“The truth I tell you! The sea is Sophia. Wisdom.”



It’s all about Greece this morning. Sort of. That’s a quote from “the first man of Greece”, Pythagoras. He was also the first man “to use the term Philo-Sophia, which means philosopher, the lover of wisdom.” (Pythagoras The Mathemagician, pg 217)


Wikipedia calls philosophy “the study of general and fundamental problems, such as those connected with reality, existence, knowledge, values, reason, mind, and language.”  


That’s a lot. My philosophy this morning is this: let the market’s infinite wisdom tell me what to do next.


Back to the Global Macro Grind


There was no volume last week, but prices ripped. With the US Dollar down for the 1st week in the last 5, US stocks had their 1st up week in 5. Commodities, Junk Bonds, and even Japanese stocks (Nikkei +3.8%) were up big too.


Get the Dollar right, and you get a lot of things Big Beta right. With the 90-day inverse correlation between the USD and the SP500 clocking a -0.90 this morning, there’s plenty rear-view mirror Philo-Sophia in that.


But what would get people to sell bonds and buy stocks (on real-volume)? My philosophy is no different than Reagan or Clinton’s was – sustainable economic growth (not Greek bailout headlines and US Dollar Debauchery).


As a reminder, the US Dollar Index was 15-30% higher during both the Reagan and Clinton bull markets:

  1. Reagan (1) – US GDP Growth averaged 4.31% (Oil averaged $22.16/barrel)
  2. Clinton (1) – US GDP Growth averaged 3.84%% (Oil averaged $18.63/barrel)

Philo-Sophia: Strong Dollar = Strong America.


So, don’t expect last week’s -1.3% correction in the US Dollar to get me excited about sustainable US economic growth. The bond market isn’t excited about that this morning either.


Last week’s selloff in US Treasuries (UST 10yr yield rose from 1.58% to 1.69% wk-over-wk) didn’t break any lines that matter in my multi-duration model. For the 10yr yield, those lines are as follows:

  1. Immediate-term TRADE resistance = 1.69%
  2. Intermediate-term TREND resistance = 1.73%
  3. Long-term TAIL resistance = 1.91%

In other words, close but no cigar! This morning, the 10yr yield dropped right back to 1.66% and (after failing at 1.73% resistance) remains in what we call a Bearish Formation (bearish on all 3 of our core risk management durations: TRADE, TREND, and TAIL).


That puts Treasury Bonds in a Bullish Formation – and that’s why I took the Hedgeye Asset Allocation to Fixed Income up to 27% (versus 18% at the start of last week) on Friday’s stock market hope.


Hope is not a risk management process.


Neither is devaluing your currency in hopes that you get what this economy really needs (growth). Ask the Japanese about that – their currency has been hammered (down -5.2% in the last 2 months), but exports just hit a 3yr low (down -6.5% y/y in OCT).


Philo-Sophia: Keynesians, eat cake.


In other globally interconnected stock market signaling news:

  1. SP500 is back to bullish TRADE (1378 support), but remains bearish TREND (1419 resistance)
  2. Russell2000 remains bearish TRADE (812) and TREND (846)
  3. US Equity Volatility (VIX) held our long-term TAIL line of 14.31 support (bearish TRADE = 16.65)
  4. Chinese Stocks (Shanghai Composite) remain in a Bearish Formation (-0.5% overnight, testing YTD lows)
  5. Hang Seng holds its bullish TRADE (21,496) and TREND (20,965) support
  6. South Korea’s KOSPI remains bearish TRADE (1919 resistance) and TREND (1991 resistance)
  7. Germany’s DAX is holding intermediate-term TREND support of 7144
  8.  Italy’s MIB Index leads decliners this morning after failing at 15,733 TREND resistance

Fully loaded with Italians reporting their lowest level of Consumer Confidence report ever (84.8 NOV vs 86.2 OCT), we are still certain that A) ever is a long time and B) doing more of what isn’t working won’t work.


Since 2 of the top 3 Most Read articles on Bloomberg this morning have to do with where I started (Greece), I digress. “The truth I tell you!” is to stay true to the best process we know, until we have to learn from those mistakes and evolve again.


