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There is a bit of tailwind building relative to typically stale Street estimates. As can be seen in the chart, the US dollar index is down 6% in less than 2 weeks. Against the Euro, the dollar has also fallen 6% over the same period. Sure, the dollar is still up 15% on the Euro over last year but that should already be reflected in Analysts’ estimates. Most of the lodging companies have reported earnings over the last month and have given guidance based on a higher dollar.

Bernanke’s recent efforts could continue to pressure the dollar. Our Macro team has been arguing for a weaker dollar to re-inflate assets and stocks. The two lodging companies in our sights with significant FX exposure are HOT and OEH. The dollar move thus far is not yet significant enough to warrant an estimate change for HOT, but it may be for OEH. We calculate about a 1% and 5% positive impact to company EBIT, respectively. If we’re right on the dollar, the impact will be more pronounced. Stay tuned.