THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – December 19, 2012


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 24 points or 1.51% downside to 1425 and 0.15% upside to 1449.         

                                                                                                                                                      

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

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EQUITY SENTIMENT:


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CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 1.54 from 1.54
  • VIX closed at 15.57 1 day percent change of -4.71%

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, Dec. 14 (prior 6.2%)
  • 8:30am: Housing Starts, Nov., est. 871k (prior 894k)
  • 8:30am: Housing Starts M/m, Nov., est. -2.6% (prior 3.6%)
  • 8:30am: Building Permits, Nov., est. 875k (prior 868k)
  • 8:30am: Building Permits M/m, Nov., est. 0.8% (prior -2.5%)
  • 10:30am: DoE inventory data
  • 11am: Fed to buy $1.5b-$2.25b notes in 2036-2042 sector
  • 1pm: U.S. Treasury to sell $29b 7Y notes

GOVERNMENT:

    • House, Senate in session
    • Senate Banking panel meets on consumer credit reports, 10am
    • House Education and Workforce hears from PBGC Chairman Joshua Gotbaum on agency’s financial outlook, 10am
    • U.S. Chamber of Commerce holds a discussion on innovation in agriculture, with USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack, Cargill CEO Gregory Page, Monsanto EVP Jerry Steiner, 8:30am
    • Energy Dept.’s Wind-Powering America director Jonathan Bartlett provides overview of program plans on webinar, 3pm
    • Commerce Dept. issues final ruling on anti-dumping, countervailing duties for washers from Mexico, South Korea
    • FDA Commissioner Margaret Hamburg holds media briefing before meeting with states on compounding pharmacies, 2:30pm
    • NRA says it will offer “meaningful” steps to end mass shootings after Newtown deaths
    • State Dept. cited for “grossly inadequate” security at Libya mission
    • AmEx’s Chenault said to be discussed at White House for Treasury

WHAT TO WATCH

  • UBS fined $1.5b by regulators for manipulating Libor
  • Boehner "Plan B" vote aims to show Obama Republican tax aversion
  • Knight backs Getco bid of $3.75 a share in cash, stock
  • Oracle sales, profit top ests. on cloud computing demand
  • Apple-Samsung judge weighing damages after rejecting sales ban
  • U.S. reaches deal with Penguin as it pursues Apple e-book case
  • Google antitrust decision by FTC said to be postponed to 2013
  • Ford’s COO says isn’t losing customers after recalls
  • Japan exports slide even as yen’s drop improves 2013 outlook
  • BOE voted 8-1 to leave QE unchanged as euro risks receded
  • SEC said to weigh ex-CFTC enforcement chief Geoffrey Aronow as general counsel
  • Facebook incites backlash with changes in Instagram user terms
  • Icahn’s American Railcar bidding for Greenbrier triggers rebuff
  • Martha Stewart CEO Gersh may step down this wk: N.Y. Post
  • Time Inc. names Martha Nelson as 1st female editor-in-chief

EARNINGS:

    • Navistar (NAV) 6am, $(1.08) - Preview
    • General Mills (GIS) 7am, $0.79 - Preview
    • Actuant (ATU) 7:30am, $0.50
    • FedEx (FDX) 7:30am, $1.41 - Preview
    • Herman Miller (MLHR) 4pm, $0.39
    • Paychex (PAYX) 4:01pm, $0.41
    • Steelcase (SCS) 4:01pm, $0.23
    • Accenture (ACN) 4:01pm, $1.04
    • Jabil Circuit (JBL) 4:02pm, $0.56
    • Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) 4:15pm, $1.02

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Brent Crude Gains for Second Day as U.S. Stockpiles Decline
  • Potash Seen Falling as Asia Wields Purchasing Power: Commodities
  • Gold Gains as Drop to Three-Month Low Spurs Purchases, ETPs Rise
  • Copper Trims Decline on Outlook for China’s Economy: LME Preview
  • Wheat Advances for Second Day on Signs of Rising Import Demand
  • Palm Oil Drops on Concern Demand to Decline Amid Record Reserves
  • Rubber Climbs to Seven-Month High on Japan Stimulus Optimism
  • Less Profit in Sight as Maersk Overcapacity Hits Growth: Freight
  • BP Whiting Delay Puts WTI-Brent Drop on Hold: Energy Markets
  • Coffee Gains on Stockpiles Before Options Expiry; Sugar Retreats
  • Mining Stocks Seen as Cheap Gold Alternative: Chart of the Day
  • Indonesia Raises Minimum Tin Purity for Exports: Trade Ministry
  • Rebar to Continue Rally on Buying Signal: Technical Analysis
  • Lead Reaches 15-Month High as Stop-Loss Orders Trigger Buying

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CURRENCIES


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EUROPEAN MARKETS


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ASIAN MARKETS

 

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MIDDLE EAST


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The Hedgeye Macro Team

 


Did the US Economy Just “Collapse”? "Worst Personal Spending Since 2009"?

This is a brief note written by Hedgeye U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake on 4/28 dispelling media reporting that “US GDP collapses to 0.7%, the lowest number in three years with the worst personal spending since 2009.”

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7 Tweets Summing Up What You Need to Know About Today's GDP Report

"There's a tremendous opportunity to educate people in our profession on how GDP is stated and projected," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote today. Here's everything you need to know about today's GDP report.

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Cartoon of the Day: Crash Test Bear

In the past six months, U.S. stock indices are up between +12% and +18%.

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GOLD: A Deep Dive on What’s Next with a Top Commodities Strategist

“If you saved in gold over the past 20 to 25 years rather than any currency anywhere in the world, gold has outperformed all these currencies,” says Stefan Wieler, Vice President of Goldmoney in this edition of Real Conversations.

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Exact Sciences Up +24% This Week... What's Next? | $EXAS

We remain long Exact Sciences in the Hedgeye Healthcare Position Monitor.

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Inside the Atlanta Fed's Flawed GDP Tracker

"The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNowcast model, while useful at amalgamating investor consensus on one singular GDP estimate for any given quarter, is certainly not the end-all-be-all of forecasting U.S. GDP," writes Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale.

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Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

"Most people who are making a ton of money right now are focused on growth companies seeing accelerations," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look. "That’s what happens in Quad 1."

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People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

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UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

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Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

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Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

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An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

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