MACAU: DECEMBER DETAIL

Here is some more detail on the final December numbers from Macau:

 

Y-O-Y TABLE OBSERVATIONS

 

Total table revenues grew 21% in December.  Mass revenue growth was strong at 32%, just a little above the 6-month trailing average of 31%.  VIP revenues grew 16% - the best growth in 9 months.  Junket RC volume grew 9% YoY.  We expect that January’s growth rate will slow to 7-12% growth, due to the smoking restrictions and unfavorable calendary.

 

LVS

 

Table revenues grew 52% YoY (Mass +48%; VIP+55%), garnering the best growth in the market for the 6th straight month.  We estimate that Sands China held at 3.14% vs 2.86% last year, adjusted for direct play of 19%.  

  • Sands table revenue fell 9% YoY, aided by high hold but hurt by an even tough comparison. 
    • Mass grew 12%
    • VIP was down 20%.  We estimate that Sands held at 3.70% in December compared to 4.01% in the same period last year.  We assume 9% direct play in December vs 11% in December 2011.
    • Junket RC declined 11% YoY, aside from September; 12 of the 13 trailing months have seen YoY declines in RC volume. 
  • Venetian table grew 19% YoY, negatively impacted by low hold but offset by an easy comparison.
    • Mass increased 15%
    • VIP was grew 24%
    • Junket VIP RC increased 14%, breaking 10th consecutive months of declines at Venetian
    • Assuming 30% direct play, hold was 2.70% compared to 2.59% in December 2011, assuming 27% direct play (in-line with 4Q11)
  • Four Seasons continued to perform well, growing 43% YoY, driven by high hold and an easy comparison
    • Mass revenues were flat YoY
    • VIP grew 52% and Junket VIP RC rose 16% YoY
    • If we assume direct play of 16%, in-line with the first 3Q of 2012, hold in December was 3.19% vs. 2.42% in December 2011 when direct play was ~16%
  • Sands Cotai Central produced $169MM in December
    • Mass revenue of $62MM, $1MM lower MoM
    • VIP revenue of $107MM
    • Junket RC volume of $2.83 BN, up 2% MoM
    • If we assume that direct play was 9%, hold would have been 3.46% 

WYNN

 

Wynn table revenues fell 10% YoY in December.  Hold was high but last year’s comparison was more difficult.

  • Mass was up 4% YoY– the worst performance of the 6 concessionaires for the 4th consecutive month
  • Wynn was the only concessionaire to record a decline in VIP revenues this month, which fell 13%.  With the exception of September, Wynn has had YoY declines in VIP revenues for the last 8 of 9 months.
  • Junket RC fell 9%, the worst performance of the group.  Aside from a 1% gain in November, 7 of the last 8 consecutive months have been in the red.
  • Assuming 10% of total VIP play was direct (in-line with 3Q12), we estimate that hold was 3.10% compared to 3.21% last year (assuming 11% direct play – in-line with 4Q11).

MPEL

 

MPEL table revenue grew 14%, negatively impacted by low hold and a difficult YoY comparison.  Hold across MPEL’s two properties was 2.84% vs. 3.16% last year.

  • Altira revenues grew 11%, with a 21% increase in Mass and a 10% increase in VIP
    • VIP RC increased 13%, breaking its 12th month consecutive streak of losses
    •  We estimate that hold was 3.11%, compared to 3.30% in the prior year
  • CoD table revenues grew 15% YoY, despite low hold
    • Mass revenue grew an impressive 62%, offset by a 2% drop in VIP revenue
    • RC grew 13%
    • Assuming a 15% direct play level, hold was 2.70% in December compared to 3.08% last year (assuming 16% direct play)

SJM

 

Table revenue grew 20%

  • Mass revenue was up 9% and VIP revenue grew 25%
  • Junket RC grew 12%
  • Hold was 3.03%, compared with 2.70% last December

GALAXY

 

Galaxy table revenues grew 14%.   Mass growth took the top spot with 59% growth.  VIP revenues only grew 3%YoY, despite high hold.  Across its two owned properties, Galaxy held at 3.39% vs. 3.04% in December 2011.

  • StarWorld table revenues fell 2%, marking the 7thconsecutive month of declines
    • Mass grew 57%, offset by a 9% drop in VIP
    • Junket RC fell 11%, marking the 7th month of consecutive declines
    • Hold was normal at 2.84% vs. an easy comparison of 2.76% last December
  • Galaxy Macau's table revenues grew 33%
    • Mass grew 63%
    • VIP grew 25%, while RC grew 8%, breaking a 4 consecutive month streak of declines
    • Hold was high in December at 3.86% vs. 3.34% last  year

MGM

 

MGM table revenue grew 38% in December, aided by high hold. 