Our immediate-term Risk Ranges (support and resistance) for Gold, Oil (Brent), US Dollar, EUR/USD, UST 10yr Yield, and the SP500 are now $1, $109.83-111.48, $80.03-80.62, $1.28-1.30, 1.62-1.69%, and 1, respectively.


Best of luck out there this week,



Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer


Philo-Sophia - aa.chartofday


Philo-Sophia - aa. portfolio

Finish Strong

This note was originally published at 8am on November 12, 2012 for Hedgeye subscribers.

“It wasn’t where he started, but where he’d finished, that mattered.”

-Arthur Herman, Freedom’s Forge


To be clear, in building the vision for My Business, I’m not finished – I’m just getting started. No matter what your political and/or economic view this morning, trust in yourself, family, and firm is what is going to help you build something that lasts.


Especially in this profession, where many are hyper-focused on what they get paid today, we can all learn a lot from the aforementioned quote in Freedom’s Forge about Bill Knudsen. That’s how he thought about the opportunity to compete with Ford. That’s how I think about competing with the Old Wall.


“What were you getting paid at Ford?” “Fifty thousand dollars a year,” came the answer. So Sloan started him on February 23, 1922 at six thousand dollars a year. Knudsen didn’t care.” (page 28) In 1922, Bill Knudsen took over “GM’s lowest-priced, but also least profitable, division.” It was called Chevrolet.


Back to the Global Macro Grind


With Global Equity markets down hard last week (USA -2.5%, China -2.3%, Europe -1.7%), all of a sudden November of 2007 doesn’t seem so far away. Remember, that’s when the global corporate revenue and #EarningsSlowing cycle started last time. In November of 2007, the SP500 was down -4.4%. It wasn’t all about “the cliff” then – it isn’t now, either.


I’m not suggesting the Fiscal Cliff doesn’t matter this time – I’m simply reminding you that:


A)     It’s not new and should have been proactively prepared for (it wasn’t)  

B)      It’s the outcome of a much larger causal factor that the country is begging for more of (Keynesian Policy)

C)      It’s not happening in a vacuum; both Japan and Europe are going off #KeynesianCliffs of their own


This is why we warned our clients of the #KeynesianCliff (Hedgeye Macro Theme #3) before it became the perma-bull marketers latest crutch. This is also why we’ll remind you that Japan reporting a -3.5% QoQ SAAR GDP for Q3 of 2012 (Nikkei down -15.4% since #GrowthSlowing started, globally, in March) is how it ends. Japanese stocks have been making lower-highs for 20 years.


Deficit spending and money printing has a very causal relationship with long-term #GrowthSlowing. Kicking this can down the road for the sake of a “market pop” is the dumbest thing Americans can hope for right now. We need to start anew by taking the pain, so that we our kids and theirs can finish strong. That’s what matters.


What doesn’t matter to the 97% of people who don’t get paid by them is creating asset bubbles that inflate, then pop. To review, there have been 3 Major Policy Bubbles perpetuated by Greenspan/Bernanke in the last 15 years:

  1. Tech
  2. Housing
  3. Commodities

Bubble#3 (our 2nd Hedgeye Macro Theme for Q412) remains Commodities. Looking at last week’s CFTC (Commodities and Futures Exchange) data, here’s what that looks like in real-time:

  1. CFTC net long contracts down -11% wk-over-wk (biggest weekly drop since June) to 931,048 futures/options contracts
  2. CFTC net long contracts down -31% from The Bernanke Top we’ve been focused since mid-September 2012
  3. Copper contracts down -70% last week to 2,077!

Now the Doctor (Copper) has been signaling #GrowthSlowing in our multi-factor, multi-duration, risk management model since February of 2012 (see Chart of The Day). Seeing copper implode since then is not new – but it doesn’t mean it has stopped.


