THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – November 29, 2012


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 13 points or 0.28% downside to 1406 and 0.64% upside to 1419.

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

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EQUITY SENTIMENT:


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CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 1.38 from 1.37

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):


  • 5:30am: Bank of England’s King issues report on financial stability of Britain’s banking system
  • 6am: Fed’s Fisher speaks in Frankfurt
  • 8:30am: GDP Q/q, 3Q est. 2.8% (prior 2.0%)
  • 8:30am: Personal Consumption, 3Q est. 1.9% (prior 2.0%)
  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, Nov. 24 est. 390k (prior 410k)
  • 9am: Fed’s Dudley speaks at Pace University in New York
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, Nov. 25 (prior -33.9)
  • 10am: Pending Home Sales M/m, Oct. est. 1% (prior 0.3%)
  • 10am: Fed’s Gibson testifies on Basel III in Washington
  • 10am: Freddie Mac mortgage rates
  • 10:30am: EIA natural-gas storage change
  • 11am: New York Fed holds economic briefing
  • 11am: Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity, Nov. est. -1 (prior -4)
  • 11am: Fed to buy $4.25b-$5.25b notes due 2/15/21-11/15/22
  • 1pm: U.S. to sell $29b 7Y notes

GOVERNMENT:

    • House, Senate in session
    • Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner meets w/House Speaker John Boehner, House Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell as President Barack Obama presses for deal to avert fiscal cliff
    • House Financial Services holds hearing on capital rules proposed by Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, 10am
    • Commodity Futures Trading Commission meets to consider clearing requirements under the Commodity Exchange Act, 11am
    • Billionaire investor T. Boone Pickens promotes government polices to support natural-gas fueled trucks, at American Trucking Association meeting, 9:30am
    • Obama has lunch with Mitt Romney at White House
    • Federal Housing Finance Agency will announce new loan limits for coming year for Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac
    • House Transportation panel holds hearing on airport passenger security screening, 10am
    • Democrats choose leadership for 113th Congress beginning in January. Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi of California, Minority Whip Steny Hoyer of Maryland, Assistant Leader James Clyburn of South Carolina are running unopposed. House Republicans, both parties in Senate already have chosen their leaders
    • Senate Environment holds hearing on impact of Hurricane Sandy, 9:30am

WHAT TO WATCH

  • Nov. retail sales may gain 2.5% on Black Friday demand
  • World economy in best shape since ’11 as investors see rebound
  • Con Edison expects to receive subpoena from Moreland Commission on utilities’ responses to Hurricane Sandy
  • Citigroup chair Michael O’Neill bought $1m worth of co.’s shares after exit of former CEO Vikram Pandit
  • NetJets’s new aircraft orders will avoid another aircraft glut
  • LivingSocial said to cut 400 staff positions
  • SAC Capital head trader named in Martoma case said to be Phillipp Villhauer
  • Danfoss bids $49/share for stake in Sauer-Danfoss it doesn’t already own
  • Shuster doesn’t rule out raising U.S. gasoline tax for roads
  • Italy borrowing costs fall at 5.5% 2022 bond auction

EARNINGS:

    • Royal Bank of Canada (RY CN) 6am, C$1.26
    • Descartes (DSG CN) 6am, $0.15
    • Gildan Activewear (GIL CN) 6:33am, $0.80
    • Liquidity Services (LQDT) 6:55am, $0.37
    • New Jersey Resources (NJR) 7am, $(0.26)
    • Tiffany & Co (TIF) 7am, $0.63
    • Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL) 7am, $1.06
    • Beacon Roofing Supply (BECN) 7:45am, $0.60
    • Kroger (KR) 8:15am, $0.43
    • Barnes & Noble (BKS) 8:30am, ($0.04)
    • Ship Finance (SFL) 8:45am, $0.32
    • Zumiez (ZUMZ) 4pm, $0.48
    • CNInsure (CISG) 4pm, NA
    • Ulta Salon Cosmetics (ULTA) 4:01pm, $0.56
    • Five Below (FIVE) 4:04pm, $0.01
    • Splunk (SPLK) 4:05pm, $(0.02)
    • Mentor Graphics (MENT) 4:15pm, $0.28
    • Omnivision (OVTI) 4:18pm, $0.31

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Gold Rebounds on U.S. Budget Optimism, Record Investor Holdings
  • Copper Shortage Seen Extending as China Accelerates: Commodities
  • Oil Rises First Time in Four Days on Inventories, U.S. Budget
  • Hong Kong Exchanges Wins Approval for $2.2 Billion LME Takeover
  • Copper Climbs on China Demand Optimism, U.S. Budget Expectations
  • Olam Says Studying All Legal Options as Temasek Keeps Stake
  • Soybeans Rise as South America Planting Delays May Drain Stocks
  • Rubber Recovers From One-Week Low as Fiscal Cliff Concerns Ease
  • Shuster Doesn’t Rule Out Raising U.S. Gasoline Tax for Roads
  • Chinese Rubber Imports Surge 16% to 3 Mln Tons in 11 Months
  • BP’s U.S. Contract Suspension Seen as ’Black Mark’ Aiding Rivals
  • China, EU Comments Suggest Reduced Scope for UN Climate Meeting
  • Palladium Seen at $700 After Fibonacci Level: Technical Analysis
  • Indonesia Set to Top India as World’s Largest Palm Oil Consumer

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CURRENCIES


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EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

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ASIAN MARKETS


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MIDDLE EAST


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The Hedgeye Macro Team