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LV STRIP: BACK IN RED FOR NOVEMBER

According to our proprietary model, despite one extra Friday relative to last November, we're projecting November 2012 revenue for the Strip to come in between -6% to -10%, assuming normal slot and table hold.  This would break a streak of two consecutive months of gains.  One reason is the abnormally high slot hold in November 2011 (8.4%); as a result, we believe slot win YoY change would tumble double digits; even if we assume unchanged slot hold YoY, gaming revenue (ex baccarat) would still be lower.  Another reason is the disappointing transportation metrics:  McCarran Airport traffic slipped 0.3% in November while taxi trips fell 2.7% YoY.  The important slot handle metric is also likely to shrink again.

Here are our projections:

LV STRIP:  BACK IN RED FOR NOVEMBER - strip