THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – December 21, 2012


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 21 points or 1.02% downside to 1429 and 0.44% upside to 1450.    

                                                                                                                                                           

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 10


CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 1.50 from 1.53
  • VIX closed at 17.67 1 day percent change of 1.79%
  • BONDS – Treasuries haven’t budged on the budget thing – the 10yr is down 1 beep in the last 24hrs to 1.76% and remains well above the TREND breakout line of 1.69%. Currency markets aren’t moving much either – EUR/USD is down 20bps.

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 8:30am: Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, Nov. (prior -0.56)
  • 8:30am: Personal Income, Nov., est. 0.3% (prior 0.0%)
  • 8:30am: Personal Spending, Nov., est. 0.4% (prior -0.2%)
  • 8:30am: PCE Deflator M/m, Nov., est. -0.1% (prior 0.1%)
  • 8:30am: PCE Core M/m, Nov., est. 0.1% (prior 0.1%)
  • 8:30am: Durable Goods Orders, Nov., est. 0.3% (prior 0.0%, revised 0.5%)
  • 8:30am: Durable Goods Ex-Transportation, Nov., est. -0.2% (prior 1.5%, revised 1.8%)
  • 8:30am: Capital Goods Orders Non-Defense, Ex-Aircraft, Nov., est. 0.0% (prior 1.7%, revised 2.9%)
  • 9:55am: U. of Michigan Confidence, Dec. final, est. 75.0 (prior 74.5)
  • 11am: Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity, Dec. est. -5 (prior -6)
  • 11am: Fed to buy $1.5b-$2.25b notes in 02/15/2036–11/15/2042 sector
  • 1pm: Baker Hughes rig count

GOVERNMENT:

    • Washington Day Ahead
    • NRA holds news conf. on Newtown, Conn., slayings, 10:45am
    • EPA may announce latest version of Boiler MACT rule
    • CFTC holds closed hearing on enforcement matters, 10am
    • FDA decision date on Alexza’s Adasuve for agitation tied to schizophrenia, J&J’s bedaquiline for multidrug-resistant TB

WHAT TO WATCH

  • Boehner drops "Plan B" as budget deal efforts turn to disarray
  • Citigroup said to give CCA managers 75% stake in funds for free
  • Aviva agrees to sell U.S. unit to Athene for $1.8b
  • Greenbrier calls for talks after rejecting Icahn sweetened bid
  • Crane buys bill-machine maker MEI Conlux from Bain-Advantage
  • Nokia signs patent-licensing deal with RIM, ending all disputes
  • SEC enforcement chief Khuzami said to leave agency next month
  • Facebook’s Instagram scraps changes amid outcry over content
  • ArcelorMittal reports $4.3b writedown of Europe units
  • Nike 2Q profit tops ests. as North America sales gain
  • RIM shrs fall on concern that service rev. will suffer
  • IBM judge refuses to rubber stamp SEC foreign bribery settlement
  • U.K. 3Q GDP rises 0.9%, revised from prior est. of 1%
  • BlackRock sees distortions in country ratings seeking S&P change
  • Fiscal Cliff, U.S. Home Sales, 2013: Wk Ahead Dec. 22-Jan. 5

EARNINGS:

    • Walgreen (WAG) 7:30am, $0.70 - Preview

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)


COMMODITIES – you’d think this would be the ideal freak-out morning to be long Gold – nope; Gold snapped its long-term TAIL line of $1671 yesterday and didn’t look back – Gold and Oil are in Bearish Formations; if you need to get some short exposure on in a hurry this morning, we say stick with commodities and their related equities all day long.

  • Gold Gains in New York as Central Banks Boost Bullion Reserves
  • Copper Traders Turn Bearish as Hedge Funds Buy More: Commodities
  • Oil Declines Most in Two Weeks as U.S. House Delays Budget Vote
  • Copper Gains on Short Covering After China’s Imports Rebound
  • Tiberius Forecasts Gains in Commodities Indexes Next Year
  • Brazilian Arabica Coffee Trades at Discount, U.S. Roaster Buys
  • Oil May Rise on Higher Demand as Inventories Fall, Survey Shows
  • China Copper Imports Rebound as Exports Rise to Five-Month High
  • LNG Three-Year Rally Seen Over as Reactors Start: Energy Markets
  • Bearish Gold Options May Signal More Declines: Chart of the Day
  • Brazil Doubles Gold Reserves as Central Banks Buy Bullion
  • China Coal-Import Growth Seen Halting on Better Inland Transport
  • Aluminum Surplus May Widen 22% on China, Mideast Output Growth
  • Argentine Forecast Gap Keeps Wheat Market Guessing on Crop Size

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

CURRENCIES


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

ASIAN MARKETS


ASIA – both Asian and European stock markets act a lot better than the US Equity Futures do – given how much both have ripped, that’s a pleasant surprise. China only down -0.69% after a monster melt-up and Singapore down -0.38%; nothing in Asia snapped even an immediate-term TRADE line of support.

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

MIDDLE EAST


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 9

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 

 

 



Another French Revolution?

"Don't be complacent," writes Hedgeye Managing Director Neil Howe. "Tectonic shifts are underway in France. Is there the prospect of the new Sixth Republic? C'est vraiment possible."

read more

Cartoon of the Day: The Trend is Your Friend

"All of the key trending macro data suggests the U.S. economy is accelerating," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough says.

read more

A Sneak Peek At Hedgeye's 2017 GDP Estimates

Here's an inside look at our GDP estimates versus Wall Street consensus.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Green Thumb

So far, 64 of 498 companies in the S&P 500 have reported aggregate sales and earnings growth of 6.1% and 16.8% respectively.

read more

Europe's Battles Against Apple, Google, Innovation & Jobs

"“I am very concerned the E.U. maintains a battle against the American giants while doing everything possible to sustain so-called national champions," writes economist Daniel Lacalle. "Attacking innovation doesn’t create jobs.”

read more

An Open Letter to Pandora Management...

"Please stop leaking information to the press," writes Hedgeye Internet & Media analyst Hesham Shaaban. "You are getting in your own way, and blowing up your shareholders in the process."

read more

A 'Toxic Cocktail' Brewing for A Best Idea Short

The first quarter earnings pre-announcement today is not the end of the story for Mednax (MD). Rising labor costs and slowing volume is a toxic cocktail...

read more

Energy Stocks: Time to Buy? Here's What You Need to Know

If you're heavily-invested in Energy stocks it's been a heck of a year. Energy is the worst-performing sector in the S&P 500 year-to-date and value investors are now hunting for bargains in the oil patch. Before you buy, here's what you need to know.

read more

McCullough: ‘My 1-Minute Summary of My Institutional Meetings in NYC Yesterday’

What are even some of the smartest investors in the world missing right now?

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Political Portfolio Positioning

Leave your politics out of your portfolio.

read more

Jim Rickards Answers the Hedgeye 21

Bestselling author Jim Rickards says if he could be any animal he’d be a T-Rex. He also loves bonds and hates equities. Check out all of his answers to the Hedgeye 21.

read more