According to our proprietary model, despite one extra Friday relative to last November, we're projecting November 2012 revenue for the Strip to come in between -6% to -10%, assuming normal slot and table hold. This would break a streak of two consecutive months of gains. One reason is the abnormally high slot hold in November 2011 (8.4%); as a result, we believe slot win YoY change would tumble double digits; even if we assume unchanged slot hold YoY, gaming revenue (ex baccarat) would still be lower. Another reason is the disappointing transportation metrics: McCarran Airport traffic slipped 0.3% in November while taxi trips fell 2.7% YoY. The important slot handle metric is also likely to shrink again.
Here are our projections:
