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TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – November 19, 2012


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 29 points or 1.83% downside to 1335 and 0.30% upside to 1364

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

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EQUITY SENTIMENT:

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CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 1.37 from 1.34
  • BONDS – the US Treasury market has not and could not care less about Equity emotions flickering on the futures tick; 10yr at 1.60% this morning remains in a Bearish Formation; Bonds remain in a Bullish Formation, despite High Yield and IG debt underperforming last wk (HYG looking interesting short side for the 1st time in a long time).

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 10am: NAHB Housing Market Index, Nov., est. 41 (prior 41)
  • 10am: Existing Home Sales, Oct., est. 4.75m (prior 4.75m)
  • 11am: Fed to sell $7b-$8b notes due 7/31/15-11/15/15
  • 11:30am: U.S. Treasury to sell $32b 3 mo. bills, $28b 6 mo. bills
  • 4pm: Crop conditions: winter wheat

GOVERNMENT:

    • President Obama continues trip to Southeast Asia, visits Myanmar
    • Brookings Institution holds discussion on capital markets, fiscal cliff with Robert Greifeld, CEO of Nasdaq. 1pm
    • House, Senate not in session

WHAT TO WATCH

  • Cisco buys Meraki for $1.2b to add technology that elps businesses manage Wi-Fi networks remotely
  • Obama says he’s confident about deal to avoid fiscal cliff
  • Oct. sales of previously owned homes probably stayed at 2-yr high of 4.75m annual rate
  • Jana proposes 5 new directors for Canada’s Agrium: G&M
  • European finance chiefs seek to settle Greek aid this wk amid IMF spat
  • Nintendo Wii U goes on sale in U.S. with apps, no TVii
  • News Corp. expected 49% bid to value YES channel at $3b: NYT
  • Wal-Mart workers vow to mount 1k protests online and outside stores up to and including Black Friday
  • Hostess to seek approval to liquidate as Metropoulos weighs bid
  • ITC decision on whether to review Apple vs Samsung findings
  • EMI goes on auction block again this wk as Universal Music divests some assets to meet antitrust requirements
  • Israel ready to invade Gaza Strip if cease-fire efforts fail
  • HSBC is in talks to sell its $9b stake in Ping An Insurance
  • Shadow banking grows to $67t industry, Financial Stability Board said in a report
  • Weekly agendas: IPO, Media/Entertainment, Real Estate, Health, Consumer, Tech, Transport, Industrial, Energy, Canada Energy, Canada Mining

EARNINGS:

    • Lowe’s (LOW) 6am, $0.35 Preview
    • New Jersey Resources (NJR) 6:59am, $(0.26)
    • Tyson Foods (TSN) 7:30am, $0.44
    • Laclede (LG) 8:30am, $(0.17)
    • Urban Outfitters (URBN) 4pm, $0.41
    • Nuance Communications (NUAN) 4:01pm, $0.48
    • Bob Evans (BOBE) 4:01pm, $0.61
    • Krispy Kreme (KKD) 4:01pm, $0.08
    • Brocade Communications (BRCD) 4:04pm, $0.14
    • Agilent Technologies (A) 4:05pm, $0.80
    • Perfect World (PWRD) 5pm, $0.48
    • Qihoo 360 (QIHU) 5pm, $0.14

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Gold Gains in London on Weaker Dollar, Israel Conflict Concern
  • Hedge Funds Cut Bets in Longest Retreat Since 2008: Commodities
  • Oil Rises a Second Day Amid Israel Conflict, U.S. Budget Talks
  • Soybeans Gain From Lowest Price Since June as U.S. Exports Jump
  • Copper Rises in London on Speculation U.S. to Avoid Fiscal Cliff
  • Sugar Gains Amid Speculation Recent Price Drop Attracting Buyers
  • Iron-Ore Swaps Fall Most in a Month on China Real-Estate Prices
  • Gold Set for Record in Euros by End of Year: Technical Analysis
  • Speculators Sell Gas at 1-Year High to Utilities: Energy Markets
  • Condoms Provide Lifeline for Malaysian Rubber: Southeast Asia
  • Glasenberg Breaks Word on Equal With Glencore-Xstrata Deal Near
  • BP Seen Takeover Target as Valuation Sinks on Settlement: Energy
  • IEA Says Energy Demand to Rise By More Than a Third to 2035
  • Cocoa-Growing Nations Seen Grinding 50% of Beans in Three Years
  • Rebar Declines on Speculation China Won’t Relax Property Curbs

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CURRENCIES


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EUROPEAN MARKETS


EUROPE – Europe is picking up +1.1% of last week’s -2.7% decline in the EuroStoxx600; big damage done on that move as TREND lines snapped across the board; so watch the DAX from here as its TREND line of 7116 is one of the most important on my screens for Equity risk, globally; covered our Spain short on Friday, making us 16 for 17 (all-time) on the short side.

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ASIAN MARKETS


ASIA – very mixed message coming out of Asian Equities this morn – Japan is channeling its inner-Krugman w/ money printing rhetoric = Yen down, Stocks straight up (+1.4% overnight post Nikkei +3% last wk), but Chinese stocks closed 11bps above their YTD lows after the new leadership didn’t deliver a Western style bailout; Indonesia -0.87% led decliners.

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MIDDLE EAST


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The Hedgeye Macro Team