THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – November 21, 2012


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 33 points or 1.72% downside to 1364 and 0.66% upside to 1397.     

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1a

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - SP

 

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EQUITY SENTIMENT:


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - sentiment


CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 1.41 from 1.41

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, Nov. 16 (prior 12.6%)
  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, Nov. 17 est. 410k (prior 439k)
  • 8:58am: Markit US PMI Preliminary, Nov., est. 51.0 (prior 51.3)
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, Nov. 18 (prior -33.1)
  • 9:55am: U. of Michigan Confidence, Nov. final, est. 84.5 (prior 84.9)
  • 10am: Leading Indicators, Oct. est. 0.1% (prior 0.6%)
  • 10:30am: DOE inventories
  • 11am: Fed to sell $7b-$8b notes due 11/30/15-1/31/16
  • 11am: U.S. to announce plans to sell 2Y, 5Y, 7Y notes
  • 11:30am: U.S. Treasury to sell $13b 10Y TIPS in reopening
  • Noon: EIA natural gas storage change
  • 3pm: Baker Hughes rig count

WHAT TO WATCH

  • EU finance ministers fail on Greece debt-reduction package
  • FBI said to be looking into HP’s claims over Autonomy accounting
  • Martoma fund used dark pool to keep inside trade quiet, SEC says
  • Hostess aims to shut down permanently after mediation fails
  • Box office releases include “Life of Pi,” “Rise of Guardians”
  • Deutsche Bank’s Jain sees “significant” bank consolidation
  • BoE says unlikely it would cut bank rate in foreseeable future; voted 8-1 to halt bond purchases
  • News Corp., CBS said in talks on Simon & Schuster, WSJ says
  • Japan’s exports reach 3-yr low; Oct. exports down 6.5% Y/y
  • Hillary Clinton seeks to salvage proposed cease-fire in Gaza

 EARNINGS:

    • Donaldson (DCI) 7am, $0.34
    • Deere (DE) 7am, $1.88

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)


COPPER – the Doctor remains ill; no new news, but important to contextualize within the perimeter of the storytelling that is “China has bottomed”; China stopped making new lows last night, but Copper leads metals lower again after failing at my TRADE line of $3.53/lb resistance.

  • Crude Oil Rises on Gaza Conflict Amid Declining U.S. Stockpiles
  • Drought No Obstacle to Record Income for U.S. Farms: Commodities
  • Silver Trade Drops 30% on China Bourse as Industry Use Falls
  • Rubber Imports by India Seen at Record as Demand Tops Production
  • Copper Slides for a Second Day Amid Revived Debt-Crisis Concern
  • Gold Swings Between Gains and Drops on Dollar, Physical Demand
  • Soybeans Drop as Rains in Parts of Brazil Improve Crop Prospects
  • Sugar Drops in London on Signs of Ample Supplies; Cocoa Declines
  • Gas-Oil Price Link in Focus as Exporters Meet in Malabo
  • Natural Gas in New York Falls From Highest in More Than a Year
  • Palm Oil Drops as Falling Malaysian Exports Spur Demand Concern
  • China Grabs Share in Latin America Wind With Cheap Loans: Energy
  • Ivorian Cocoa Grinding Seen Costlier Than Europe’s on Tax Plan
  • China’s Iran Crude Imports Rise to Highest Since Sanctions

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5A

CURRENCIES


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EUROPEAN MARKETS


DAX – the good news is that the 2-day squeeze in European Equities recaptured the 7116 intermediate-term TREND line for the DAX; the bad news is that the DAX continues to make lower-highs and is broken on an immediate-term TRADE basis (7231 resistance); this is where being Duration Agnostic matters.


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7A

 

 

ASIAN MARKETS


JAPAN – island economy, hostage to high cost oil imports in local FX, smothered by Keynesian economic policy enters the death spiral of what didn’t work 15 yrs ago (Krugman: “Print Lots of Money”); OCT Exports -6.5% y/y is a train wreck (3yr lows) and the Yen hits a 7mth low; this remains the most un-talked about risk in Global Macro today.

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MIDDLE EAST


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The Hedgeye Macro Team