TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – November 21, 2012
As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 33 points or 1.72% downside to 1364 and 0.66% upside to 1397.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- YIELD CURVE: 1.41 from 1.41
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):
- 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, Nov. 16 (prior 12.6%)
- 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, Nov. 17 est. 410k (prior 439k)
- 8:58am: Markit US PMI Preliminary, Nov., est. 51.0 (prior 51.3)
- 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, Nov. 18 (prior -33.1)
- 9:55am: U. of Michigan Confidence, Nov. final, est. 84.5 (prior 84.9)
- 10am: Leading Indicators, Oct. est. 0.1% (prior 0.6%)
- 10:30am: DOE inventories
- 11am: Fed to sell $7b-$8b notes due 11/30/15-1/31/16
- 11am: U.S. to announce plans to sell 2Y, 5Y, 7Y notes
- 11:30am: U.S. Treasury to sell $13b 10Y TIPS in reopening
- Noon: EIA natural gas storage change
- 3pm: Baker Hughes rig count
WHAT TO WATCH
- EU finance ministers fail on Greece debt-reduction package
- FBI said to be looking into HP’s claims over Autonomy accounting
- Martoma fund used dark pool to keep inside trade quiet, SEC says
- Hostess aims to shut down permanently after mediation fails
- Box office releases include “Life of Pi,” “Rise of Guardians”
- Deutsche Bank’s Jain sees “significant” bank consolidation
- BoE says unlikely it would cut bank rate in foreseeable future; voted 8-1 to halt bond purchases
- News Corp., CBS said in talks on Simon & Schuster, WSJ says
- Japan’s exports reach 3-yr low; Oct. exports down 6.5% Y/y
- Hillary Clinton seeks to salvage proposed cease-fire in Gaza
EARNINGS:
- Donaldson (DCI) 7am, $0.34
- Deere (DE) 7am, $1.88
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
COPPER – the Doctor remains ill; no new news, but important to contextualize within the perimeter of the storytelling that is “China has bottomed”; China stopped making new lows last night, but Copper leads metals lower again after failing at my TRADE line of $3.53/lb resistance.
- Crude Oil Rises on Gaza Conflict Amid Declining U.S. Stockpiles
- Drought No Obstacle to Record Income for U.S. Farms: Commodities
- Silver Trade Drops 30% on China Bourse as Industry Use Falls
- Rubber Imports by India Seen at Record as Demand Tops Production
- Copper Slides for a Second Day Amid Revived Debt-Crisis Concern
- Gold Swings Between Gains and Drops on Dollar, Physical Demand
- Soybeans Drop as Rains in Parts of Brazil Improve Crop Prospects
- Sugar Drops in London on Signs of Ample Supplies; Cocoa Declines
- Gas-Oil Price Link in Focus as Exporters Meet in Malabo
- Natural Gas in New York Falls From Highest in More Than a Year
- Palm Oil Drops as Falling Malaysian Exports Spur Demand Concern
- China Grabs Share in Latin America Wind With Cheap Loans: Energy
- Ivorian Cocoa Grinding Seen Costlier Than Europe’s on Tax Plan
- China’s Iran Crude Imports Rise to Highest Since Sanctions
CURRENCIES
EUROPEAN MARKETS
DAX – the good news is that the 2-day squeeze in European Equities recaptured the 7116 intermediate-term TREND line for the DAX; the bad news is that the DAX continues to make lower-highs and is broken on an immediate-term TRADE basis (7231 resistance); this is where being Duration Agnostic matters.
ASIAN MARKETS
JAPAN – island economy, hostage to high cost oil imports in local FX, smothered by Keynesian economic policy enters the death spiral of what didn’t work 15 yrs ago (Krugman: “Print Lots of Money”); OCT Exports -6.5% y/y is a train wreck (3yr lows) and the Yen hits a 7mth low; this remains the most un-talked about risk in Global Macro today.
MIDDLE EAST
The Hedgeye Macro Team