The AECO spot gas price is trading at a $0.06/MMBtu premium to the Henry Hub spot (in USD). The NYMEX curve has slid since mid-November on a warmer-than-expected start to the 2012/13 winter in the US northeast, but AECO has held firm above $3.25/MMBtu (USD) on cold weather in Western Canada and a swifter fall in supply.
What’s interesting is that weather forecasts currently expect warmer-than-normal temps in the southern US for Jan/Feb/March. Conversely, forecasts call for normal temps on the east coast and a colder-than-normal winter in western Canada for the same time period. As such, expect the differential to remain tight; the $0.06 premium compares to the 2007-2011 average differential for the time-step of a $0.37/MMBtu discount.
