TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – November 19, 2012
As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 29 points or 1.83% downside to 1335 and 0.30% upside to 1364
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- YIELD CURVE: 1.37 from 1.34
- BONDS – the US Treasury market has not and could not care less about Equity emotions flickering on the futures tick; 10yr at 1.60% this morning remains in a Bearish Formation; Bonds remain in a Bullish Formation, despite High Yield and IG debt underperforming last wk (HYG looking interesting short side for the 1st time in a long time).
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):
- 10am: NAHB Housing Market Index, Nov., est. 41 (prior 41)
- 10am: Existing Home Sales, Oct., est. 4.75m (prior 4.75m)
- 11am: Fed to sell $7b-$8b notes due 7/31/15-11/15/15
- 11:30am: U.S. Treasury to sell $32b 3 mo. bills, $28b 6 mo. bills
- 4pm: Crop conditions: winter wheat
GOVERNMENT:
- President Obama continues trip to Southeast Asia, visits Myanmar
- Brookings Institution holds discussion on capital markets, fiscal cliff with Robert Greifeld, CEO of Nasdaq. 1pm
- House, Senate not in session
WHAT TO WATCH
- Cisco buys Meraki for $1.2b to add technology that elps businesses manage Wi-Fi networks remotely
- Obama says he’s confident about deal to avoid fiscal cliff
- Oct. sales of previously owned homes probably stayed at 2-yr high of 4.75m annual rate
- Jana proposes 5 new directors for Canada’s Agrium: G&M
- European finance chiefs seek to settle Greek aid this wk amid IMF spat
- Nintendo Wii U goes on sale in U.S. with apps, no TVii
- News Corp. expected 49% bid to value YES channel at $3b: NYT
- Wal-Mart workers vow to mount 1k protests online and outside stores up to and including Black Friday
- Hostess to seek approval to liquidate as Metropoulos weighs bid
- ITC decision on whether to review Apple vs Samsung findings
- EMI goes on auction block again this wk as Universal Music divests some assets to meet antitrust requirements
- Israel ready to invade Gaza Strip if cease-fire efforts fail
- HSBC is in talks to sell its $9b stake in Ping An Insurance
- Shadow banking grows to $67t industry, Financial Stability Board said in a report
- Weekly agendas: IPO, Media/Entertainment, Real Estate, Health, Consumer, Tech, Transport, Industrial, Energy, Canada Energy, Canada Mining
EARNINGS:
- Lowe’s (LOW) 6am, $0.35 Preview
- New Jersey Resources (NJR) 6:59am, $(0.26)
- Tyson Foods (TSN) 7:30am, $0.44
- Laclede (LG) 8:30am, $(0.17)
- Urban Outfitters (URBN) 4pm, $0.41
- Nuance Communications (NUAN) 4:01pm, $0.48
- Bob Evans (BOBE) 4:01pm, $0.61
- Krispy Kreme (KKD) 4:01pm, $0.08
- Brocade Communications (BRCD) 4:04pm, $0.14
- Agilent Technologies (A) 4:05pm, $0.80
- Perfect World (PWRD) 5pm, $0.48
- Qihoo 360 (QIHU) 5pm, $0.14
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
- Gold Gains in London on Weaker Dollar, Israel Conflict Concern
- Hedge Funds Cut Bets in Longest Retreat Since 2008: Commodities
- Oil Rises a Second Day Amid Israel Conflict, U.S. Budget Talks
- Soybeans Gain From Lowest Price Since June as U.S. Exports Jump
- Copper Rises in London on Speculation U.S. to Avoid Fiscal Cliff
- Sugar Gains Amid Speculation Recent Price Drop Attracting Buyers
- Iron-Ore Swaps Fall Most in a Month on China Real-Estate Prices
- Gold Set for Record in Euros by End of Year: Technical Analysis
- Speculators Sell Gas at 1-Year High to Utilities: Energy Markets
- Condoms Provide Lifeline for Malaysian Rubber: Southeast Asia
- Glasenberg Breaks Word on Equal With Glencore-Xstrata Deal Near
- BP Seen Takeover Target as Valuation Sinks on Settlement: Energy
- IEA Says Energy Demand to Rise By More Than a Third to 2035
- Cocoa-Growing Nations Seen Grinding 50% of Beans in Three Years
- Rebar Declines on Speculation China Won’t Relax Property Curbs
CURRENCIES
EUROPEAN MARKETS
EUROPE – Europe is picking up +1.1% of last week’s -2.7% decline in the EuroStoxx600; big damage done on that move as TREND lines snapped across the board; so watch the DAX from here as its TREND line of 7116 is one of the most important on my screens for Equity risk, globally; covered our Spain short on Friday, making us 16 for 17 (all-time) on the short side.
ASIAN MARKETS
ASIA – very mixed message coming out of Asian Equities this morn – Japan is channeling its inner-Krugman w/ money printing rhetoric = Yen down, Stocks straight up (+1.4% overnight post Nikkei +3% last wk), but Chinese stocks closed 11bps above their YTD lows after the new leadership didn’t deliver a Western style bailout; Indonesia -0.87% led decliners.
MIDDLE EAST
The Hedgeye Macro Team