THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – December 10, 2012


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 16 points or 0.96% downside to 1405 and 0.17% upside to 1421.    

                                                                                                                                                           

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 10


CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 1.40 from 1.38
  • VIX closed at 16.05 1 day percent change of 0.94%

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

 

EARNINGS:

  • Dollar General (DG) 7am, $0.60
  • Hudson’s Bay (HBC CN) Pre-mkt
  • Fed’s 2-day meeting begins
  • 7:30am: NFIB Small Business Optimism, Nov. (prior 92.5)
  • 7:45am/8:55am: ICSC/Redbook weekly retail sales
  • 8:30am: Trade Deficit, Oct., est. -$42.6b (prior -$41.5b)
  • 8:30am: Wasde report on agricultural commodities
  • 10am: Wholesale Inventories, Oct., est. 0.4% (prior 1.1%)
  • 10am: IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, Dec. est., 50.0 (prior 48.6)
  • 10am: JOLTs Job Openings, Oct. (prior 3.561m)
  • 11am: Fed to buy $1b-$1.5b notes due 1/15/19-2/15/42
  • 1:30am: U.S. Treasury to sell 4W, $25b 52W bills
  • 1pm: U.S. Treasury to sell $32b 3Y notes
  • 4:30pm: API inventories

GOVERNMENT:

    • House, Senate in session
    • Bunge CEO Alberto Weisser speaks at Johns Hopkins Univ. on global issues in agriculture, Noon
    • Weekly release of FDA warning letters
    • ITC issues final ruling on whether to uphold penalties on imports of washing machines from Korea, Mexico, 9:30am
    • Global Intellectual Property Center hosts U.S. Patent and Trademark Office intellectual property attaches from around world to discuss enforcement of IP rights outside U.S., 9:30am

WHAT TO WATCH

  • Fed seen expanding assets to $4t with Treasury buying
  • U.S. fiscal dispute shows sign of thaw before year-end deadline
  • U.S. Treasury to sell last 234.2m shares in AIG at sixth offering
  • Blackstone said to seek over $2b for Asia property
  • BofA gets judge’s approval to proceed with Taylor Bean fraud suit
  • HSBC to pay $1.92b to settle U.S. probes of laundering
  • ThyssenKrupp scraps dividend after $4.7b writedown at Americas unit
  • Diageo ends talks with Jb Y Compania, Lanceros on Cuervo brand
  • AMR’s Horton open to private-equity funding for bankruptcy exit
  • Spain borrowing costs fall as Treasury boosts 2013 prefunding
  • Texas Instruments sees 4Q sales in line with estimates

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)


OIL – Bernanke’s Bubbles look like bubbles in the rear view mirror more and more by the day; CRB Index is down -8.7% from the Bernanke Top (SEP14) and Oil continues in a Bearish Formation as food prices deflate as well. All very good developments for global consumption.

  • Oil Rebounds From One-Month Low on German Investor Confidence
  • Tightest Corn Crop Since ‘74 as Goldman Sees Rally: Commodities
  • Contango in Gasoil Reaches Longest in 16 Months: Energy Markets
  • Wheat Reaches 8-Week Low on Signs of Waning U.S. Export Demand
  • Gold Halts Three-Day Advance as Investors Await Fed Meeting
  • Copper Slides as Investors Await Fed’s U.S. Economic Forecasts
  • Sugar Rises on Signs of Processor Demand in Brazil; Cocoa Falls
  • OPEC November Crude Output at Lowest in One Year as Saudis Cut
  • Russia Cuts Grain Exports, Seen by SovEcon Raising 2013 Imports
  • Iron Ore Climbs to Four-Month High as China Growth Boosts Demand
  • ThyssenKrupp Cancels Dividend After $4.7 Billion Writedown
  • Scorpio Seen Rising as Tanker Rates Gain Most Since ’08: Freight
  • Cooking Oil Imports by India Seen Dropping on Reserves, New Crop
  • Angola Says Only Iraq, Saudi Arabia in Race for Top OPEC Job

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

CURRENCIES


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS


GERMANY – impressive is as impressive does; the DAX shrugged off the Italians yesterday and has held its ahead above the SEP closing highs (7451); that level was resistance – now its support, as the DAX crushes the Dow for 2012 YTD.


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

ASIAN MARKETS


CHINA – Shanghai Comp failed to follow through 2095 TREND resistance overnight after Chinese Yuan based loans continued to surprise on the downside (523B in loans for NOV = down -7% y/y); don’t expect them to do what we do – reflating the credit bubble not in their plan, yet.

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

MIDDLE EAST


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 9

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 

 

 



Another French Revolution?

"Don't be complacent," writes Hedgeye Managing Director Neil Howe. "Tectonic shifts are underway in France. Is there the prospect of the new Sixth Republic? C'est vraiment possible."

read more

Cartoon of the Day: The Trend is Your Friend

"All of the key trending macro data suggests the U.S. economy is accelerating," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough says.

read more

A Sneak Peek At Hedgeye's 2017 GDP Estimates

Here's an inside look at our GDP estimates versus Wall Street consensus.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Green Thumb

So far, 64 of 498 companies in the S&P 500 have reported aggregate sales and earnings growth of 6.1% and 16.8% respectively.

read more

Europe's Battles Against Apple, Google, Innovation & Jobs

"“I am very concerned the E.U. maintains a battle against the American giants while doing everything possible to sustain so-called national champions," writes economist Daniel Lacalle. "Attacking innovation doesn’t create jobs.”

read more

An Open Letter to Pandora Management...

"Please stop leaking information to the press," writes Hedgeye Internet & Media analyst Hesham Shaaban. "You are getting in your own way, and blowing up your shareholders in the process."

read more

A 'Toxic Cocktail' Brewing for A Best Idea Short

The first quarter earnings pre-announcement today is not the end of the story for Mednax (MD). Rising labor costs and slowing volume is a toxic cocktail...

read more

Energy Stocks: Time to Buy? Here's What You Need to Know

If you're heavily-invested in Energy stocks it's been a heck of a year. Energy is the worst-performing sector in the S&P 500 year-to-date and value investors are now hunting for bargains in the oil patch. Before you buy, here's what you need to know.

read more

McCullough: ‘My 1-Minute Summary of My Institutional Meetings in NYC Yesterday’

What are even some of the smartest investors in the world missing right now?

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Political Portfolio Positioning

Leave your politics out of your portfolio.

read more

Jim Rickards Answers the Hedgeye 21

Bestselling author Jim Rickards says if he could be any animal he’d be a T-Rex. He also loves bonds and hates equities. Check out all of his answers to the Hedgeye 21.

read more