On that score, last week’s commodity price moves highlight what I think summarizes the overall Q412 beta environment for stocks and commodities in particular:

  1. Copper = down another -1.1% wk-over-wk to $3.44/lb (bearish on all 3 of our core durations: TRADE/TREND/TAIL)
  2. Gold = up +3.4% wk-over-wk to $1730/oz (recapturing intermediate-term TREND support of $1702/oz)

To me, that’s demand slowing (Copper falling) versus long-term growth fear (Gold rising). Don’t forget that people choosing to invest in Gold are explicitly making a decision to invest in a relatively unproductive asset instead of high-growth companies like Hedgeye.


These people who are running around like chickens with their heads cut off saying the stock market falling is all about “the cliff” should also be reminded that Gold was down for 4 consecutive weeks into the US Election.  


Is Obama’s win bullish for Gold? Is it bearish for growth? Ask the bond market. If there’s so much “credit risk” now associated with “the cliff”, why are US Treasury Yields falling (and not rising like they did in Europe)?


If you know the answers to all these questions, good – because I don’t. All I know is that after blaming Bush for where he started, President Obama has a wide open opportunity to change growth expectations in this country. Where he finishes matters too.


My immediate-term risk ranges for Gold, Brent (Oil), US Dollar, EUR/USD, UST 10yr Yield, Copper, and the SP500 are now $1712-1745, $105.22-109.72, $80.39-81.28, $1.26-1.28, 1.60-1.71%, $3.41-3.50, and 1364-1406, respectively.


Best of luck out there today,



Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer


Finish Strong - Chart of the Day


Finish Strong - Virtual Portfolio


TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – November 26, 2012


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 41 points or 2.21% downside to 1378 and 0.70% upside to 1419.                                                                                                                                                                               















  • YIELD CURVE: 1.40 from 1.42

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 8:30am: Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, Oct. (prior 0)
  • 10:30am: Dallas Fed Manf. Activity, Nov. (est. 2.0, prior 1.8)
  • 11am: Fed to purchase $1.75b-$2.25b notes due 2/15/36-11/15/42
  • 11:30am: U.S. Treasury to sell $32b 3-mo., $28b 6-mo. bills
  • 4pm: USDA crop reports


    • Senate in session, House not in session


  • Shoppers lift Thanksgiving wknd spending 13% to $59.1b
  • ‘Black Friday’ online retail sales rise 26% to $1b
  • PNC’s Twelve Days of Christmas Price Index for 2012
  • ‘Twilight,’ ‘Skyfall’ help push holiday box office to record
  • Knight seen getting buyout offers this wk from Getco, Virtu
  • Baxter said to near deal to buy Sweden’s Gambro for $4b
  • UBS fined $47.6m, faces higher capital level over Adoboli
  • UBS leads Wall Street bid to halt FHFA mortgage-bond suit
  • Cohen’s SAC faces client questions as U.S. investigators circle
  • Euro finance chiefs try again to approve Greek payment
  • China wage gains trimmed by weaker corporate profits


    • Hillenbrand (HI) 4:20pm, $0.44
    • Berry Plastics (BERY), Post-Mkt, $0.28


  • Nickel Glut Recedes as Biggest Metals Loser Rallies: Commodities
  • China Traders to Boost Rubber Imports From Thailand on Price Gap
  • Crude Declines From Three-Day High as European Ministers Meet
  • Copper Falls as Spain May Delay Seeking Bailout From Debt Crisis
  • Gold Retreats From Six-Week High as Steady Dollar Cuts Demand
  • Soybeans Extend Best Week in Three Months on South American Crop
  • Coffee Falls to Nine-Month Low on Vietnam Exports; Cocoa Drops
  • Palm Oil Futures Gain as Four-Day Losing Streak Attracts Buyers
  • Glencore, Vedanta Face Up to 50% Pay-Raise Demand in Zambia
  • Muddy Olam Call Spurred by Rule Accountants Call Ambiguous
  • Pemex Discovers Oil in Region That Could Hold 1 Billion Barrels
  • Japan Aluminum Buyers Said to Get Proposal for 5.5% Fee Cut
  • Europe’s Shale Boom Lies in Sahara as Algeria Woos Exxon: Energy
  • Brent Poised to Oust WTI as Most-Traded Oil




EURO – we shorted the EUR/USD on Friday as intermediate-term TREND resistance of $1.31 remains overhead; immediate-term TRADE resistance was $1.28 (now support), so now we have plenty of duration mismatch in consensus positioning to risk manage a multi-duration range around.





