TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – December 10, 2012
As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 13 points or 0.85% downside to 1406 and 0.07% upside to 1419.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- YIELD CURVE: 1.37 from 1.38
- VIX closed at 15.9 1 day percent change of -4.10%
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):
- 11am: Fed to buy $1.5b-$2.25b notes due 2/15/36-11/15/42
- 11:30am: U.S. Treasury to sell $32b 3-mo., $28b 6-mo. bills
- 12:45pm:Bank of England Governor King speaks at Economic Club of New York
GOVERNMENT:
- President Obama to deliver speech in Detroit to promote his federal budget deficit plan
- FDIC Systemic Resolution Advisory Committee meets to discuss Title II of Dodd-Frank Act
WHAT TO WATCH
- Obama, Boehner held private meeting at White House on budget
- Greece extends deadline for debt buyback after nearing target
- Canada’s approval of $20b energy takeovers may spark more foreign investments
- Dragon Systems founders take Goldman to trial over advice
- SEC said to investigate SAC Capital’s trading in Intermune and Weight Watchers
- Apple, Google team up for $500m-plus Kodak patents bid
- AIG sells ILFC majority stake to Chinese investors for $4.23b
- Japan sinks into recession as opposition leader Abe calls for more stimulus
- China’s exports rose less than forecast in November
- Ingersoll-Rand said to plan share buyback, asset spinoff
- Apple/Samsung ruling on U.S. phone sales may come this week
- Wanxiang outbids Johnson Controls for most of A123 assets
- Suntory weighs takeover of whiskey maker Beam, official says
- Mattel returns to appeals panel that threw out Bratz verdict
- ‘Skyfall’ reclaims top spot with ticket sales of $11m
EARNINGS:
- Ferrellgas Partners (FGP) 7am, $(0.23)
- John Wiley & Sons (JW/A) 8am, $0.82
- Casey’s General Stores (CASY) 4pm, $0.85
- Teavana Holdings (TEA) 4:01pm, ($0.01)
- Greif (GEF) 4:07pm, $0.55
- ABM Industries (ABM) 5pm, $0.40
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
- Oil Rebounds as German Exports Advance; OPEC to Meet in Vienna
- Speculators Cut Bullish Bets on Fiscal Cliff Talks: Commodities
- Japanese Aluminum Fees Said to Decline for First Time in a Year
- Gold Gains in London on Drop to One-Month Low, Stimulus Outlook
- Copper Reaches 7-Week High as Chinese Industrial Output Expands
- Corn Falls to Three-Week Low as South American Outlook Improves
- Sugar Declines on Indications of Ample Supplies; Cocoa Slides
- Gold Set for Retreat on Momentum Indicator: Technical Analysis
- China Crude Imports Rise to Six-Month High as Oil Refining Jumps
- Tin Shipments From Indonesia Drop for First Time in Three Months
- Iron-Ore Exports From Australia Jump to Record on China Recovery
- Palm Oil Stockpiles in Malaysia Climb to Record as Exports Drop
- Japan Suspends Beef Imports From Brazil on Mad-Cow Disease
- Hedge Funds Quit U.S. Natural Gas as Cold Fades: Energy Markets
CURRENCIES
USD – 1st up week in 3 for the USD last week punished Commodity prices, and we liked it. Oil in particular is back into a Bearish Formation after snapping TRADE support of $109.63 Brent; TREND in USD is higher, not lower (up for 8 of last 11 weeks), so we’ll see if getting a cliff deal strengthens it further – not clear on that yet either way.
EUROPEAN MARKETS
ITALY – Monti probably took a peek at down -2.4% y/y Q3 GDP growth and said we’re out! So is whoever bought last week’s lower-highs in Italian equities; MIB index down hard (-3.4%) moving back below 15,615 TRADE support and back into a Bearish Formation – risk happens fast.
ASIAN MARKETS
CHINA – Chinese stocks moved out of crash mode putting on a +4.1% move last week and saw +1.1% follow through this morning back about my TRADE line of 2039 support (Shanghai); that was bullish, and so was NOV Industrial Production growth (10.1% vs 9.6% in OCT) and Retail Sales (+14.9% vs 14.5%); CPI rose to 2% from 1.7% only neg news.
MIDDLE EAST
The Hedgeye Macro Team
