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Takeaway: SA initial jobless claims were higher for the first time in 5 weeks, but we expect them to resume their trend lower in the coming months.

Back to Normal

Last week jobless claims rose 18k to 361k, but the 4-week rolling average declined 14k to 368k and is now back to pre-Sandy levels. For the last month we've profiled NY, NJ and PA's share of claims. As of the most recent state data, which is released on a 1-week lag vs the nationally reported data, NY and PA have fully re-normalized. New Jersey, however, still remains at around 150% of its long-term average rate of claims (down from 408% the week of November 17th) , suggesting there may still be a small further tailwind in store for claims. 

Overall, we expect claims will continue to move lower in the coming months (through Februrary), propelled by a seasonality distortion tailwind. This, coupled with the strengthening/accelerating housing data, should keep the wind at the back of large-cap financials BAC & C. 

 

JOSHUA STEINER: JOBLESS CLAIMS: THE LABOR MARKET REMAINS A SECTOR TAILWIND - 1

 

JOSHUA STEINER: JOBLESS CLAIMS: THE LABOR MARKET REMAINS A SECTOR TAILWIND - 2

 

JOSHUA STEINER: JOBLESS CLAIMS: THE LABOR MARKET REMAINS A SECTOR TAILWIND - 3

 

JOSHUA STEINER: JOBLESS CLAIMS: THE LABOR MARKET REMAINS A SECTOR TAILWIND - 4

 

JOSHUA STEINER: JOBLESS CLAIMS: THE LABOR MARKET REMAINS A SECTOR TAILWIND - 5

 

JOSHUA STEINER: JOBLESS CLAIMS: THE LABOR MARKET REMAINS A SECTOR TAILWIND - 6

 

JOSHUA STEINER: JOBLESS CLAIMS: THE LABOR MARKET REMAINS A SECTOR TAILWIND - 7

 

JOSHUA STEINER: JOBLESS CLAIMS: THE LABOR MARKET REMAINS A SECTOR TAILWIND - 8
 

JOSHUA STEINER: JOBLESS CLAIMS: THE LABOR MARKET REMAINS A SECTOR TAILWIND - 9

 

JOSHUA STEINER: JOBLESS CLAIMS: THE LABOR MARKET REMAINS A SECTOR TAILWIND - 10

 

JOSHUA STEINER: JOBLESS CLAIMS: THE LABOR MARKET REMAINS A SECTOR TAILWIND - 11

 

JOSHUA STEINER: JOBLESS CLAIMS: THE LABOR MARKET REMAINS A SECTOR TAILWIND - 12 

Joshua Steiner, CFA

Robert Belsky