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TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – December 6, 2012


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 15 points or 0.37% downside to 1404 and 0.69% upside to 1419.       

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

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EQUITY SENTIMENT:


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CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 1.34 from 1.35
  • VIX closed at 16.46, 1 day percent change of -3.86%

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 7am: Bank of England interest rates announcement
  • 7:45am: ECB interest rate announcement
  • 7:30am: Challenger Job Cuts Y/y, Nov. (prior 11.6%)
  • 8am: RBC Consumer Outlook Index, Dec. (prior 48.9)
  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, Dec. 1 est 380k (prior 393k)
  • 8:30am: ECB’s Draghi holds news conference
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, Dec. 2 (prior -33)
  • 11am: U.S. Treasury to announce plan for auctions of 1Y bills, 3Y notes, 10Y notes, 30Y bonds
  • 11am: Fed to purchase $1.5b-$2.25b notes due 2/15/36 11/15/42
  • 12pm: Household Change in Net Worth, 3Q (prior -$322b)
  • 2:00pm: Fed to purchase $4.25b-$5.25b notes due 12/31/18 11/15/20

GOVERNMENT:

    • Obama, first family attend National Christmas Tree lighting
    • Obama, Romney presidential campaigns file last spending reports
    • Senate Judiciary to vote on collection of location data from companies such as Apple, Google
    • FedEx CEO Frederick Smith speaks at Economic Club of Washington
    • Recreational marijuana legalized in Washington state

WHAT TO WATCH

  • Euro area pushed into recession as trade slows, spending drops
  • France sells bonds at record-low yields
  • HTC to make quarterly royalty payments to Apple based on vol.
  • Zynga files with Nevada to operate online games w/ real money
  • UPS said to offer remedies in 13 countries to save TNT deal
  • FTC says Motorola Mobility shouldn’t get injunction in patent suit against Apple
  • Carl Icahn reports lowered stake in Oshkosh
  • Garmin to replace R.R. Donnelley on S&P 500
  • Boeing says 787 Dreamliner didn’t lose power during generator failure
  • Intel CEO says favors internal candidate to take over top spot
  • Apple may try to get ban on future Samsung smartphone products; patent infringement case to be heard by judge today
  • China Mobile says Apple must discuss benefit sharing on IPhone
  • SAC’s Steinberg said to be unindicted co-conspirator at trial

EARNINGS:

    • Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM CN) 5:35am, C$1.99
    • Smithfield Foods (SFD) 6:00am, $0.43
    • Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD CN) 6:30am, C$1.81
    • H&R Block Inc (HRB) 7:00am, $(0.41)
    • Lululemon Athletica (LULU) 7:15am, $0.37
    • Dollarama Inc (DOL CN) 7:30am, C$0.70
    • National Bank of Canada (NA CN) 7:30am, C$1.93
    • Uti Worldwide (UTIW) 8:00am, $0.24
    • Esterline Technologies Corp (ESL) 4:00pm, $1.59
    • Cooper Cos (COO) 4:01pm, $1.55
    • Forest City Enterprises (FCE/A) 4:02pm, $0.01
    • Palo Alto Networks (PANW) 4:05pm, $0.03
    • Harry Winston Diamond (HW CN) 5:00pm, $0.12

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

OIL – both Brent and WTIC continue to make lower-highs on low volume rallies – and both remain in Bearish Formations in my model. We expanded our Commodities Bubble short positioning yesterday to US Energy stocks (XLE) and Russia (RSX); the sell side’s top rated Sector is still Energy “because it’s cheap”, using the wrong commodity prices of course.

GOLD – not good. My intermediate-term TREND line of $1711 is now broken and being confirmed on the downside. Gold Miners getting hammered as they remain over-owned by funds seeing redemptions.

  • World Food Prices Fell a Second Month in November on Oils, Grain
  • Russian Wheat Facing Coldest Winter in Two Decades: Commodities
  • Copper Declines on Concerns About Global Economic Growth
  • Oil Trades Near One-Week Low as U.S. Distillate Supplies Surge
  • Freeport’s Oil-Gas Bet Prompts Biggest Slump in 4 Years: Energy
  • Morgan Stanley Backs Gold, Corn, Soybeans as Best Picks in 2013
  • Sugar Falls on Mounting Speculation of Oversupply; Coffee Climbs
  • Gold Declines for Third Day Toward One-Month Low as Dollar Gains
  • Palm Oil Reserves in Malaysia Seen Holding Near Highest Ever
  • Mississippi Water Level Buoys Odds of Keeping River Open Longer
  • Japan Buys Most Milling Wheat in Four Months From U.S., Canada
  • OPEC’s Biggest Cut Since 2009 Looms Next Year: Energy Markets
  • Gold Set to Return to Run of Records Next Year: Chart of the Day
  • Soybeans Gain as USDA May Report Lower South American Outlook

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CURRENCIES


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EUROPEAN MARKETS


GERMANY – who cares what the Dow is “up YTD” when you could be up +28% YTD owning the German DAX, powering past the September closing highs? With the SP500 -4.4% from the Bernanke SEP Top, this +1.1% move this morning in Germany is definitely the macro move of the morning.


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ASIAN MARKETS

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MIDDLE EAST


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The Hedgeye Macro Team