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OZM: Leading The Pack

Och-Ziff Capital Management (OZM), one of the few publicly traded hedge funds on the market, crushed December with their Master Fund gaining 1.0% month-over-month, ending 2012 up 11.18%. Their European Master Fund and Asia Master Fund were up 8.62% and 7.07% for 2012, respectively. Compared with the benchmark HFRX Global Hedge Fund Index 2012 return of 3.17%, OZM had a killer year.

 

OZM: Leading The Pack  - OZMchart

 

Though fund flows (money going into the fund) were negative for December by ~$450 million, they were positive for the year at $300 million. We expect more inflows into Och-Ziff in 2013 based on last year’s strong performance numbers. 

 

The stock is one of our top long ideas in financials for 2013. We believe that the market has yet to recognize the value of OZM’s incentive fee business and now that the fiscal cliff is behind us, we see that there is no damaging regulation that will affect asset management firms save for the small bump in long-term capital gains rates. It’s also worth noting that alternative asset managers like hedge funds do well in times of quantitative easing and we are well into our third round of QE.


SIZING UP ASIA & LATIN AMERICA FOR 2013

Takeaway: By modeling each economy from a full-year G/I/P perspective, we are better able to contextualize country-specific risks and opportunities.

SUMMARY BULLETS:

 

  • To kick-start the new year, we invite you deep into our process as we model each of the economies we follow across Asia and Latin America from a comprehensive GROWTH/INFLATION/POLICY perspective.
  • From there, we compare the mid-points of our 2013 forecast ranges for both GROWTH and INFLATION with current Bloomberg consensus forecasts, calling out any meaningful deviations between the our numbers and the Street. In short, we currently hold a variant outlook versus the Street in the following countries:
    • China: INFLATION
    • Hong Kong: INFLATION
    • Indonesia: INFLATION
    • Japan: GROWTH and INFLATION
    • New Zealand: GROWTH and INFLATION
    • Philippines: GROWTH
    • Singapore: GROWTH
    • Taiwan: GROWTH
    • Thailand: GROWTH
    • Brazil: GROWTH
    • Chile: GROWTH and INFLATION
    • Colombia: INFLATION
    • Mexico: INFLATION
    • Peru: GROWTH
    • Venezuela: GROWTH and INFLATION
  • Lastly, we provide color on each country’s financial market performance in 2012, as well as update you on our active fundamental investment ideas for each country. If we do not currently hold a high-conviction thesis, we flag any country-specific asset classes that are currently screening as a LONG or SHORT idea at first glance.
  • To dialogue further on anything you see below or to drill into country-specific catalysts, etc., please email us at .

 

METHODOLOGY

As a reminder, all of our country-specific estimates are being driven by our proprietary predictive tracking algorithm – a clear differentiator from traditional sell-side econometric models that tend to be, at best, late at flagging critical deltas in economic fundamentals. 

 

The main drawback to our approach is that because of the model’s heavy reliance on recently-reported trends in the underlying data series, the forecasting error tends to widen dramatically as estimates track further and further away from the latest reported data point. That being said, we are purposefully sacrificing long-term accuracy for near-term precision, as most long-term predictions tend to be wildly inaccurate anyway.

 

It's also important to note that the output(s) of our predictive tracking algorithm is a band of probable outcomes, rather than a singular forecast. We take the median of these ranges to artificially produce comparable full-year estimates to the pin-the-tail-on-the-donkey-style estimates of the Old Wall.

 

Lastly, our forecasts are inherently fluid in nature and are likely to adjust throughout the course of the year as incremental data is reported – particularly in the event(s) of forecast variance. For now, we offer up what the model is currently signaling to us for each country.

