fraud
  • Number of Euribor maturities must be halved, EU regulators say
  • MF Global creditors file liquidation plan following settlements
  • Ford plans 2,200 salaried hires in biggest increase since 2001
  • U.S. Retail Sales, China GDP, Goldman: Wk Ahead Jan. 12-19

EARNINGS:

    • Wells Fargo (WFC) 8am, $0.90 - Preview

 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

 

COMMODITIES – CRB Commodities Index has reflexive components (Oil and Copper don’t like the China down move because commodity bulls still think long commodity inflation is a demand story – we think it’s a money and physical commodity supply one); Copper down -0.8% here and Gold just failed at $1678 resistance again; we re-shorted Gold on green yest.

  • Brent Oil Set for First Weekly Drop in Three on China Inflation
  • Wheat Trade More Bullish Even as Bear Market Begins: Commodities
  • Copper Falls as Inflation Fuels Concern China May Curb Stimulus
  • Gold Falls as Strengthening Dollar Encourages Investors to Sell
  • Soybeans Slide a Fourth Day as Report Might Ease Supply Concern
  • Indonesia May Cut Palm Oil Tax to Zero to Counter Malaysia
  • Iron Ore at 15-Month High Deters Restocking at China Mills
  • Texas Energy Boom Fuels Best Performance Since ’09: Muni Credit
  • Thai Sugar Output Seen by Macquarie 12% Down on Dry Weather
  • Morgan Stanley Names Tan Head of Asia Commodities in Singapore
  • U.S. LNG Profit Seen Elusive as Price Gap Closes: Energy Markets
  • China May Increase Gold Holdings in Reserves, Researcher Says
  • Chavez’s Food Shortages Bigger Worry Than Venezuela Constitution
  • Rebar Tumbles Most Since November as China’s Inflation Quickens

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

CURRENCIES


FX – USD looks to keep making a series of long-term higher-lows as Commodities (CRB Index) makes a series of long-term lower-highs. The Yen, meanwhile, is a flaming ball of fire (Japan introduced a 10.3 TRILLION Yen Keynesian “stimulus” spending package overnight – that’s about $116B in USD, but who is counting anymore).

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

ASIAN MARKETS


CHINA – on the #growthstabilizing side they delivered a big Export print for DEC at +14.1% y/y (vs +2.9% last mth), but on the CPI front the number they made up didn’t deflate enough to keep the Shanghai Comp going higher (-1.8% overnight).

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

MIDDLE EAST


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 9

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 

 

 


Cartoon of the Day: 'Biggest Tax Cut Ever'

President Donald Trump's economic team unveiled what he called last week, "the biggest tax cut we’ve ever had.” Before you get too excited about that hang on a sec. "Trump Tax Reform ain’t gettin’ done anytime soon," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look.

read more

Neurofinance: The Psychology Behind When To Sell A Bull Market

"Most momentum investors stay invested too long, under-reacting and holding tight after truly bad news finally arrives to break the trend," writes MarketPsych's Richard Peterson.

read more

Energy Stocks: Time to Buy the Dip? | $XLE

What the heck is happening in the Energy sector (XLE)? Energy stocks have trailed the S&P 500 by a whopping 15% in 2017. Before you buy the dip, here's what you need to know.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Hard-Headed Bears

How's this for "hard data"? So far, 107 of 497 S&P 500 companies have reported aggregate sales and earnings growth of 4.4% and 13.2% respectively.

read more

Premium insight

McCullough [Uncensored]: When People Say ‘Everyone is Bullish, That’s Bulls@#t’

“You wonder why the performance of the hedge fund indices is so horrendous,” says Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough, “they’re all doing the same thing, after the market moves. You shouldn’t be paid for that.”

read more

SECTOR SPOTLIGHT Replay | Healthcare Analyst Tom Tobin Today at 2:30PM ET

Tune in to this edition of Sector Spotlight with Healthcare analyst Tom Tobin and Healthcare Policy analyst Emily Evans.

read more

Ouchy!! Wall Street Consensus Hit By Epic Short Squeeze

In the latest example of what not to do with your portfolio, we have Wall Street consensus positioning...

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Bulls Leading the People

Investors rejoiced as centrist Emmanuel Macron edged out far-right Marine Le Pen in France's election day voting. European equities were up as much as 4.7% on the news.

read more

McCullough: ‘This Crazy Stat Drives Stock Market Bears Nuts’

If you’re short the stock market today, and your boss asks why is the Nasdaq at an all-time high, here’s the only honest answer: So far, Nasdaq company earnings are up 46% year-over-year.

read more

Who's Right? The Stock Market or the Bond Market?

"As I see it, bonds look like they have further to fall, while stocks look tenuous at these levels," writes Peter Atwater, founder of Financial Insyghts.

read more

Poll of the Day: If You Could Have Lunch with One Fed Chair...

What do you think? Cast your vote. Let us know.

read more

Are Millennials Actually Lazy, Narcissists? An Interview with Neil Howe (Part 2)

An interview with Neil Howe on why Boomers and Xers get it all wrong.

read more