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Q4 estimates going higher


Following the receipt of the December detailed numbers for Macau, we are adjusting our Q4 property estimates higher for Galaxy, LVS, MPEL, MGM, and WYNN as follows:

MACAU MODEL UPDATES - d1

Certainly, hold played a big role in the estimate hikes.  In December, MPEL was the only company that held below its normal level.  Nevertheless, Mass growth was strong across the board in Q4 and Mass drives profitability.

We’ve updated the consensus as best as we could but you resourceful buysiders probably have a better consensus estimate than we do.  Nevertheless, we believe we are above consensus EBITDA estimates for all of the Macau operators with the exception of Wynn.  MPEL looks like it will generate the largest beat in percentage terms.