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Takeaway: My sense is enough people missed the biggest up week for stocks in a year for me to believe just about anything.

This note was originally published January 07, 2013 at 11:33 in Macro

POSITIONS: 11 LONGS, 8 SHORTS

Stocks got immediate-term overbought as bonds got oversold on Friday. Immediate-term TRADE overbought is as overbought does, so just be smart where you make those gross and net exposure decisions. Timing matters.

Do you believe we make a higher-high versus 1466? Or, maybe a better question, did you believe that we could test 1466 before we did? My sense is enough people missed the biggest up week for stocks in a year for me to believe just about anything.

Across our core risk management durations, here are the lines that matter to me most:

  1. Immediate-term TRADE overbought = 1482
  2. Immediate-term TRADE support = 1439
  3. Intermediate-term TREND support = 1419

In other words, the SP500 could drop 20 handles from today’s intraday low as fast as it could tack on another 20 from here. What do you do with that? I say you keep moving and risk manage this tape with a bullish bias until the research factors (#GrowthStabilizing) and/or risk signals change.

KM

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

Do You Believe? S&P 500 Levels, Refreshed - SPX