  • Mass revenue grew 51%
  • VIP revenue grew 35% on a 10% increase in VIP RC.
  • If direct play was 8%, then December hold was 3.55% compared to 2.90% last year

 

SEQUENTIAL MARKET SHARE

 

LVS

 

LVS’s MoM share increased 20bps to 21.0%.  December’s share was better than its 6 month trailing market share of 20.2% and better than Sands’ 2011 average share of 15.7%.

  • Sands' share was flat at 3.7%.  For comparison purposes, 2011 share was 4.6% and 6M trailing average share was 3.8%.
    • Mass share ticked down to 5.3%
    • VIP rev share was flat at 3.0%
    • RC share was 2.4%, down 10bps MoM
  • Venetian’s share ticked up 10bps to 8.0%.  2011 share was 8.4% and 6 month trailing share was 8.1%.
    • Mass share fell 40bps to 13.1%
    • VIP share increased 30bps to 5.9%
    • Junket RC share increased 1% to 5.1%
  • FS was flat at 3.7%.  This compares to 2011 share of 2.2% and 6M trailing average share of 3.2%.
    • VIP ticked up 10bps to 4.6%. 
    • Mass share fell 30bps to 1.6%
    • Junket RC fell 40bps to 4.1%
  • Sands Cotai Central's table market share ticked up 10bps to 5.0% and compares to the 6M trailing average share of 4.5%.
    • Mass share of 6.2%
    • VIP share of 4.5%
    • Junket RC share ticked down 10bps to 4.0% 

WYNN


Wynn was the biggest share donor in December, losing 1.8% to 10.3% in December.  Wynn’s 2011 share averaged 14.1% and their 6-month trailing share averaged 11.5%.  

  • Mass market share increased 50bps to 8.0%, an all-time property low
  • VIP market share plunged 3.1% to 11.1%
  • Junket RC share decreased 70bps to 10.7%, the lowest level since October 2007

MPEL

 

MPEL’s lost 20bps of share in December to 13.5%, below their 6 month trailing share of 13.7% and their 2011 share of 14.8%.  

  • Altira’s share fell 10bps to 4.0%, above its 6M trailing share of 3.9% but below their 2011 share of 5.3%. 
    • Mass share ticked up 10bps to 1.4%
    • VIP fell 20bps to 5.1%
    • VIP RC share fell 20bps to 5.2%
  • CoD’s share fell 10bps to 9.4%.  December’s share was above the property’s 2011 and in-line with 6M trailing share of 9.3% and 9.5%, respectively.
    • Mass market share was flat 11.7%, in-line with an all-time high for the property set in November
    • VIP share was flat at 8.5%
    • Junket share fell 90bps to 9.0%

SJM

 

SJM’s share fell 1.5% to 26.1%.  December’s share compares to their 2011 average of 29.2% and its 6M trailing average of 26.5%.

  • Mass market share fell 1.6% to 28.7%, an all-time company low
  • VIP share dropped 1.4%to 26.0%
  • Junket RC share increased 1.6% to 29.0%

GALAXY


Galaxy was the largest share gainer in December, increased 2% points to 18.2%, below its 6M trailing share average of 18.5%

  • Galaxy Macau share increased 2.5% to 11.0%, positively impacted by 3.86% and an easy comparison in November
    • Mass share increased 70bps to 9.8%
    • VIP share increased 3.3% to 11.5%
    • RC share grew 60bps to 10.2%, reversing 6 consecutive months of share declines
  • Starworld share fell 30bps to 6.2%
    • Mass share increased 90bps to 3.5%
    • VIP share fell 90bps  to 7.3%
    • RC share increased 10bps to 8.7%

MGM

 

MGM gained 1.3% share to 10.9% in December, above their 6M average of 9.7% and above their 2011 share of 10.5%.

  • Mass share increased 1.2% to 8.1%
  • VIP share grew 1.6% to 11.9%
  • Junket RC fell 90bps to 10.5%

 

Slot Revenue

 

Slot revenue grew 7% YoY to $145MM in December.

  • LVS took the top prize for YoY growth of 49% to $49MM
  • Galaxy’s slot revenue grew 26% to $19MM, also setting a company record
  • MPEL grew 3% YoY to $24MM
  • MGM slot revenues fell 8% to $20MM
  • WYNN fell 18% to $19MM
  • SJM had the worst YoY performance in slots with a 29% YoY decline to $14MM  

 

MACAU: DECEMBER DETAIL  - table1

 

MACAU: DECEMBER DETAIL  - mass1

 

MACAU: DECEMBER DETAIL  - rc1


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