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TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – November 30, 2012


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 13 points or 0.70% downside to 1406 and 0.22% upside to 1419.     

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

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EQUITY SENTIMENT:


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 10


CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 1.36 from 1.36
  • BONDS – Treasuries haven’t cared, at all, about the no volume performance chase in US Equities into another month end; #GrowthSlowing expectations continue to dominate both bond yields and fund flows; 10yr down from 1.69% at the start of the wk to 1.62%.

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 8:30am: Personal Income, Oct. est. 0.2% (prior 0.4%)
  • 8:30am: Personal Spending, Oct. est. 0.0% (prior 0.8%)
  • 8:30: PCE Deflator M/m, Oct. est. 0.1% (prior 0.4%)
  • 9am: NAPM-Milwaukee, Nov. est. 47.0 (prior 43.3)
  • 9:45am: Chicago Purchasing Mgr, Nov. est. 50.5 (prior 49.9)
  • 11am: Fed to buy $1.75b-$2.25b notes due 2/15/36-11/15/42
  • 1pm: Baker Hughes rig count
  • 5pm: Fed’s Stein, Kocherlakota at panel discussion about evaluating large-scale asset purchases at Boston Fed

GOVERNMENT:

    • House may vote on overhaul of U.S. work visa system, establish new kind of green card for foreign students who graduate in U.S. with advanced degrees in sci/tech
    • Deadline for Barclays to respond to FERC proposal for $470m in penalties for alleged market manipulation
    • American Gas Association holds a news conference to outline vision for natural gas in 2013, 9am
    • CFTC Chairman Gary Gensler speaks at agency’s 2012 Research Conference on key issues in derivatives markets
    • American Trucking Associations hosts final day of conference on expanding use of natural gas as a trucking fuel, with executives from UPS, Navistar, Swift

WHAT TO WATCH

  • Supervalu says in active sale talks; Cerberus talks said to stall
  • TNT, UPS propose steps to satisfy EU competition requirements
  • Zynga loosens ties with Facebook in order to seek growth
  • MSCI index changes effective as of mkt close today
  • VeriSign to discuss .com registry agreement
  • Health Management to hold call on allegations on “60 Minutes”
  • ITC Judge Pender may release finding in HTC vs Apple case
  • U.S. regulators not granted access JPMorgan emails to investigate potential energy-market manipulation, judge rules
  • Steven Cohen testified to SEC on share sales, FT says
  • Univerity of Michigan professor linked to SAC Capital trades resigns
  • Hostess wins final bankruptcy court approval to shut down, unwind assets
  • Microsoft said to plan next Xbox console for 2013 holiday season

EARNINGS:

    • United Natural Foods (UNFI), 7:30am, $0.46
    • Genesco (GCO) 7:31am, $1.33
    • WhiteWave Foods (WWAV) Pre-Mkt, $0.17
    • Exco Technologies (XTC CN) 4:30pm, C$0.14

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Oil Heads for First Monthly Gain Since August on Economic Growth
  • Sugar Traders Most Bearish in Two Months on Brazil: Commodities
  • Gas Pricing in U.K. Is No Libor as Probe Begins: Energy Markets
  • Codelco Seeing Solid Interest From China for Copper Contracts
  • Copper Advances to Five-Week High on China Growth Optimism
  • Shanghai Copper Stockpiles Drop to One-Month Low, Lead Increases
  • Gold Extends Monthly Gain in London as Physical Demand Improves
  • Felda Global Profit Slumps 40% on Lower Palm Prices, Production
  • Rebar Rises First Day in Five as Discount to Spot Spurs Buying
  • Aluminum Demand Growth in China Seen Least in More Than 10 Years
  • Hong Kong Bourse in $1 Billion Placement for LME Purchase
  • Asia to Boost West African Crude Imports to Most in Six Months
  • Mistry Predicts Palm Oil Bear Market in 2013 on Supply, Reserves
  • Fonterra Fund Surges Above Offer Price on Yield, Asia Links

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

CURRENCIES


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

EUROPEAN MARKETS


GREEECE – remember where the bulls were at the beginning of the wk? Greece was the catalyst, then it failed – Athex going out on the lows for the wk, down -9% from the OCT lower-highs; European economic data this morning is just plain bad (Italy unemployment 11.1% = 13yr high; German and French Consumer Spending down y/y).

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

ASIAN MARKETS


JAPAN – one way to fool some of the people that the economy is good is to devalue your currency; Japan gets that – Yen testing 7mth lows again this morning at $82.62 vs USD and that’s good for a +10% squeeze in the Nikkei off the OCT lows – all the while, life in Japan gets worse (Exports at 3yr lows, despite the debauchery).

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MIDDLE EAST


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The Hedgeye Macro Team