 

 

ASIA

 

Australia

  • 2012 Equity Market Performance: +13.5% vs. a regional median gain of +17.7%
  • 2012 FX Performance (vs. USD): +1.8% vs. a regional median gain of +2.6%
  • 2012 Sovereign Debt Performance (10YR tenor, local currency): -40bps to 3.27%
  • Full-Year 2013 G/I/P Outlook: Quad #3 (slower GROWTH; faster INFLATION)
  • Key Callout for 2013: N/A
  • Active Fundamental Investment Ideas: We have held a bearish bias on the Aussie dollar (TAIL) and the Aussie equity market (TAIL) since JUN 5, 2012. While our timing has been off here, we continue to view the Australian economy as among the next shoes to drop amid the popping of Bubble #3 (commodities) and China’s economic rebalancing agenda.

SIZING UP ASIA & LATIN AMERICA FOR 2013 - AUSTRALIA

 

China

  • 2012 Equity Market Performance: +3.2% vs. a regional median gain of +17.7%
  • 2012 FX Performance (vs. USD): +1.1% vs. a regional median gain of +2.6%
  • 2012 Sovereign Debt Performance (10YR tenor, local currency): +15bps to 3.59%
  • Full-Year 2013 G/I/P Outlook: Quad #2 (faster GROWTH; faster INFLATION)
  • Key Callout for 2013: Our outlook for INFLATION in China is currently a bit hawkish relative to consensus at the present juncture.
  • Active Fundamental Investment Ideas: We have held a bullish bias on Chinese consumer stocks (TREND) since DEC 10, 2012.

SIZING UP ASIA & LATIN AMERICA FOR 2013 - CHINA

 

Hong Kong

  • 2012 Equity Market Performance: +22.9% vs. a regional median gain of +17.7%
  • 2012 FX Performance (vs. USD): +0.2% vs. a regional median gain of +2.6%
  • 2012 Sovereign Debt Performance (10YR tenor, local currency): -89bps to 0.63%
  • Full-Year 2013 G/I/P Outlook: Quad #1 (faster GROWTH; slower INFLATION)
  • Key Callout for 2013: Our outlook for INFLATION in Hong Kong is currently well shy of consensus at the present juncture.
  • Active Fundamental Investment Ideas: We have held a bullish bias on the Hong Kong equity market (TREND) since NOV 16, 2012.

SIZING UP ASIA & LATIN AMERICA FOR 2013 - HONG KONG

 

India

  • 2012 Equity Market Performance: +25.7% vs. a regional median gain of +17.7%
  • 2012 FX Performance (vs. USD): -3.1% vs. a regional median gain of +2.6%
  • 2012 Sovereign Debt Performance (10YR tenor, local currency): -52bps to 8.05%
  • Full-Year 2013 G/I/P Outlook: Quad #2 (faster GROWTH; faster INFLATION)
  • Key Callout for 2013: N/A
  • Active Fundamental Investment Ideas: N/A

SIZING UP ASIA & LATIN AMERICA FOR 2013 - INDIA

 

Indonesia

  • 2012 Equity Market Performance: +12.9% vs. a regional median gain of +17.7%
  • 2012 FX Performance (vs. USD): -5.5% vs. a regional median gain of +2.6%
  • 2012 Sovereign Debt Performance (10YR tenor, local currency): -84bps to 5.19%
  • Full-Year 2013 G/I/P Outlook: Quad #3 (slower GROWTH; faster INFLATION)
  • Key Callout for 2013: Our outlook for INFLATION in Indonesia is currently a bit dovish relative to consensus at the present juncture.
  • Active Fundamental Investment Ideas: N/A

SIZING UP ASIA & LATIN AMERICA FOR 2013 - INDONESIA

 

Japan

  • 2012 Equity Market Performance: +22.9% vs. a regional median gain of +17.7%
  • 2012 FX Performance (vs. USD): -11.3% vs. a regional median gain of +2.6%
  • 2012 Sovereign Debt Performance (10YR tenor, local currency): -20bps to 0.79%
  • Full-Year 2013 G/I/P Outlook: Quad #3 (slower GROWTH; faster INFLATION)
  • Key Callout for 2013: Our outlooks for GROWTH and INFLATION in Japan are both currently well above consensus at the present juncture.
  • Active Fundamental Investment Ideas: We have held a bearish bias on the Japanese yen (TREND, TAIL) since SEP 27, 2012.

