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TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – December 14, 2012

As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 25 points or 0.67% downside to 1410 and 1.10% upside to 1435.     

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

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EQUITY SENTIMENT:


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CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 1.49 from 1.48
  • VIX closed at 16.56 1 day percent change of 3.82%

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 8:30am: Consumer Price Index M/m, Nov. est. -0.2% (prior 0.1%)
  • 8:30am: CPI ex-Food & Energy M/m, Nov. est. 0.2% (prior 0.2%)
  • 8:58am: Markit US PMI Preliminary, Dec. est. 51.8 (prior 52.4)
  • 9:15am: Industrial Production, Nov. est. 0.3% (prior -0.4%)
  • 9:15am: Capacity Utilization, Nov. est. 78.0% (prior 77.8%)
  • 11am: Fed to buy $1.5b-$2.25b notes due 2/15/36-11/15/42
  • 1pm: Baker Hughes rig count
  • 3pm: Fed holds open meeting in D.C. on foreign bank standards

GOVERNMENT:

    • Elisse Walter succeeds Mary Schapiro as chairman of SEC
    • Federal Reserve Board will hold open board meeting to discuss standards for foreign banks operating in the U.S., 3pm
    • Deadline for state governors to tell federal government whether they plan to build health exchanges, control sale of health insurance in their states after 2013
    • Deadline set by FERC for Barclays to respond to show-cause order in market manipulation case, $470m penalty

WHAT TO WATCH

  • Obama meets with Boehner as pressure builds for U.S. budget deal
  • PPG buys Akzo’s U.S. household paints unit for $1.05b
  • Hostess said to attract first-round bids from Wal-Mart, Kroger
  • S&P ordered by Japanese regulator to improve ratings system
  • GE may boost its qtr dividend to 20c/shr from 17c/shr
  • Alcatel wins $2.1b loans from Goldman, Credit Suisse
  • UBS said to face fines of over $1b in Libor-fixing probes
  • Another Facebook lockup expires; FB shrs up 34% since Oct. 31
  • Schulze seen making bid for Best Buy; faces Dec. 16 deadline
  • FTC may rule on Google search in coming days: reports
  • Europe Nov. car sales fall as EU demand at 19-year low
  • Manufacturing in China may grow at faster pace in Dec., HSBC data show
  • Liberty Media contacts possible buyers for Starz: NY Post
  • ITC judge to issue findings in patent-infringement case against Intel brought by X2y Attenuators
  • Bank of America says MBIA defaulted on contested securities
  • Southwest Airlines, Illinois Tool Works host investor mtgs
  • Japan Elections, S. Korea, U.S. Housing: Week Ahead Dec. 15-22

EARNINGS:

    • North West (NWC CN) C$0.38

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)


COMMODITIES – CRB Index down another -1% on the wk to 292 and Gold down again this morning is a very good thing for #GrowthStabilizing, globally, on the margin. Economic recoveries don’t occur w/ $150 Oil and $1900 Gold, fyi. Sets up great for our LONG Consumption vs SHORT Commodities theme.

  • Oil Heads for Weekly Gain on China, U.S. Manufacturing Outlook
  • Wheat Bulls Retreat as U.S. Estimates Roil Markets: Commodities
  • Copper Extends Fifth Weekly Gain After China Data Boost Outlook
  • Gold Swings Between Gains and Drops on Stimulus, Budget Concerns
  • SHFE Copper Stockpiles Climb as Lead Jumps to 14-Month High
  • Soybeans Advance to One-Week High as U.S. Export Sales Increase
  • OPEC Status Reduced to Sentiment Driver as Oil Share Wanes
  • Rebar Climbs to Five-Month High as China Data Boost Outlook
  • Sugar Exports From Pakistan May Miss Target on Global Surplus
  • Oil May Drop on Uncertainty in Budget Talks, Survey Shows
  • Ethanol’s Discount to Gasoline Narrows on U.S. Budget Stalemate
  • Air Cargo Slowdown Puts Squeeze on Specialist Carriers: Freight
  • China’s 2012-2013 Corn Imports to Decline, Sinograin Says
  • Rubber Jumps to Six-Month High on China’s Manufacturing Outlook

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CURRENCIES


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EUROPEAN MARKETS


GERMANY – now the DAX (which is crushing the Dow) is A) making higher-highs vs the SEP highs (US stocks haven’t, yet) and B) the high-frequency economic data supports it (Germany’s Service PMI reading for early DEC 52.1 vs 49.7 NOV, finally signaling some expansion – the ZEW was solid earlier this wk as well). Both China and Germany going the right way at the same time – that’s new.


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ASIAN MARKETS


CHINA – massive melt-up in Chinese stocks overnight; +4.3% taking the Shanghai Comp to +9.6% in 2 weeks – that’ll get the machines’ attention; so will a breakout > 2095 TREND resistance (now support) for the Chinese A-shares Index. China has had its best moves in the last 5 years when commodity deflation starts to take hold – time for Bernanke to get out of the world’s way.

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MIDDLE EAST


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The Hedgeye Macro Team