THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – January 10, 2013

 

As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 45 points or 1.03% downside to 1446 and 2.05% upside to 1491.                                                                                                                               

 

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 10


CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 1.64 from 1.62
  • VIX closed at 13.81 1 day percent change of 1.40%

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 8:30am: Init jobless claims, Jan. 5, est. 365k (prior 372k)
  • 8:45am: Bloomberg Jan. U.S. economic survey
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg consumer comfort, Jan. 6 (prior -31.8)
  • 10am: Freddie Mac 30-yr mortgage rates
  • 10am: Wholesale inventories, Nov., est. 0.3% (prior 0.6%)
  • 10am: JOLTs job openings, Nov., est. 3.683m (prior 3.675m)
  • 10:30am: EIA natural-gas storage change
  • 11am: Fed to buy $2.75b-$3.50b in 02/15/2020–11/15/2022 sector
  • 1pm: U.S. to sell $13b 30Y bonds reopening
  • 1:10 pm: Fed’s George speaks in Kansas City
  • 2pm: Fed’s Bullard speaks in Madison, Wisconsin
  • 8pm: Fed’s Kocherlakota speaks in Minneapolis

GOVERNMENT:

    • House, Senate not in session
    • CFPB field hearing in Baltimore on mortgage policy, 10am
    • Organic farmers to ask appeals court to reinstate suit filed against Monsanto over gene-modified seeds, 10am
    • Dow, other companies discuss natural gas exports, 12pm

WHAT TO WATCH

  • Blackrock to buy $17.6b ETF business from Credit Suisse
  • Herbalife to defend itself against Ackman in analyst mtg
  • China exports rise more than estimated as credit expands
  • Bats says system errors caused pricing problems over 4yrs
  • Spain sells EU5.8b of bonds vs maximum target of EU5b
  • BOE seen refraining from further stimulus as officials access credit plan
  • Chrysler says UAW retiree trust demands step to possible IPO
  • Volkswagen offers to buy out MAN owners to push truck intergration
  • Buffett guarantees banks pose no U.S. threat after cutting excessive risk
  • Deutsche Bank denies Libor manipulation after report of $654m gain
  • Liberty Media awarded EU765m in case against Vivendi
  • Verizon said to face backup power requirement on emergency calls
  • Tiffany, Aeropostale, American Eagle release holiday sales

EARNINGS:

    • Jean Coutu Group (PJC/A CN) 7am, $0.26
    • MSC Industrial (MSM) 7:30am, $1.01
    • Astral Media (ACM/A CN) 7:55am, $1.03
    • Supervalu (SVU) 8am, $0.07
    • Synnex (SNX) 4pm, $1.04

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Brent Oil Rises to Three-Month High on Chinese Growth, Saudi Cut
  • Corn Supply Dropping Most Since 1995 Signals Rally: Commodities
  • Saudi Arabia Said to Cut December Oil Output to 19-Month Low
  • European Copper Premium Seen Steady by Traders Amid Weak Demand
  • Palm Oil Reserves in Malaysia Gain to Record as Exports Drop
  • Goldman Names Quek Asia-Pacific Commodities Trading Head
  • Copper Rises on Chinese Exports as Aluminum Gains for Fourth Day
  • Wheat Advances as Slump to Six-Month Low May Attract Importers
  • Sugar, Cocoa, Coffee Gain as Commodities Advance on China’s Data
  • Hall Sets Up Commodities Hedge Fund Five Months After Duet Split
  • Bakken Oil on Trains to East Boosts Independence: Energy Markets
  • Molycorp Misses Rare-Earth Output Target, Reduces Sales Forecast
  • China Steam Coal Prices Fall 26% From Peak in December: BI Chart
  • Shanghai to More Than Double Bonded Warehouses as LME Eyes Port

CURRENCIES

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

ASIAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

MIDDLE EAST

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 9

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 

 

 


Another French Revolution?

"Don't be complacent," writes Hedgeye Managing Director Neil Howe. "Tectonic shifts are underway in France. Is there the prospect of the new Sixth Republic? C'est vraiment possible."

read more

Cartoon of the Day: The Trend is Your Friend

"All of the key trending macro data suggests the U.S. economy is accelerating," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough says.

read more

A Sneak Peek At Hedgeye's 2017 GDP Estimates

Here's an inside look at our GDP estimates versus Wall Street consensus.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Green Thumb

So far, 64 of 498 companies in the S&P 500 have reported aggregate sales and earnings growth of 6.1% and 16.8% respectively.

read more

Europe's Battles Against Apple, Google, Innovation & Jobs

"“I am very concerned the E.U. maintains a battle against the American giants while doing everything possible to sustain so-called national champions," writes economist Daniel Lacalle. "Attacking innovation doesn’t create jobs.”

read more

An Open Letter to Pandora Management...

"Please stop leaking information to the press," writes Hedgeye Internet & Media analyst Hesham Shaaban. "You are getting in your own way, and blowing up your shareholders in the process."

read more

A 'Toxic Cocktail' Brewing for A Best Idea Short

The first quarter earnings pre-announcement today is not the end of the story for Mednax (MD). Rising labor costs and slowing volume is a toxic cocktail...

read more

Energy Stocks: Time to Buy? Here's What You Need to Know

If you're heavily-invested in Energy stocks it's been a heck of a year. Energy is the worst-performing sector in the S&P 500 year-to-date and value investors are now hunting for bargains in the oil patch. Before you buy, here's what you need to know.

read more

McCullough: ‘My 1-Minute Summary of My Institutional Meetings in NYC Yesterday’

What are even some of the smartest investors in the world missing right now?

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Political Portfolio Positioning

Leave your politics out of your portfolio.

read more

Jim Rickards Answers the Hedgeye 21

Bestselling author Jim Rickards says if he could be any animal he’d be a T-Rex. He also loves bonds and hates equities. Check out all of his answers to the Hedgeye 21.

read more

Amazon's New 'Big Idea': Ignore It At Your Own Peril

"We all see another ‘big idea’ out of Amazon (or the press making one up) just about every day," writes Retail Sector Head Brian McGough. "But whatever you do, DON’T ignore this one!"

read more