SIZING UP ASIA & LATIN AMERICA FOR 2013 - JAPAN

 

Malaysia

  • 2012 Equity Market Performance: +10.3% vs. a regional median gain of +17.7%
  • 2012 FX Performance (vs. USD): +3.6% vs. a regional median gain of +2.6%
  • 2012 Sovereign Debt Performance (10YR tenor, local currency): -20bps to 3.5%
  • Full-Year 2013 G/I/P Outlook: Quad #2-3
  • Key Callout for 2013: N/A
  • Active Fundamental Investment Ideas: N/A

SIZING UP ASIA & LATIN AMERICA FOR 2013 - MALAYSIA

 

New Zealand

  • 2012 Equity Market Performance: +20.9% vs. a regional median gain of +17.7%
  • 2012 FX Performance (vs. USD): +6.6% vs. a regional median gain of +2.6%
  • 2012 Sovereign Debt Performance (10YR tenor, local currency): -30bps to 3.52%
  • Full-Year 2013 G/I/P Outlook: Quad #3 (slower GROWTH; faster INFLATION)
  • Key Callout for 2013: Our outlooks for GROWTH and INFLATION in New Zealand are both currently well shy of consensus at the present juncture.
  • Active Fundamental Investment Ideas: N/A, though the New Zealand dollar is currently screening as a candidate on the SHORT side.

SIZING UP ASIA & LATIN AMERICA FOR 2013 - NEW ZEALAND

 

Philippines

  • 2012 Equity Market Performance: +33% vs. a regional median gain of +17.7%
  • 2012 FX Performance (vs. USD): +6.8% vs. a regional median gain of +2.6%
  • 2012 Sovereign Debt Performance (10YR tenor, local currency): -101bps to 4.4%
  • Full-Year 2013 G/I/P Outlook: Quad #3 (slower GROWTH; faster INFLATION)
  • Key Callout for 2013: Our outlook for GROWTH in the Philippines is currently well above consensus at the present juncture.
  • Active Fundamental Investment Ideas: N/A; while Filipino stock market remains a long-term TAIL favorite of ours as a result of its prudent POLICY and robust GROWTH outlook, we are strategically on the sidelines for now.

SIZING UP ASIA & LATIN AMERICA FOR 2013 - PHILIPPINES

 

Singapore

  • 2012 Equity Market Performance: +19.7% vs. a regional median gain of +17.7%
  • 2012 FX Performance (vs. USD): +6.2% vs. a regional median gain of +2.6%
  • 2012 Sovereign Debt Performance (10YR tenor, local currency): -33bps to 1.3%
  • Full-Year 2013 G/I/P Outlook: Quad #1 (faster GROWTH; slower INFLATION)
  • Key Callout for 2013: Our outlook for GROWTH in Singapore is currently well above consensus at the present juncture.
  • Active Fundamental Investment Ideas: We have held a bullish bias on the Singaporean equity market (TREND) since DEC 21, 2012.

SIZING UP ASIA & LATIN AMERICA FOR 2013 - SINGAPORE

 

South Korea

  • 2012 Equity Market Performance: +9.4% vs. a regional median gain of +17.7%
  • 2012 FX Performance (vs. USD): +9.1% vs. a regional median gain of +2.6%
  • 2012 Sovereign Debt Performance (10YR tenor, local currency): -63bps to 3.16%
  • Full-Year 2013 G/I/P Outlook: Quad #2 (faster GROWTH; faster INFLATION)
  • Key Callout for 2013: N/A
  • Active Fundamental Investment Ideas: We have held a bullish bias on the South Korean won (TREND) since NOV 1, 2012 and a bullish bias on the South Korean equity market (TREND) since DEC 27, 2012.