ITALY – reports an all-time low in consumer confidence of 84.8 NOV (vs 86.2 in OCT) – all-time (data set only goes back to 1996) is a long-time as we head into Christmas selling season for Europe; European stocks we’re up huge (on no volume) last wk (+4.0% on the EuroStoxx600, which just made another lower-highs vs SEP).




CHINA – the “China has bottomed” crowd is still looking for that bottom as the Shanghai Comp re-tested her YTD lows last night, closing -0.5% (down -18.1% since the #GrowthSlowing top in March); we need to see consumption taxes (food and energy prices) continue to deflate before we buy anything China/EastAsia.








The Hedgeye Macro Team




real-time alerts

real edge in real-time

This indispensable trading tool is based on a risk management signaling process Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough developed during his years as a hedge fund manager and continues to refine. Nearly every trading day, you’ll receive Keith’s latest signals - buy, sell, short or cover.


The Economic Data calendar for the week of the 26th of November through the 30th is full of critical releases and events. Attached below is a snapshot of some (though far from all) of the headline numbers that we will be focused on.



Weekly European Monitor: Groundhog Day

Takeaway: The loop of Eurocrat indecision, again. Greece will get its handouts as officials prize maintaining the Union’s status quo.

-- For specific questions on anything Europe, please contact me at to set up a call.


Positions in Europe: Short EUR/USD (FXE)


Asset Class Performance:

  • Equities:  The STOXX Europe 600 closed up +4.0% week-over-week vs -2.7% last week. Top performers:  Cyprus +13.9%; Greece +6.9%; Finland +6.2%; France +5.4%; Italy +5.3%; Germany +5.1%; Belgium +4.6%; Sweden +4.4%; Spain +4.0%.  Bottom performers:  Hungary -3.0%; Slovakia -0.9%; Romania +0.4%; Czech Republic +0.7%. [Other: UK +3.8%].
  • FX:  The EUR/USD is up +1.84% week-over-week vs +0.17% last week.  W/W Divergences:  PLN/EUR +1.15%; HUF/EUR +0.89%; CZK/EUR +0.83%; SEK/EUR +0.64%; NOK/EUR +0.40%; RUB/EUR +0.33%; CHF/EUR +0.07%; DKK/EUR +0.01%; RON/EUR -0.07%; ISK/EUR -0.43%; GBP/EUR -0.84%; TRY/EUR -1.48%.
  • Fixed Income:  The 10YR yield for sovereigns across the periphery were down week-on-week. Greece declined the most at -94bps to 16.44%, followed by Portugal -87bps to 7.91%, Spain -21bps to 5.68%, and Italy -10bps to 4.78%. France saw the largest gain at +9bps to 2.16% and Germany gained +7bps to 1.42%. 

Weekly European Monitor: Groundhog Day - 33. yields


EUR/USD: Today Keith added FXE short for a second time to our Real-Time Positions at $128.97. Our EUR/USD TRADE range is $1.26 – 1.28 with a TREND resistance of $1.31.


  • Our call - the EUR/USD will trade within our quantitative levels and reflect much of the daily headline risk (from Spain, Greece, and Italy in particular), however ECB President Mario Draghi’s September announcement that “the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro” and the resolve of Eurocrats to maintain the Union will prevent levels falling anywhere near parity.
  • We believe there is a high likelihood that no significant policy action comes in the remaining weeks of 2012, which could support the band the cross has been trading in over the last weeks.

Weekly European Monitor: Groundhog Day - 33. EURUSD


Weekly European Monitor: Groundhog Day - 33. cftc



Groundhog Day:


“You want a prediction about the weather? You’re asking the wrong Phil. I’ll give you a winter prediction: It’s gonna be cold, it’s gonna be grey, and it’s gonna last you for the rest of your life.”

