JOBLESS CLAIMS: THE SIGNAL AND THE NOISE

Takeaway: Full steam ahead on the labor front.

This week's take on the labor market is shorter than usual owing to me being on the road.

 

The Signal

Labor conditions improved demonstrably this past week, in spite of what the printed number suggests. As the first chart shows, the rolling YoY NSA claims series improved to -9.8%, which is sharply better than the -6.0% and -5.9% readings over the prior two weeks. Remember that a smaller number (i.e. more negative) is better in this instance. This puts the rolling NSA series right back on track with it's longer-term average, meaning that labor conditions are continuing to improve, and at an accelerating rate versus what we saw in December.

 

The Noise

Seasonally-adjusted claims "rose" 4k to 371k after last week's print was revised from 372k to 367k. Overall, the seasonally-adjusted series continues to bounce along the 365-375k range it has occupied post Hurricane Sandy renormalization.

 

JOBLESS CLAIMS: THE SIGNAL AND THE NOISE - nsa rolling yoy

 

JOBLESS CLAIMS: THE SIGNAL AND THE NOISE - sa 4 wk

 

JOBLESS CLAIMS: THE SIGNAL AND THE NOISE - sep thru feb

 

Joshua Steiner, CFA

 

 


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