SIZING UP ASIA & LATIN AMERICA FOR 2013 - SOUTH KOREA

 

Taiwan

  • 2012 Equity Market Performance: +8.9% vs. a regional median gain of +17.7%
  • 2012 FX Performance (vs. USD): +4.3% vs. a regional median gain of +2.6%
  • 2012 Sovereign Debt Performance (10YR tenor, local currency): -12bps to 1.17%
  • Full-Year 2013 G/I/P Outlook: Quad #1 (faster GROWTH; slower INFLATION)
  • Key Callout for 2013: Our outlook GROWTH in Taiwan is currently a bit shy of consensus at the present juncture.
  • Active Fundamental Investment Ideas: N/A

SIZING UP ASIA & LATIN AMERICA FOR 2013 - TAIWAN

 

Thailand

  • 2012 Equity Market Performance: +35.8% vs. a regional median gain of +17.7%
  • 2012 FX Performance (vs. USD): +3.2% vs. a regional median gain of +2.6%
  • 2012 Sovereign Debt Performance (10YR tenor, local currency): +22bps to 3.51%
  • Full-Year 2013 G/I/P Outlook: Quad #2 (faster GROWTH; faster INFLATION)
  • Key Callout for 2013: Out outlook for GROWTH in Thailand is currently well above consensus at the present juncture.
  • Active Fundamental Investment Ideas: N/A

SIZING UP ASIA & LATIN AMERICA FOR 2013 - THAILAND

 

Vietnam

  • 2012 Equity Market Performance: +17.7% vs. a regional median gain of +17.7%
  • 2012 FX Performance (vs. USD): +1% vs. a regional median gain of +2.6%
  • 2012 Sovereign Debt Performance (10YR tenor, local currency): -230bps to 10.2%
  • Full-Year 2013 G/I/P Outlook: N/A, due to non-standard data reporting
  • Key Callout for 2013: N/A
  • Active Fundamental Investment Ideas: N/A

 

LATIN AMERICA

 

Argentina

  • 2012 Equity Market Performance: +15.9% vs. a regional median gain of +11.7%
  • 2012 FX Performance (vs. USD): -12.4% vs. a regional median gain of +7%
  • 2012 Sovereign Debt Performance (10YR tenor, local currency): N/A
  • Full-Year 2013 G/I/P Outlook: Quad #2 (faster GROWTH; faster INFLATION)
  • Key Callout for 2013: N/A
  • Active Fundamental Investment Ideas: We have held a bearish bias on the Argentine peso (TAIL) and the Argentine equity market (TAIL) since NOV 4, 2010. While we continue to view the Argentine economy as a clear loser amid the popping of Bubble #3 (commodities) and China’s economic rebalancing agenda, we are increasingly inclined to strategically suspend our bearish bias on Argentina’s equity market in the near term, as a 2013 currency devaluation may spur Venezuelan-like stock market gains.

SIZING UP ASIA & LATIN AMERICA FOR 2013 - ARGENTINA

 

Brazil

  • 2012 Equity Market Performance: +7.4% vs. a regional median gain of +11.7%
  • 2012 FX Performance (vs. USD): -9.1% vs. a regional median gain of +7%
  • 2012 Sovereign Debt Performance (10YR tenor, local currency): -212bps to 9.17%
  • Full-Year 2013 G/I/P Outlook: Quad #2 (faster GROWTH; faster INFLATION)
  • Key Callout for 2013: Our outlook for GROWTH in Brazil is a bit higher than consensus at the present juncture.
  • Active Fundamental Investment Ideas: We have held a bullish bias on Brazilian consumer and industrial stocks (TREND) since DEC 5, 2012.