-From the film Groundhog Day


No agreement was reached from Tuesday’s Eurogroup and IMF on a debt reduction package for Greece. The impasse signals to us a couple of things:

  1. Eurocrats will continue to react to crises by calling meetings and summits, however the “announced solutions” will continue to have little to no substance or won’t work, which will set into motion a repeat “crisis” further down the road, hence the reference to the film Groundhog Day. In particular, we think the inability of member countries to give up their fiscal sovereignty in order to create a Fiscal Union will be a significant stumbling block.
  2. Eurocrats are squarely on board to save in the first order their own jobs and in the second order the idea of a Union of uneven states; therefore we expect them to do all that’s necessary to keep up the Union’s status quo. In short, this means Greece will get its bills paid and you can bet that some form of restructuring of its sovereign debt is inevitable. While the market may cheer this on, suspending reality in Greece will only further divide the Union and perpetuate the uneven footing the states are bound on.

The rumor is now that a resolution on Greece’s debt, which will put the payment of its next bailout tranche ($31.5B) in motion, could come as soon as this Monday, 11/26. But don’t hold your breath! Here’s a quick update on the Greek developments:

  • Sticking Points = the IMF wants Greece's debt burden to fall to 120% of GDP by 2020, while the Eurogroup believes that 2022 is a more realistic date for that debt target. The fund has also pushed for an official sector restructuring to improve Greece's debt sustainability. However, there is no consensus in the Eurogroup for a haircut, which Germany has said is illegal.
  • Remedy Options Under Consideration = one measure revolved around a 10-year suspension of interest payments on loans to Greece from the EFSF. It said that this would result in €44B of savings. It added that there is also a possibility that the interest rate on loans to Greece from Eurozone countries could be reduced to 0.25% from 1.5%, though it added that Germany was opposed to such a step.


Another signal this week that it’s Groundhog Day, Moody’s downgraded France's government bond rating by one notch to Aa1 from Aaa citing an uncertain fiscal outlook, deteriorating economy in the short-term, and longer-term structural rigidities. This came as no great surprise and was a repeat of S&P’s decision to downgraded France back in January.


The move by two leading credit ratings agencies however begs the questions, should the ESM and EFSF facilities also be downgraded, with the second largest backer to Germany losing its AAA status. We think the answer is yes but would further suggest that given the level of central bank intervention in markets, AA is new AAA.


Finally, gear up for a Spanish regional election in Catalonia on Sunday, a region with a long history of succession desires given its bend towards cultural and economic independence (more below under “Call Outs”).



The European Week Ahead:

Sunday: Regional Election in Spain’s Catalonia


Monday: Eurozone Finance Ministers may sign off on Greece’s next bailout tranche (31.5B EU); ECB's Constancio Speaks in Berlin; Dec. Germany GfK Consumer Confidence Survey; Oct. Germany Import Price Index; Nov. UK Nationwide House Prices (Nov. 26-29); Sep. Spain Mortgages-capital loaned, Mortgages on Houses; Nov. Italy Consumer Confidence


Tuesday: Nov. Eurozone OECD Economic Outlook; Sep. UK Index of Services; 3Q UK GDP, Private Consumption, Government Spending, Gross Fixed Capital Formation, Exports, Imports and Total Business Investment – Preliminary; Oct. France Jobseekers; Oct. Italy Hourly Wages; Spain AFME 4th Annual Spanish Funding Conference in Madrid; Oct. Spain Budget Balance


Wednesday: Oct. Eurozone M3; Nov. Germany CPI – Preliminary; Oct. Spain Retail Sales


Thursday: Nov. Eurozone Consumer Confidence – Final, Services Confidence, Business Climate Indicator, Industrial Confidence; Nov. Germany Unemployment Change, Unemployment Rate; Nov. UK CBI Reported Sales, GfK Consumer Confidence Survey, Oct. UK Net Consumer Credit, Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings, Mortgage Approvals, M4 Money Supply; Sep. Spain Total Housing Permits; Nov. Italy Business Confidence; Economic Sentiment


