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THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – November 20, 2012


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 37 points or 1.65% downside to 1364 and 1.02% upside to 1401.

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1a

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2A

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3A

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4A

 

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 10A


CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 1.38 from 1.37
  • BONDS – neither US or German bonds seem to care about whatever yesterday was; closing > 1364 (TAIL support) matters for US stocks as much as closing below it would, but the 10yr dropping to 1.57% this morning (Yield Spread compresses to 133bps wide on 10s/2s) is bearish for the Financials (and growth); will be interesting to watch that Sector today.

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 7:45am/8:55am: ICSC/Redbook weekly retail sales
  • 8:30am: Housing Starts, Oct., est. 840k (prior  872k)
  • 8:30am: Building Permits, Oct., est. 864k (prior 894k, 890k)
  • 9am: Fed’s Lacker speaks in New York
  • 11:00am: Fed to purchase $1.75b-2.25b notes due 2/15/36-11/15/42
  • 11:30am: U.S. Treasury to sell $40b 4-wk bills, $20b cash management bills
  • 12:15pm: Fed’s Bernanke speaks in New York
  • 4:30pm: API inventories

     GOVERNMENT:

    • House, Senate not in session
    • Patent office Director David Kappos discusses tech innovation Center for American Progress. 10am.
    • FERC Chairman Jon Wellinghoff outlines energy market rules at Bloomberg Government breakfast. 10am
    • FCC Chair Julius Genachowski, IBM VP Daniel Prieto III speak at Council on Foreign Relations on intl telecom policy. 12:30pm
    • Defense Secretary Leon Panetta speaks at Center for a New American Security in Washington. 6:45pm

WHAT TO WATCH

  • France lost its top credit rating at Moody’s
  • Housing starts probably posted best 2 mos. since 2008
  • Best Buy founder Richard Schulze said to enlist 3 private-equity firms as he seeks to takeover chain
  • Fed’s Bernanke to speak at Economic Club of New York
  • Credit Suisse to reorganize its investment bank
  • Samsung able to renew patent claims against Apple
  • European finance ministers will try to plug a EU15b ($19b) hole in Greece’s finances, win over IMF
  • Xstrata holders seen backing bid as Glencore votes in favor
  • Spain sells EU4.94b bills vs maximum target EU4.5b
  • Hostess, bakers union urged to accept mediation of strike
  • Olam slumps after short-seller Muddy Waters’ Carson Block questions accounting methods
  • JPMorgan named Marianne Lake to succeed CFO Doug Braunstein
  • Bain Capital sued over acquisition by ex-software executive
  • Stanford’s accountants convicted of hiding $7b fraud

 EARNINGS:

    • Tech Data (TECD) 6am, $1.35
    • Trina Solar (TSL) 6:28am, $(0.65)
    • Hormel Foods (HRL) 6:30am, $0.50
    • American Woodmark (AMWD) 6:30am, $0.04
    • Patterson (PDCO) 7am, $0.49
    • HJ Heinz (HNZ) 7am, $0.88 Preview
    • DSW (DSW) 7am, $0.89
    • Jinko Solar (JKS) 7:03am, $(4.84)
    • Medtronic (MDT) 7:15am, $0.88
    • Chico’s FAS (CHS) 7:15am, $0.23
    • Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) 7:30am, $1.14 Preview
    • Campbell Soup (CPB) 7:30am, $0.85 Preview
    • Signet Jewelers (SIG) 7:30am, $0.37
    • Inergy LP (NRGY) 7:45am, $(0.05)
    • Inergy Midstream (NRGM) 7:45am, $0.23
    • George Weston (WN CN) 8am, C$1.40
    • Best Buy (BBY) 8am, $0.12
    • Barnes & Noble (BKS) 8:30am, $(0.01)
    • Eaton Vance (EV) 8:40am, $0.48
    • Valspar (VAL) 8:42am, $0.85
    • Raven Industries (RAVN) 9am, $0.34
    • Salesforce.com (CRM) 4:05pm, $0.32
    • Zale (ZLC) 4:05pm, $(0.69)
    • China Digital (STV) 5pm, NA

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Oil Drops From One-Month High Amid Speculation U.S. Supply Rose
  • Soros Buying Gold as Record Prices Seen on Stimulus: Commodities
  • Ex-Merrill Banker Starts Japan Hedge Fund Seeking 20% Return
  • Codelco Said to Reduce Japan, Korea Copper Surcharge in 2013
  • Gold Trades Near One-Week High on Europe, Middle East Concern
  • Wheat Swings Between Gains and Losses on Impact of U.S. Drought
  • Austrian Mint’s Gold Sales Through Bars, Coins Retreat in 2012
  • Iron-Ore Exports From India Seen at 10-Year Low by Macquarie
  • Cocoa Gains on Signs Demand Outstrips Supply; Coffee, Sugar Drop
  • Oil Supplies Climb to Four-Month High in Survey: Energy Markets
  • Xstrata Investors Seen Backing Glencore Takeover in Biggest Deal
  • Italy Truffle Prices Rise on Russians, Drought: Chart of the Day
  • VTB Turns Alchemist as Bond Ties Return to Gold: Russia Credit
  • Olam Slumps After Muddy Waters’ Block Questions Accounts

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5A

CURRENCIES


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6A

EUROPEAN MARKETS


FRANCE – downgraded by Moodys which is just a preview of the pending US downgrade in 2013 if politicians don’t deliver said bacon; CAC40 -0.5% after European stocks melted up yest, but remains bearish TREND: German DAX TREND line of 7116 is one of the most important macro lines on our screen; Russia -20.2% since March remains in crash mode.


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7A

 

ASIAN MARKETS


CHINA – Shanghai Comp -0.4% re-testing YTD lows (-18.4% from the March #GrowthSlowing top) after meeting w/ Obama and Chinese leaders suggesting no more rate cuts in 2012; Foreign Direct Investment in China remains -3.5% y/y through OCT.

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8A

 

 

MIDDLE EAST


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 9A

The Hedgeye Macro Team