Initial jobless claims are now back to pre-Hurricane Sandy levels. Two weeks ago, examining state level data of NY, PA and NJ showed that these three stated accounted for 20.3% of jobless claims while only accounting for 13% of the population. That difference, 7.3%, is down from 12.4% in the previous week. If we adjust the claims number from two weeks ago, 393k, for this over-representation we find normalized claims should be around 366k (393k / 1.073). This morning's print of 370k is consistent with that estimation. One month from now, we expect numbers will be fully normalized.
