TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – December 3, 2012
As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 20 points or 0.72% downside to 1406 and 0.69% upside to 1426.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- YIELD CURVE: 1.38 from 1.37
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):
- 8:30am: Corelogic Oct. foreclosures
- 8:58am: Markit US PMI Final, Nov. est. 51.7 (prior 51.4)
- 10am: ISM Manufacturing, Nov. est. 51.5 (prior 51.7)
- 10am: Construction Spending, Oct. est. 0.5% (prior 0.6%)
- 11am: Fed sells $7b-$8b debt due 12/31/2015-1/31/2016
- 11:30am: U.S. Treasury to sell $32b 3-mo., $28b 6-mo. bills
- 12:15pm: Fed’s Rosengren speaks at New York Fed conference
- 1:40pm: Fed’s Bullard speaks in Little Rick, Arkansas
GOVERNMENT:
- House, Senate in session
- Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in Prague
- Democratic Governors to being 2-day conference in Los Angeles
- Federal Housing Finance Agency closes public comment on plan to create standardized system for issuing mortgage bonds
- U.S. High Speed Rail Association opens 3-day conference; to discuss California’s plan for $68b bullet train
WHAT TO WATCH
- Auto sales may have increased 12% in Nov. to highest monthly pace in 4 years
- Rupert Murdoch chooses WSJ editor Robert Thomson to lead publishing spinoff
- UBS said to be close to settlement over Libor-rigging
- EADS says talks on changes to shareholder structure are ongoing
- Starbucks in discussions with U.K. Treasury regarding taxes
- Health Management pressured doctors to admit patients to increase revenue, CBS’s “60 Minutes” reports
- Carl Icahn’s offer to buy Oshkosh expires at midnight; will drop offer if <25% of shares tendered by deadline
- Northrop, other defense contractors speak on fiscal cliff in DC
- Macau gambling rev. climbed 7.9% in Nov. vs est. 8%
- California may fine makers of mobile apps over piracy: San Francisco Chronicle
- North Korea continues plans to test long-range rocket, Japan says will shoot it down if deemed necessary
- Yahoo facing $2.7b non-final verdict in Mexico on charges related to a Yellow Pages listing service
EARNINGS:
- Conn’s (CONN) 7 a.m., $0.27
- Exa (EXA) 4:05 p.m., $0.08
- Casella Waste Systems (CWST) 4:30 p.m., $(0.09)
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
- Crude Trades Near Two-Week High as China Manufacturing Improves
- Hedge Funds Increase Bullish Bets Most Since August: Commodities
- Gold Gains as Physical Demand Improves After Price Decline
- Crop Futures Advance as Demand Increases Amid Supply Concerns
- Copper Swings Between Gains and Drops on Manufacturing Gauges
- Sugar Rises for Third Day on Lower Indian Output; Coffee Falls
- Rebar Jumps Most in Six Weeks on Chinese Manufacturing Data Gain
- Palm Oil Drops for Fifth Day on Indonesian Stockpile Concerns
- Oil Bulls Boost Bets as U.S. Economy Strengthens: Energy Markets
- Russia’s Grain Exports Fall 18% as Wheat Takes Smaller Share
- Auto Aluminum Gains on Steel Thanks to Tighter Fuel Standards
- Nickel-Ore Cargoes from Philippines to China Delayed by Storm
- Goldman Forecasts 7% Return on Commodities in a Year on Energy
- Rubber Climbs to Six-Week High as China Manufacturing Improves
CURRENCIES
USD – get the dollar right and you get most things beta right; last wk was the 2nd consecutive down wk for the Dollar (European and US stocks were up for the 2nd consecutive wk as the inverse correlation on a TREND duration remains close to -0.9 b/t USD and SP500).
EUROPEAN MARKETS
GREECE – thank goodness this is the bullish catalyst every Monday; after rallying last Monday on whatever the news was, Greek stocks closed the wk down -4.2%, but rally +1.3% to another lower-highs on this morning’s funny money news. Net net, the Athex is down -8.2% from the OCT lower-high.
ASIAN MARKETS
CHINA – the Chinese get it; Washington update: Geithner’s “deal” includes changing the rules on the Debt Ceiling (rising debt) and raising, not cutting, “stimulus” spending; Shanghai Comp dropped another 1% to a fresh YTD low before the Greek “news”; China crashing again (-20.4% from the March global #GrowthSlowing peak).
MIDDLE EAST
The Hedgeye Macro Team