TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – December 6, 2012
As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 15 points or 0.37% downside to 1404 and 0.69% upside to 1419.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- YIELD CURVE: 1.34 from 1.35
- VIX closed at 16.46, 1 day percent change of -3.86%
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):
- 7am: Bank of England interest rates announcement
- 7:45am: ECB interest rate announcement
- 7:30am: Challenger Job Cuts Y/y, Nov. (prior 11.6%)
- 8am: RBC Consumer Outlook Index, Dec. (prior 48.9)
- 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, Dec. 1 est 380k (prior 393k)
- 8:30am: ECB’s Draghi holds news conference
- 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, Dec. 2 (prior -33)
- 11am: U.S. Treasury to announce plan for auctions of 1Y bills, 3Y notes, 10Y notes, 30Y bonds
- 11am: Fed to purchase $1.5b-$2.25b notes due 2/15/36 11/15/42
- 12pm: Household Change in Net Worth, 3Q (prior -$322b)
- 2:00pm: Fed to purchase $4.25b-$5.25b notes due 12/31/18 11/15/20
GOVERNMENT:
- Obama, first family attend National Christmas Tree lighting
- Obama, Romney presidential campaigns file last spending reports
- Senate Judiciary to vote on collection of location data from companies such as Apple, Google
- FedEx CEO Frederick Smith speaks at Economic Club of Washington
- Recreational marijuana legalized in Washington state
WHAT TO WATCH
- Euro area pushed into recession as trade slows, spending drops
- France sells bonds at record-low yields
- HTC to make quarterly royalty payments to Apple based on vol.
- Zynga files with Nevada to operate online games w/ real money
- UPS said to offer remedies in 13 countries to save TNT deal
- FTC says Motorola Mobility shouldn’t get injunction in patent suit against Apple
- Carl Icahn reports lowered stake in Oshkosh
- Garmin to replace R.R. Donnelley on S&P 500
- Boeing says 787 Dreamliner didn’t lose power during generator failure
- Intel CEO says favors internal candidate to take over top spot
- Apple may try to get ban on future Samsung smartphone products; patent infringement case to be heard by judge today
- China Mobile says Apple must discuss benefit sharing on IPhone
- SAC’s Steinberg said to be unindicted co-conspirator at trial
EARNINGS:
- Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM CN) 5:35am, C$1.99
- Smithfield Foods (SFD) 6:00am, $0.43
- Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD CN) 6:30am, C$1.81
- H&R Block Inc (HRB) 7:00am, $(0.41)
- Lululemon Athletica (LULU) 7:15am, $0.37
- Dollarama Inc (DOL CN) 7:30am, C$0.70
- National Bank of Canada (NA CN) 7:30am, C$1.93
- Uti Worldwide (UTIW) 8:00am, $0.24
- Esterline Technologies Corp (ESL) 4:00pm, $1.59
- Cooper Cos (COO) 4:01pm, $1.55
- Forest City Enterprises (FCE/A) 4:02pm, $0.01
- Palo Alto Networks (PANW) 4:05pm, $0.03
- Harry Winston Diamond (HW CN) 5:00pm, $0.12
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
OIL – both Brent and WTIC continue to make lower-highs on low volume rallies – and both remain in Bearish Formations in my model. We expanded our Commodities Bubble short positioning yesterday to US Energy stocks (XLE) and Russia (RSX); the sell side’s top rated Sector is still Energy “because it’s cheap”, using the wrong commodity prices of course.
GOLD – not good. My intermediate-term TREND line of $1711 is now broken and being confirmed on the downside. Gold Miners getting hammered as they remain over-owned by funds seeing redemptions.
- World Food Prices Fell a Second Month in November on Oils, Grain
- Russian Wheat Facing Coldest Winter in Two Decades: Commodities
- Copper Declines on Concerns About Global Economic Growth
- Oil Trades Near One-Week Low as U.S. Distillate Supplies Surge
- Freeport’s Oil-Gas Bet Prompts Biggest Slump in 4 Years: Energy
- Morgan Stanley Backs Gold, Corn, Soybeans as Best Picks in 2013
- Sugar Falls on Mounting Speculation of Oversupply; Coffee Climbs
- Gold Declines for Third Day Toward One-Month Low as Dollar Gains
- Palm Oil Reserves in Malaysia Seen Holding Near Highest Ever
- Mississippi Water Level Buoys Odds of Keeping River Open Longer
- Japan Buys Most Milling Wheat in Four Months From U.S., Canada
- OPEC’s Biggest Cut Since 2009 Looms Next Year: Energy Markets
- Gold Set to Return to Run of Records Next Year: Chart of the Day
- Soybeans Gain as USDA May Report Lower South American Outlook
CURRENCIES
EUROPEAN MARKETS
GERMANY – who cares what the Dow is “up YTD” when you could be up +28% YTD owning the German DAX, powering past the September closing highs? With the SP500 -4.4% from the Bernanke SEP Top, this +1.1% move this morning in Germany is definitely the macro move of the morning.
ASIAN MARKETS
MIDDLE EAST
The Hedgeye Macro Team