SIZING UP ASIA & LATIN AMERICA FOR 2013 - BRAZIL

 

Chile

  • 2012 Equity Market Performance: +3% vs. a regional median gain of +11.7%
  • 2012 FX Performance (vs. USD): +8.5% vs. a regional median gain of +7%
  • 2012 Sovereign Debt Performance (10YR tenor, local currency): N/A
  • Full-Year 2013 G/I/P Outlook: Quad #4 (slower GROWTH; slower INFLATION)
  • Key Callout for 2013: Our outlook for GROWTH in Chile is well above consensus at the present juncture. Our outlook for INFLATION in Chile is a bit dovish relative to consensus at the present juncture.
  • Active Fundamental Investment Ideas: N/A

SIZING UP ASIA & LATIN AMERICA FOR 2013 - CHILE

 

Colombia

  • 2012 Equity Market Performance: +16.2% vs. a regional median gain of +11.7%
  • 2012 FX Performance (vs. USD): +9.7% vs. a regional median gain of +7%
  • 2012 Sovereign Debt Performance (10YR tenor, local currency): -191bps to 5.47%
  • Full-Year 2013 G/I/P Outlook: Quad #1 (faster GROWTH; slower INFLATION)
  • Key Callout for 2013: Our outlook for INFLATION in Colombia is a bit dovish relative to consensus at the present juncture.
  • Active Fundamental Investment Ideas: N/A, though the Colombian equity market is currently screening as a candidate on the LONG side.

SIZING UP ASIA & LATIN AMERICA FOR 2013 - COLOMBIA

 

Mexico

  • 2012 Equity Market Performance: +17.9% vs. a regional median gain of +11.7%
  • 2012 FX Performance (vs. USD): +8.5% vs. a regional median gain of +7%
  • 2012 Sovereign Debt Performance (10YR tenor, local currency): -113bps to 5.38%
  • Full-Year 2013 G/I/P Outlook: Quad #2 (faster GROWTH; faster INFLATION)
  • Key Callout for 2013: Our outlook for INFLATION in Mexico is a bit hawkish relative to consensus at the present juncture.
  • Active Fundamental Investment Ideas: N/A, though we continue to expect further gains in the Mexican equity market in anticipation of meaningful economic and fiscal reform.

SIZING UP ASIA & LATIN AMERICA FOR 2013 - MEXICO

 

Peru

  • 2012 Equity Market Performance: +5.9% vs. a regional median gain of +11.7%
  • 2012 FX Performance (vs. USD): +5.4% vs. a regional median gain of +7%
  • 2012 Sovereign Debt Performance (10YR tenor, local currency): N/A
  • Full-Year 2013 G/I/P Outlook: Quad #1 (faster GROWTH; slower INFLATION)
  • Key Callout for 2013: Our outlook for GROWTH in Peru is well above consensus at the present juncture.
  • Active Fundamental Investment Ideas: We have held a bullish bias on the Peruvian equity market (TREND) since DEC 31, 2012.

SIZING UP ASIA & LATIN AMERICA FOR 2013 - PERU

 

Venezuela

  • 2012 Equity Market Performance: +302.8% vs. a regional median gain of +11.7%
  • 2012 FX Performance (vs. USD): N/A
  • 2012 Sovereign Debt Performance (10YR tenor, local currency): N/A
  • Full-Year 2013 G/I/P Outlook: Quad #3 (slower GROWTH; faster INFLATION)
  • Key Callout for 2013: Our outlook for GROWTH in Venezuela is well shy of consensus at the present juncture. Our outlook for INFLATION in Venezuela is well above consensus at the present juncture.
  • Active Fundamental Investment Ideas: N/A, though we continue to see heightened risk of a material devaluation of the Venezuelan bolivar over the intermediate term.

SIZING UP ASIA & LATIN AMERICA FOR 2013 - VENEZUELA

 

Darius Dale

Senior Analyst


Bullish: SP500 Levels, Refreshed

Takeaway: After yesterday’s monster move, for this market to be flat on the day is saying something.

POSITIONS: 11 LONGS, 7 SHORTS

 

After yesterday’s monster move, for this market to be flat on the day is saying something.

 

It either means tomorrow’s jobs print is going to surprise on the upside, or people are about to get run over again on the long side – either way, we’ll have a big move!