Friday: Nov. Eurozone CPI Estimate; Oct. Eurozone Unemployment Rate; Oct. Germany Retail Sales; Oct. France Producer Prices, Consumer Spending; Nov. Spain CPI - Preliminary; Sep. Spain Current Account; Nov. Italy CPI - Preliminary; Oct. Italy Unemployment Rate – Preliminary, PPI, 3Q Italy Unemployment Rate; Sep. Greece Retail Sales



Extended Calendar:

DEC 1 –                 Beginning of the Russian Presidency of G20

DEC 3 –                 Eurogroup Meeting in Brussels

DEC 6 –                 ECB Governing Council Meeting

DEC 12-13 –        First public consultation between the Russian government, B20 Coalition and international civil society representatives on G20 agenda for 2013 (in Moscow)

DEC 20 –               ECB Governing and General Council Meeting

APR 2013 –          Parliamentary elections in Italy

MAY 2013 –        Presidential elections in Italy



Call Outs:


UK - BOE Minutes: voted 9-0 to keep interest rates on hold, 8-1 to maintain current asset purchases target.


Spain - Newspaper polls last Sunday showed that CiU, the Catalan nationalist party, will win the closely watched regional parliamentary elections this Sunday (25-Nov), but will not gain an absolute majority. It added that the pro-independence party of President Artur Mas is expected to win 60-64 seats in the Catalan parliament, little changed from the 62 seats it currently holds, but short of the 68 seats needed for an absolute majority. According to the article, an absolute majority would give the government more legitimacy in its ongoing battle with Madrid for independence.


Spain - Spanish Prime Minister Rajoy warned that a vote for Catalan independence risked excluding the region from the EU (recall that the Rajoy administration has repeatedly argued that a Catalan referendum on independence is illegal). However, the article noted that Catalan President Artur Mas would consider pursuing a separation from Spain even if an independent Catalan state were denied EU membership. His chief of staff, Joan Vidal de Ciurana, told Bloomberg that Catalonia would not need Spain's Treasury for funding if it had the possibility to become a state and negotiate directly with the markets.


Germany - Bloomberg noted that Europolis, a German citizen group, filed a lawsuit over the ECB's new intervention program at the EU General Court. The article said that the plaintiffs have asked the court to declare the OMT to be incompatible with EU law. It added the case is the sixth challenging the ECB to reach the EU's two top courts.



Data Dump:


