TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – November 26, 2012
As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 41 points or 2.21% downside to 1378 and 0.70% upside to 1419.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- YIELD CURVE: 1.40 from 1.42
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):
- 8:30am: Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, Oct. (prior 0)
- 10:30am: Dallas Fed Manf. Activity, Nov. (est. 2.0, prior 1.8)
- 11am: Fed to purchase $1.75b-$2.25b notes due 2/15/36-11/15/42
- 11:30am: U.S. Treasury to sell $32b 3-mo., $28b 6-mo. bills
- 4pm: USDA crop reports
GOVERNMENT:
- Senate in session, House not in session
WHAT TO WATCH
- Shoppers lift Thanksgiving wknd spending 13% to $59.1b
- ‘Black Friday’ online retail sales rise 26% to $1b
- PNC’s Twelve Days of Christmas Price Index for 2012
- ‘Twilight,’ ‘Skyfall’ help push holiday box office to record
- Knight seen getting buyout offers this wk from Getco, Virtu
- Baxter said to near deal to buy Sweden’s Gambro for $4b
- UBS fined $47.6m, faces higher capital level over Adoboli
- UBS leads Wall Street bid to halt FHFA mortgage-bond suit
- Cohen’s SAC faces client questions as U.S. investigators circle
- Euro finance chiefs try again to approve Greek payment
- China wage gains trimmed by weaker corporate profits
EARNINGS:
- Hillenbrand (HI) 4:20pm, $0.44
- Berry Plastics (BERY), Post-Mkt, $0.28
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
- Nickel Glut Recedes as Biggest Metals Loser Rallies: Commodities
- China Traders to Boost Rubber Imports From Thailand on Price Gap
- Crude Declines From Three-Day High as European Ministers Meet
- Copper Falls as Spain May Delay Seeking Bailout From Debt Crisis
- Gold Retreats From Six-Week High as Steady Dollar Cuts Demand
- Soybeans Extend Best Week in Three Months on South American Crop
- Coffee Falls to Nine-Month Low on Vietnam Exports; Cocoa Drops
- Palm Oil Futures Gain as Four-Day Losing Streak Attracts Buyers
- Glencore, Vedanta Face Up to 50% Pay-Raise Demand in Zambia
- Muddy Olam Call Spurred by Rule Accountants Call Ambiguous
- Pemex Discovers Oil in Region That Could Hold 1 Billion Barrels
- Japan Aluminum Buyers Said to Get Proposal for 5.5% Fee Cut
- Europe’s Shale Boom Lies in Sahara as Algeria Woos Exxon: Energy
- Brent Poised to Oust WTI as Most-Traded Oil
CURRENCIES
EURO – we shorted the EUR/USD on Friday as intermediate-term TREND resistance of $1.31 remains overhead; immediate-term TRADE resistance was $1.28 (now support), so now we have plenty of duration mismatch in consensus positioning to risk manage a multi-duration range around.
EUROPEAN MARKETS
ITALY – reports an all-time low in consumer confidence of 84.8 NOV (vs 86.2 in OCT) – all-time (data set only goes back to 1996) is a long-time as we head into Christmas selling season for Europe; European stocks we’re up huge (on no volume) last wk (+4.0% on the EuroStoxx600, which just made another lower-highs vs SEP).
ASIAN MARKETS
CHINA – the “China has bottomed” crowd is still looking for that bottom as the Shanghai Comp re-tested her YTD lows last night, closing -0.5% (down -18.1% since the #GrowthSlowing top in March); we need to see consumption taxes (food and energy prices) continue to deflate before we buy anything China/EastAsia.
MIDDLE EAST
The Hedgeye Macro Team