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TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – December 4, 2012


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 15 points or 0.39% downside to 1404 and 0.68% upside to 1419.                

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

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EQUITY SENTIMENT:


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 10


CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 1.39 from 1.37

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 7:45am/8:55am: ICSC/Redbook weekly retail sales
  • 9:45am: ISM New York, Nov. (prior 45.9)
  • 10:45am: Fed’s Tarullo speaks at Brookings Institution in Washington
  • 11:30am: U.S. Treasury to sell 4-wk bills
  • 4:30pm: API inventories

GOVERNMENT:

    • House, Senate in session
    • FDIC issues report on state of U.S. banking industry, 9:30am
    • Obama meets with state governors to discuss fiscal cliff, 10am
    • Energy Dept. releases supply, demand forecast through 2040, 1pm

WHAT TO WATCH

  • Qualcomm makes almost 5b investment in Sharp
  • GrainCorp to review increased offer from ADM
  • Sprint unlikely to make counteroffer for MetroPCS: Reuters
  • Student loan debt collection targeted for overhaul in bill
  • Patents in Apple, HTC settlement deal can’t be sealed: CNET
  • Cerberus in talks to join Virtu’s bid for Knight Capital:WSJ
  • Oracle plans to accelerate payment of 3 quarterly dividends
  • Kinder Morgan’s $110m settlement in El Paso case approved
  • Fiscal cliff talks at stalemate over dueling plans on taxes

 EARNINGS:

    • Toll Brothers (TOL), Pre-Mkt, $0.24
    • Big Lots (BIG) 6am, $(0.26)
    • Bank of Montreal (BMO CN) 6:45am, C$1.43
    • AutoZone (AZO) 7am, $5.39
    • Vail Resorts (MTN) 7:15am, $(1.58)
    • Canadian Western Bank (CWB CN) 8:30am, C$0.59
    • Evertz Technologies (ET CN) 4pm, C$0.26
    • Oxford Industries (OXM) 4pm, $0.21
    • Mattress Firm (MFRM) 4:01pm, $0.46
    • Pandora Media (P) 4:02pm, $0.01

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG


GOLD – maybe not everyone is long Gold, but there’s a fairly broad and buoyant population of bulls. This morning Gold and Silver are down -0.6% and -1.3%, respectively, after last week’s futures/options (net long contracts) ripped a +12-13% wk-over-wk move (Gold was -2.2% last wk). The go-to move of being long Gold/Silver on Dollar Down days not working like it has – that’s new and notable.

  • European Corn Imports Seen Expanding to Second-Highest on Record
  • Record Brazil Coffee Crop Cuts Costs for Starbucks: Commodities
  • Soybeans Advance as Weather Threatens South American Crops
  • Oil Halts Three-Day Advance on Fuel Inventories, Budget Talks
  • Copper Advances for a Fourth Day on Fed Stimulus Speculation
  • Gold Drops to Four-Week Low as Commodities Fall on Budget Talks
  • Robusta Coffee Pares Gains on Vietnam’s Exports; Sugar Climbs
  • Rebar Gains as Recovery in Chinese Stocks Boosts Economy Outlook
  • Delayed Start to India Sugar Cane Crushing Not to Impact Output
  • Chalco to Build Indonesian Alumina Plant to Secure Supplies
  • Gasoline Supplies Rise to August Level in Survey: Energy Markets
  • Olam’s Biggest Bond Sale Only Delays Collapse, Muddy Waters Says
  • Tanker Rates Rising as Ethanol Imports Triple Into U.S.: Freight
  • Iron Ore Outperforms Producers Including BHP, Rio After Rally

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

CURRENCIES


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - cur

EUROPEAN MARKETS


GERMANY  - DAX making its second run for its SEP closing high (7451 on 9/21) this morning. Up small, but higher-highs would be bullish if the DAX can achieve them. Economies haven’t been stock markets in 2012, but given all the cheerleading on what US stocks are “up YTD”, German and Danish stocks are smoking them on both absolute and relative (to the SEP highs).


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

ASIAN MARKETS


INDONESIA – We know, who cares about Indonesia? It only has the 4th largest population in the world. Indonesian stocks lead decliners in Asia overnight, down another -0.8% to a new 1 month low. Something to think about as you think this morning. RBA cuts rates on #GrowthSlowing and the Mining Capex Bubble.

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MIDDLE EAST


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The Hedgeye Macro Team