TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – December 21, 2012
As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 21 points or 1.02% downside to 1429 and 0.44% upside to 1450.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- YIELD CURVE: 1.50 from 1.53
- VIX closed at 17.67 1 day percent change of 1.79%
- BONDS – Treasuries haven’t budged on the budget thing – the 10yr is down 1 beep in the last 24hrs to 1.76% and remains well above the TREND breakout line of 1.69%. Currency markets aren’t moving much either – EUR/USD is down 20bps.
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):
- 8:30am: Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, Nov. (prior -0.56)
- 8:30am: Personal Income, Nov., est. 0.3% (prior 0.0%)
- 8:30am: Personal Spending, Nov., est. 0.4% (prior -0.2%)
- 8:30am: PCE Deflator M/m, Nov., est. -0.1% (prior 0.1%)
- 8:30am: PCE Core M/m, Nov., est. 0.1% (prior 0.1%)
- 8:30am: Durable Goods Orders, Nov., est. 0.3% (prior 0.0%, revised 0.5%)
- 8:30am: Durable Goods Ex-Transportation, Nov., est. -0.2% (prior 1.5%, revised 1.8%)
- 8:30am: Capital Goods Orders Non-Defense, Ex-Aircraft, Nov., est. 0.0% (prior 1.7%, revised 2.9%)
- 9:55am: U. of Michigan Confidence, Dec. final, est. 75.0 (prior 74.5)
- 11am: Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity, Dec. est. -5 (prior -6)
- 11am: Fed to buy $1.5b-$2.25b notes in 02/15/2036–11/15/2042 sector
- 1pm: Baker Hughes rig count
GOVERNMENT:
- Washington Day Ahead
- NRA holds news conf. on Newtown, Conn., slayings, 10:45am
- EPA may announce latest version of Boiler MACT rule
- CFTC holds closed hearing on enforcement matters, 10am
- FDA decision date on Alexza’s Adasuve for agitation tied to schizophrenia, J&J’s bedaquiline for multidrug-resistant TB
WHAT TO WATCH
- Boehner drops "Plan B" as budget deal efforts turn to disarray
- Citigroup said to give CCA managers 75% stake in funds for free
- Aviva agrees to sell U.S. unit to Athene for $1.8b
- Greenbrier calls for talks after rejecting Icahn sweetened bid
- Crane buys bill-machine maker MEI Conlux from Bain-Advantage
- Nokia signs patent-licensing deal with RIM, ending all disputes
- SEC enforcement chief Khuzami said to leave agency next month
- Facebook’s Instagram scraps changes amid outcry over content
- ArcelorMittal reports $4.3b writedown of Europe units
- Nike 2Q profit tops ests. as North America sales gain
- RIM shrs fall on concern that service rev. will suffer
- IBM judge refuses to rubber stamp SEC foreign bribery settlement
- U.K. 3Q GDP rises 0.9%, revised from prior est. of 1%
- BlackRock sees distortions in country ratings seeking S&P change
- Fiscal Cliff, U.S. Home Sales, 2013: Wk Ahead Dec. 22-Jan. 5
EARNINGS:
- Walgreen (WAG) 7:30am, $0.70 - Preview
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
COMMODITIES – you’d think this would be the ideal freak-out morning to be long Gold – nope; Gold snapped its long-term TAIL line of $1671 yesterday and didn’t look back – Gold and Oil are in Bearish Formations; if you need to get some short exposure on in a hurry this morning, we say stick with commodities and their related equities all day long.
- Gold Gains in New York as Central Banks Boost Bullion Reserves
- Copper Traders Turn Bearish as Hedge Funds Buy More: Commodities
- Oil Declines Most in Two Weeks as U.S. House Delays Budget Vote
- Copper Gains on Short Covering After China’s Imports Rebound
- Tiberius Forecasts Gains in Commodities Indexes Next Year
- Brazilian Arabica Coffee Trades at Discount, U.S. Roaster Buys
- Oil May Rise on Higher Demand as Inventories Fall, Survey Shows
- China Copper Imports Rebound as Exports Rise to Five-Month High
- LNG Three-Year Rally Seen Over as Reactors Start: Energy Markets
- Bearish Gold Options May Signal More Declines: Chart of the Day
- Brazil Doubles Gold Reserves as Central Banks Buy Bullion
- China Coal-Import Growth Seen Halting on Better Inland Transport
- Aluminum Surplus May Widen 22% on China, Mideast Output Growth
- Argentine Forecast Gap Keeps Wheat Market Guessing on Crop Size
CURRENCIES
EUROPEAN MARKETS
ASIAN MARKETS
ASIA – both Asian and European stock markets act a lot better than the US Equity Futures do – given how much both have ripped, that’s a pleasant surprise. China only down -0.69% after a monster melt-up and Singapore down -0.38%; nothing in Asia snapped even an immediate-term TRADE line of support.
MIDDLE EAST
The Hedgeye Macro Team