 

I respect the signals above the noise – and both our research and risk management signals are telling me that there’s an increasing probability that headline employment trends continue to improve.

 

Yes, that would be bad for bonds; bad for gold, relative to stocks (2 of my 7 SHORTS are GLD and GDX).

 

Across our core risk management durations, here are the lines that matter to me most:

 

  1. Immediate-term TRADE resistance = 1474
  2. Immediate-term TRADE support = 1449
  3. Intermediate-term TREND support = 1419

 

In other words, the SP500 is in a Bullish Formation (bullish TRADE, TREND, and TAIL), and the research signal on #GrowthStabilizing confirms that risk management signal.

 

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Bullish: SP500 Levels, Refreshed - SPX


real-time alerts

real edge in real-time

This indispensable trading tool is based on a risk management signaling process Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough developed during his years as a hedge fund manager and continues to refine. Nearly every trading day, you’ll receive Keith’s latest signals - buy, sell, short or cover.

SSS Focus on Margins, Not Sales

Takeaway: A strong final week wasn’t enough to save the month as retailers had already turned to aggressive markdowns.

A strong final week wasn’t enough to save the month as the dwindling number of retailers that are still reporting sales results had already turned to aggressive markdowns elevating Q4 margin related earnings risk.

 

December Retail Sales coming in better than expected with 12 companies beating expectations compared to 6 misses was little consolation in light of recently lowered numbers. With tough January comps ahead, one of the key factors to year-end performance and start to 2013 will be inventory induced margin risk. On the whole, the industry was fairly lean headed into the holidays, but in the absence of early holiday demand that mattered little into month’s end as retailers accelerated markdown activity.


In the chart below, note how there was only one week in the final five weeks of the year where sales growth bested prior year levels. This chart is important because it is the ICSC index, which is a weighted index of 80 (non-food and non-auto) retailers across sub-categories that dwarfs the 18 that currently report same store sales numbers publicly. Note that starting in February, that sample will be down to 15. Our sense is that it will be closer to zero in a year, and we’ll close the chapter of information flow that has always been same store sales day.


ICSC Same Store Sales Index

 

SSS Focus on Margins, Not Sales - ICSC


Back to the call-outs...

For the second consecutive quarter, KSS takes home the prize for negative callout of the day. This hardly comes as a surprise with KSS the most over-inventoried department store retailer headed into the holidays (see charts below). As a result, KSS confirmed they turned to deeper than planned discounts in order to clear the decks headed into fiscal 2013 taking down 4Q estimates by more than 20% in the process. Retailers with more favorable sales/inventory levels (i.e. at less risk) include TJX, ROST, and TGT.


The biggest positive callouts were COST and JWN both of which came in nearly 2x expectations of ~4.5% comps. While more impressive for COST given its sheer size, the strength of JWN at the high-end is perhaps most notable given recent concerns regarding luxury retail. This is a positive read-through for handbag related names (FNP, KORS, COH) with the category highlighted as running above comp average.


Other Callouts:

  • Off-price strength with ROST and TJX only retailers to raise numbers into year-end. It’s little coincidence that both companies sport superior sales/inventory levels relative to peers.
  • GPS (+5% vs +3.9%E) Old Navy coming in VERY strong in December rebounding from three consecutive months of slowing growth – offset in part by deceleration in all other segments.
    • Lap JCP induced comp reacceleration starting February.
    • Back to the well approving $1Bn share Repo plan (replacing prior $1Bn plan)
  • M (+4.1% vs +4.1%E) in-line with online up +52%
    • Announced closing 6 stores to account for $2-$4mm in related costs (plan to open 9 in 2013)
    • Taking 4Q outlook down $1.91-$1.96 (was $1.94-$1.99)
  • TGT (flat vs +1.4%E) strong finish to Dec not enough to offset first 3-weeks
    • Inventory in “very good condition at month-end”
  • KSS (+3.4% vs +1.4%E) sales ‘came late in the holiday’- as a result at deeper discounts than planned
    • Taking ‘necessary markdowns in 4Q to manage inventory’ into Spring
    • Sharply reducing outlook to $1.60-$1.62 (was $2.00-$2.08E) in 4Q and $4.11-$4.13 (was $4.52-$4.60)

