For months, pundits have claimed that China's economy and markets have bottomed. It’s a shame they keep doing this because, simply put: they’re wrong. China has continued to fall with stocks getting slammed this morning to the tune of a -1.5% drop.
Our macro team notes that China’s economy is in the process of bottoming, but has yet to hit the floor. Land sales by area are down mid-teens percentages on a year-over-year basis and the spot price of Chinese Rebar (see below) is well below 2009 lows with the ability to go lower. Rebar is a unique yet useful barometer of China's economy which is why we've monitored it so closely over the last few years.
