THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – November 19, 2012


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 29 points or 1.83% downside to 1335 and 0.30% upside to 1364

 

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - New

 

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 10

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 1.37 from 1.34
  • BONDS – the US Treasury market has not and could not care less about Equity emotions flickering on the futures tick; 10yr at 1.60% this morning remains in a Bearish Formation; Bonds remain in a Bullish Formation, despite High Yield and IG debt underperforming last wk (HYG looking interesting short side for the 1st time in a long time).

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 10am: NAHB Housing Market Index, Nov., est. 41 (prior 41)
  • 10am: Existing Home Sales, Oct., est. 4.75m (prior 4.75m)
  • 11am: Fed to sell $7b-$8b notes due 7/31/15-11/15/15
  • 11:30am: U.S. Treasury to sell $32b 3 mo. bills, $28b 6 mo. bills
  • 4pm: Crop conditions: winter wheat

GOVERNMENT:

    • President Obama continues trip to Southeast Asia, visits Myanmar
    • Brookings Institution holds discussion on capital markets, fiscal cliff with Robert Greifeld, CEO of Nasdaq. 1pm
    • House, Senate not in session

WHAT TO WATCH

  • Cisco buys Meraki for $1.2b to add technology that elps businesses manage Wi-Fi networks remotely
  • Obama says he’s confident about deal to avoid fiscal cliff
  • Oct. sales of previously owned homes probably stayed at 2-yr high of 4.75m annual rate
  • Jana proposes 5 new directors for Canada’s Agrium: G&M
  • European finance chiefs seek to settle Greek aid this wk amid IMF spat
  • Nintendo Wii U goes on sale in U.S. with apps, no TVii
  • News Corp. expected 49% bid to value YES channel at $3b: NYT
  • Wal-Mart workers vow to mount 1k protests online and outside stores up to and including Black Friday
  • Hostess to seek approval to liquidate as Metropoulos weighs bid
  • ITC decision on whether to review Apple vs Samsung findings
  • EMI goes on auction block again this wk as Universal Music divests some assets to meet antitrust requirements
  • Israel ready to invade Gaza Strip if cease-fire efforts fail
  • HSBC is in talks to sell its $9b stake in Ping An Insurance
  • Shadow banking grows to $67t industry, Financial Stability Board said in a report
  • Weekly agendas: IPO, Media/Entertainment, Real Estate, Health, Consumer, Tech, Transport, Industrial, Energy, Canada Energy, Canada Mining

EARNINGS:

    • Lowe’s (LOW) 6am, $0.35 Preview
    • New Jersey Resources (NJR) 6:59am, $(0.26)
    • Tyson Foods (TSN) 7:30am, $0.44
    • Laclede (LG) 8:30am, $(0.17)
    • Urban Outfitters (URBN) 4pm, $0.41
    • Nuance Communications (NUAN) 4:01pm, $0.48
    • Bob Evans (BOBE) 4:01pm, $0.61
    • Krispy Kreme (KKD) 4:01pm, $0.08
    • Brocade Communications (BRCD) 4:04pm, $0.14
    • Agilent Technologies (A) 4:05pm, $0.80
    • Perfect World (PWRD) 5pm, $0.48
    • Qihoo 360 (QIHU) 5pm, $0.14

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Gold Gains in London on Weaker Dollar, Israel Conflict Concern
  • Hedge Funds Cut Bets in Longest Retreat Since 2008: Commodities
  • Oil Rises a Second Day Amid Israel Conflict, U.S. Budget Talks
  • Soybeans Gain From Lowest Price Since June as U.S. Exports Jump
  • Copper Rises in London on Speculation U.S. to Avoid Fiscal Cliff
  • Sugar Gains Amid Speculation Recent Price Drop Attracting Buyers
  • Iron-Ore Swaps Fall Most in a Month on China Real-Estate Prices
  • Gold Set for Record in Euros by End of Year: Technical Analysis
  • Speculators Sell Gas at 1-Year High to Utilities: Energy Markets
  • Condoms Provide Lifeline for Malaysian Rubber: Southeast Asia
  • Glasenberg Breaks Word on Equal With Glencore-Xstrata Deal Near
  • BP Seen Takeover Target as Valuation Sinks on Settlement: Energy
  • IEA Says Energy Demand to Rise By More Than a Third to 2035
  • Cocoa-Growing Nations Seen Grinding 50% of Beans in Three Years
  • Rebar Declines on Speculation China Won’t Relax Property Curbs

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - comm

 

 

CURRENCIES


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS


EUROPE – Europe is picking up +1.1% of last week’s -2.7% decline in the EuroStoxx600; big damage done on that move as TREND lines snapped across the board; so watch the DAX from here as its TREND line of 7116 is one of the most important on my screens for Equity risk, globally; covered our Spain short on Friday, making us 16 for 17 (all-time) on the short side.

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 


ASIAN MARKETS


ASIA – very mixed message coming out of Asian Equities this morn – Japan is channeling its inner-Krugman w/ money printing rhetoric = Yen down, Stocks straight up (+1.4% overnight post Nikkei +3% last wk), but Chinese stocks closed 11bps above their YTD lows after the new leadership didn’t deliver a Western style bailout; Indonesia -0.87% led decliners.

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

 

 

MIDDLE EAST


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 9

 

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 

 

 


Did the US Economy Just “Collapse”? "Worst Personal Spending Since 2009"?

This is a brief note written by Hedgeye U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake on 4/28 dispelling media reporting that “US GDP collapses to 0.7%, the lowest number in three years with the worst personal spending since 2009.”

read more

7 Tweets Summing Up What You Need to Know About Today's GDP Report

"There's a tremendous opportunity to educate people in our profession on how GDP is stated and projected," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote today. Here's everything you need to know about today's GDP report.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Crash Test Bear

In the past six months, U.S. stock indices are up between +12% and +18%.

read more

GOLD: A Deep Dive on What’s Next with a Top Commodities Strategist

“If you saved in gold over the past 20 to 25 years rather than any currency anywhere in the world, gold has outperformed all these currencies,” says Stefan Wieler, Vice President of Goldmoney in this edition of Real Conversations.

read more

Exact Sciences Up +24% This Week... What's Next? | $EXAS

We remain long Exact Sciences in the Hedgeye Healthcare Position Monitor.

read more

Inside the Atlanta Fed's Flawed GDP Tracker

"The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNowcast model, while useful at amalgamating investor consensus on one singular GDP estimate for any given quarter, is certainly not the end-all-be-all of forecasting U.S. GDP," writes Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

"Most people who are making a ton of money right now are focused on growth companies seeing accelerations," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look. "That’s what happens in Quad 1."

read more

People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

read more

UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

read more

Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

read more

Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

read more

An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

read more