 

SSS Focus on Margins, Not Sales - MidTier wJCP SIGMAs

 

SSS Focus on Margins, Not Sales - MidTier SIGMAs

 

SSS Focus on Margins, Not Sales - GPS SSS by Seg

 

 




    Materials & Dial-in Information for The Affordable Care Act Expert Call

    Materials & Dial-in Information for The Affordable Care Act Expert Call - KenBur.dialin

     

        

    Please CLICK HERE to access the materials for this call and dial in 5-10 minutes prior to the 1:00pm EST start time using the number provided below. If you have any further questions email .

    • Toll Free Number:
    • Direct Dial Number:
    • Conference Code: 939528#

     

     

    The Hedgeye Healthcare Team, led by Tom Tobin, will be hosting an expert conference call today, at 1:00pm EST featuring industry expert Ken Burdick, former Senior Executive of United HealthGroup and Chief Executive Officer and President of Blue Cross Blue Shield of Minnesota.

    The call will analyze the impact of the Affordable Care Act across the healthcare industry, addressing the opportunities and risks associated with the implementation of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. Ken Burdick has more than 25 years of experience in managed healthcare and his insight to the implementation of this act will be extremely insightful and constructive in managing risk across the managed care names. 


    KEY TOPICS WILL INCLUDE:

    • Will employers drop coverage? Penalties? Taxes?
    • Insurers versus exchanges
    • Consolidation among providers and payers  

    ABOUT KEN BURDICK:

    • Served as SVP of Medicaid Business at Coventry Health Care Inc. and managed its Medicaid and Behavioral Health (MHNet) businesses
    • Served as President and CEO of Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Minnesota
    • October 1995 to May 2009 employed by UnitedHealth Group
      • May 2008 to May 2009, served as the CEO of Secure Horizons, a Medicare business
      • November 2006 to May 2008, served as the CEO of United Healthcare's Commercial Business
      • April 2004 to November 2006, served as CEO of United Healthcare's Southwest Region and President of United Healthcare Public Sector
      • January 2000 to April 2004, served as the CEO of United Healthcare of Arizona
      • Prior to 2000, served as the head of the national underwriting organization for all lines of business and the general manager of the central Texas operation 
      • Served as the CEO and President of United HealthCare Services, Inc.
    • Director of United Biologics, LLC since October 2012
    • Serves as a Director of A.T. Still University of Health Sciences
    • Serves on the Board of Directors for Preferred Homecare and PASR, a non-profit Board advancing school readiness throughout Minnesota
    • Earned his bachelor's degree from Amherst College and a law degree from University of Connecticut School of Law  

    YUM: Plenty To Like

    Yum! Brands (YUM), owner of KFC, Taco Bell and Pizza Hut, is one of our best long ideas in Restaurants. We think Yum! is attractive on the long side for 2013 for several reasons: the company is better diversified than Starbucks (SBUX) and McDonald’s (MCD), the recent sell off in the stock makes for a compelling entry point for investors and the company’s improving US business complements strong international unit growth in 2013. Recent news related to a KFC China chicken supplier and its excessive use of antibiotics in its feed has pushed YUM shares lower but we see the most important fundamentals related to the stock as positive from here.

     

    YUM: Plenty To Like - yum levels

     

    The chart posted above highlights our macro team's quantitative view of the stocks. Currently, YUM is in a bearish formation with near-term TRADE and intermediate-term TREND resistance at $67.45 and $68.81, respectively.

     

    YUM: Plenty To Like - yum index vs cd


    Daily Trading Ranges

    20 Proprietary Risk Ranges

    Daily Trading Ranges is designed to help you understand where you’re buying and selling within the risk range and help you make better sales at the top end of the range and purchases at the low end.

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