Eurozone PMI Manufacturing 46.2 NOV Prelim (exp. 45.6) vs 45.4 OCT

Eurozone PMI Services 45.7 NOV Prelim (exp. 46) vs 46 OCT

Eurozone PMI Composite 45.8 NOV Prelim (exp. 45.7) vs 45.7 OCT


Eurozone Construction Output -2.6% SEPT Y/Y vs -1.4% AUG

Eurozone Consumer Confidence -26.9 NOV (exp. -25.9) vs -25.7 OCT


Germany Q3 GDP Final UNCH vs Previous 0.2% Q/Q and 0.9% Y/Y

Germany Domestic Demand 0.0% in Q3 (inline) vs -0.4% in Q2

Germany Exports 1.4% in Q3 (exp. 1.0%) vs 3.3% in Q2

Germany Imports 1.0% in Q3 (exp. 0.5%) vs 2.2% in Q2

Germany Capital Investment 0.2% in Q3 (exp. -0.1%) vs -2.1% in Q2

Germany Govt Spending 0.4% in Q3 (exp. 0.2%) vs -0.2% in Q2

Germany Construction Investment 1.5% in Q3 (exp. 0.8%) vs -1.1% in Q2

Germany Private Consumption 0.3% in Q3 (vs 0.2%) vs 0.1% in Q2


Germany IFO Business Climate 101.4 NOV (exp. 99.5) vs 100 OCT

Germany IFO Current Assessment 108.1 NOV (exp. 106.3) vs 107.2 OCT

Germany IFO Expectations 95.2 NOV (exp. 93) vs 93.2 OCT


Weekly European Monitor: Groundhog Day - 33. IFO


Germany PMI Manufacturing 46.8 NOV Prelim (exp. 46) vs 46 OCT

Germany PMI Services 48 NOV Prelim (exp. 48.3) vs 48.4 OCT

Germany Producer Prices 1.5% OCT Y/Y vs 1.7% SEPT


France PMI Manufacturing 44.7 NOV Prelim (exp. 44) vs 43.7 OCT

France PMI Services 46.1 NOV Prelim (exp. 45) vs 44.6 OCT


France Own-Company Production Outlook -7 NOV vs -9 SEPT

France Production Outlook -40 NOV vs -55 SEPT

France Business Confidence 88 NOV vs 85 September


UK BBA Loans for House Purchase 33,039 OCT vs 31,544 September


Italy Retail Sales -1.7% SEPT Y/Y (exp. -1.1%) vs -1.1% AUG

Italy Industrial Orders NSA -12.8% SEPT Y/Y vs -9.0% AUG


Spain Producer Prices 3.5% OCT Y/Y vs 3.8% SEPT

Portugal Producer Prices 4.6% OCT Y/Y vs 4.5% SEPT

Austria Industrial Production 2.3% SEPT Y/Y vs 3.8% AUG


Switzerland Exports -16.5% OCT M/M vs 2.9% SEPT [Watch exports +9.3% Y/Y in real terms; +13.2% Y/Y in nominal terms]

Switzerland Imports -8.2% OCT M/M vs 4.6% September

Switzerland M3 Money Supply 8.6% OCT Y/Y vs 8.8% SEPT


Denmark Retail Sales -1.4% OCT Y/Y vs -2.8% SEPT

Denmark Consumer Confidence Indicator -1.3% NOV vs -5.5% OCT

Netherlands Consumer Spending 0.0% SEPT vs -1.8% AUG

Netherlands House Price Index -7.8% OCT Y/Y vs -7.9% SEPT


Norway Q3 GDP 0.7% Q/Q vs 0.8% in Q2

Finland Unemployment Rate 6.9% OCT vs 7.1% September


Poland Core CPI 1.9% OCT Y/Y vs 1.9% SEPT

Slovenia PPI 0.8% OCT Y/Y vs 0.7% September

Hungary Avg Gross Wages 3.7% SEPT Y/Y vs 3.8% AUG

Bulgaria Unemployment Rate 11% OCT vs 10.6% SEPT


Russia Foreign Direct Investment 4.6% in Q3 vs 8.0% in Q2

Russia Unemployment Rate 5.3% OCT vs 5.2% September

Russia Disposable Income 2.4% OCT Y/Y vs 3.8% September

Russia Real Wages 5.2% OCT Y/Y vs 4.7% September

Russia Retail Sales 3.8% OCT Y/Y vs 4.4% SEPT
Russia Investment in Production Capacity 4.9% OCT Y/Y vs -1.3% September


Turkey Foreign Tourist Arrivals 0.4% OCT Y/Y vs 1.7% SEPT



Interest Rate Decisions:


(11/20) Turkey Benchmark Rep Rate UNCH at 5.75%

(11/20) Turkey Overnight Lending Rate CUT 50bps to 9.00%



Matthew Hedrick

Senior Analyst

UNH: Get Shorty


We present to you the final installment of our videos from last week’s Best Ideas call that Hedgeye held for its institutional subscribers. Healthcare Sector Head Tom Tobin is looking to short UnitedHealth Group (UNH) for multiple reasons that include: 


-Utilization has been negative: cost trend has been negative for the last 3 years. While some medical spending is discretionary, underlying demand is unlikely to remain negative for long.


-Costs are likely to accelerate: Our forecast of physician office visits and maternity suggest a recovery is ongoing.


-Affordable Care Act creates problems: The Affordable Care Act creates a host of market uncertanties and has a high probability of being disruptive to the health insurance market.


Watch the video we’ve posted for Tobin’s full rundown on UNH.


Early Look

daily macro intelligence

Relied upon by big institutional and individual investors across the world, this granular morning newsletter distills the latest and most vital market developments and insures that you are always in the know.