THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – December 19, 2012


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 24 points or 1.51% downside to 1425 and 0.15% upside to 1449.         

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

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EQUITY SENTIMENT:


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CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 1.54 from 1.54
  • VIX closed at 15.57 1 day percent change of -4.71%

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, Dec. 14 (prior 6.2%)
  • 8:30am: Housing Starts, Nov., est. 871k (prior 894k)
  • 8:30am: Housing Starts M/m, Nov., est. -2.6% (prior 3.6%)
  • 8:30am: Building Permits, Nov., est. 875k (prior 868k)
  • 8:30am: Building Permits M/m, Nov., est. 0.8% (prior -2.5%)
  • 10:30am: DoE inventory data
  • 11am: Fed to buy $1.5b-$2.25b notes in 2036-2042 sector
  • 1pm: U.S. Treasury to sell $29b 7Y notes

GOVERNMENT:

    • House, Senate in session
    • Senate Banking panel meets on consumer credit reports, 10am
    • House Education and Workforce hears from PBGC Chairman Joshua Gotbaum on agency’s financial outlook, 10am
    • U.S. Chamber of Commerce holds a discussion on innovation in agriculture, with USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack, Cargill CEO Gregory Page, Monsanto EVP Jerry Steiner, 8:30am
    • Energy Dept.’s Wind-Powering America director Jonathan Bartlett provides overview of program plans on webinar, 3pm
    • Commerce Dept. issues final ruling on anti-dumping, countervailing duties for washers from Mexico, South Korea
    • FDA Commissioner Margaret Hamburg holds media briefing before meeting with states on compounding pharmacies, 2:30pm
    • NRA says it will offer “meaningful” steps to end mass shootings after Newtown deaths
    • State Dept. cited for “grossly inadequate” security at Libya mission
    • AmEx’s Chenault said to be discussed at White House for Treasury

WHAT TO WATCH

  • UBS fined $1.5b by regulators for manipulating Libor
  • Boehner "Plan B" vote aims to show Obama Republican tax aversion
  • Knight backs Getco bid of $3.75 a share in cash, stock
  • Oracle sales, profit top ests. on cloud computing demand
  • Apple-Samsung judge weighing damages after rejecting sales ban
  • U.S. reaches deal with Penguin as it pursues Apple e-book case
  • Google antitrust decision by FTC said to be postponed to 2013
  • Ford’s COO says isn’t losing customers after recalls
  • Japan exports slide even as yen’s drop improves 2013 outlook
  • BOE voted 8-1 to leave QE unchanged as euro risks receded
  • SEC said to weigh ex-CFTC enforcement chief Geoffrey Aronow as general counsel
  • Facebook incites backlash with changes in Instagram user terms
  • Icahn’s American Railcar bidding for Greenbrier triggers rebuff
  • Martha Stewart CEO Gersh may step down this wk: N.Y. Post
  • Time Inc. names Martha Nelson as 1st female editor-in-chief

EARNINGS:

    • Navistar (NAV) 6am, $(1.08) - Preview
    • General Mills (GIS) 7am, $0.79 - Preview
    • Actuant (ATU) 7:30am, $0.50
    • FedEx (FDX) 7:30am, $1.41 - Preview
    • Herman Miller (MLHR) 4pm, $0.39
    • Paychex (PAYX) 4:01pm, $0.41
    • Steelcase (SCS) 4:01pm, $0.23
    • Accenture (ACN) 4:01pm, $1.04
    • Jabil Circuit (JBL) 4:02pm, $0.56
    • Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) 4:15pm, $1.02

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Brent Crude Gains for Second Day as U.S. Stockpiles Decline
  • Potash Seen Falling as Asia Wields Purchasing Power: Commodities
  • Gold Gains as Drop to Three-Month Low Spurs Purchases, ETPs Rise
  • Copper Trims Decline on Outlook for China’s Economy: LME Preview
  • Wheat Advances for Second Day on Signs of Rising Import Demand
  • Palm Oil Drops on Concern Demand to Decline Amid Record Reserves
  • Rubber Climbs to Seven-Month High on Japan Stimulus Optimism
  • Less Profit in Sight as Maersk Overcapacity Hits Growth: Freight
  • BP Whiting Delay Puts WTI-Brent Drop on Hold: Energy Markets
  • Coffee Gains on Stockpiles Before Options Expiry; Sugar Retreats
  • Mining Stocks Seen as Cheap Gold Alternative: Chart of the Day
  • Indonesia Raises Minimum Tin Purity for Exports: Trade Ministry
  • Rebar to Continue Rally on Buying Signal: Technical Analysis
  • Lead Reaches 15-Month High as Stop-Loss Orders Trigger Buying

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CURRENCIES


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EUROPEAN MARKETS


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ASIAN MARKETS

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MIDDLE EAST


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The Hedgeye Macro Team