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THE M3: CHUI COMMENTS; WYNN COTAI

The Macau Metro Monitor, November 13, 2012

 

 

2013 POLICY ADDRESS Macau Business

Macau CEO Chui didn’t announce any special measures for the gaming sector, although he stressed the government wants casino operators to better fulfill their social role and further promote responsible gambling. He confirmed the completed Taipa Ferry terminal should only be ready in the first half of 2014. The terminal was first intended to be up and running by 2007.

 

The cash handout program will continue in 2013, handing even more money to both residents and non-residents.  Permanent residents will receive MOP8,000, while non-permanent residents MOP4,800.  This year’s cash handout was MOP7,000  for each permanent resident while non-permanent residents received MOP4,200.

 

LEIGHTON TO BUILD WYNN COTAI Macau Business

A subsidiary of Australian-based Leighton Holdings Ltd has been chosen by Wynn Macau Ltd as the preferred proponent to design and build its maiden property in Cotai.  According to Leighton, Wynn Cotai’s construction is scheduled to begin next month and the expected completion date is in early 2016.  The 
total budget for the project is estimated to be in the range of US$3.5 billion to US$4 billion.

 

 



The Electoral Storm

This note was originally published at 8am on October 30, 2012 for Hedgeye subscribers.

“If you play with the power, the lights go out.”

-Yale Hockey adage

 

For many on the eastern seaboard this morning, the power being out is no joke.  By some estimates that I’ve seen the total number without power exceeds some 8 million people.  I can certainly attest that much of the Hedgeye team that lives in New York City or along the Connecticut shoreline is without power this morning.  In fact, our CEO Keith McCullough just sent me a picture from his driveway and he and his family are completely blocked in due to fallen trees in their driveway.

 

I think the best thing you can say when a storm like this occurs is that it could have been worse.  From what I can tell, the government, who we are sometimes apt to criticize, did an excellent job getting in front of Sandy and sending out appropriate warnings.  That said, New Jersey Governor Christie unfortunately may have made a major political mistake in cancelling Halloween.  He has clearly now completely lost the 12 and under demographic.

 

From a global macro perspective, the key question relating to Sandy is what, if any, impact it will have on the election.  It seems in the short term, the storm has caused President Obama to pull back on his campaign schedule, while the Romney / Ryan team is staying at it in Ohio and Wisconsin today.  At this juncture of the election, it’s not clear if another couple of campaign stops really matter.

 

In terms of real time impact from the storm, Intrade barely budged over night, which suggests neither candidate will really get a meaningful bounce from anything Sandy related.  So we go back to a Presidential race that is increasingly becoming too close to call.  On a national poll level, Romney remains with the ever so slight edge, but his major issue remains Ohio.

 

If we take the average of the last 10 polls in Ohio, Obama has an advantage of +1.9.  Even as one-off polls can be wildly inaccurate, historically the averages of polls have been a pretty good indicator of outcomes.  So, even if the undecided voters swing meaningfully to Romney at this point, Obama appears to have enough of an edge in polls to win Ohio.  As a result, Romney’s chance of an Electoral College victory appears almost impossible.  The question, of course, is can we believe the Ohio polls?

 

That last statement is certainly not me trying to be a conspiracy theorist, but rather just to highlight some clear discrepancies amongst the Ohio polls.  As I wrote to one of our subscribers yesterday, if we dig deeper into the Ohio polls, we get some color on what could be the major wild card of this election, which is that there is some serious skew in the polls. I’ll give you a couple of examples related to Ohio:

  • In a recent poll from Gravis marketing, it has Obama with a +1 point lead on Romney, but the sample has 40% Democrats, 32% Republicans and 28% Independents;
  • In another recent poll from Public Policy Polling, the poll has Obama with a +4 lead, but the sample is 43% Democrats, 35% Republicans and 21% Independents; and
  • Finally, a recent Ohio Newspaper Poll has the raced tied, but the sample was 47% Democrats, 44% Republican and 10% Independents.

Clearly, turnout is the major wild card in Ohio and a factor the polls are not modeling with any consistency.

 

The other wild card is the economy.  We did a call with Professor Ken Bickers from Colorado who has accurately modeled Presidential election outcomes going back to 1980 based on state level economic data.  His analysis shows that Romney should win in a veritable landslide of 330 Electoral College votes.  We’ve posted a link to the presentation below if you did not get a chance to see it live:

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PzzFuAE14cY&feature=youtu.be&noredirect=1

 

Similar to dealing with Sandy, the best thing for most of us will be when this election is behind us.  It is time for American politicians to start working together again, just as all Americans do in times of national need.  To that end, I’d like to leave you with a quote from both President Obama and Governor Romney.

 

The American culture promotes personal responsibility, the dignity of work, the value of education, the merit of service, devotion to a purpose greater than self, and at the foundation, the pre-eminence of family.
                -Governor Mitt Romney

 

“And I will do everything that I can as long as I am President of the United States to remind American people that we are one nation under God, and we may call that God different names but we remain one nation.”

                -President Barack Obama

 

All the best to you and your families in the coming days.

 

Keep your head up and stick on the ice,

 

Daryl G. Jones

Director of Research

 

In terms of logistics from our end, we still are planning to host or best ideas call this Thursday at 1:30pm.  We will be re-circulating dial in information and materials ahead of the call, so stay tuned for that. 

 

The Electoral Storm - bb. el

 

The Electoral Storm - bb portfolio


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – November 13, 2012


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 39 points or 1.16% downside to 1364 and 1.66% upside to 1403. 


SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 10

 


CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 1.35 from 1.35
  • 10YR – got #GrowthSlowing? Treasuries ripping since Election Day with the UST 10yr yield testing its August low here this morn at 1.58%; good spot to sell some of your Fixed Income gross long exposure and buy US and German stocks provided that 1364 TAIL risk line for SPX holds.

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 7:30am: NFIB Small Bus. Optimism, Oct., est. 93 (prior 92.8)
  • 7:45am: ICSC weekly sales
  • 8:55am: Johnson/Redbook weekly sale
  • 10am: IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, Nov., est. 54 (prior 54)
  • 11am: Fed to purchase $4.35b-$5.25b notes due 11/15/18-8/15/20
  • 11:30am: U.S. Treasury to sell $32b 3-mo. bills, $28b 6-mo. bills
  • 2pm: Monthly Budget Statement, Oct., est. -$113b (prior -$98.5)
  • 3:30pm: Fed’s Yellen speaks at Berkeley

GOVERNMENT:

    • Congress returns for post-election “lame duck” session
    • Bloomberg Government, National Defense Industrial Association hold webinar on “Post-Election Sequestration,” 2pm
    • Geithner speaks at WSJ CEO Council conference, 4pm
    • Inter-American Development Bank holds second day of the 36th meeting of the network of Central Banks and Finance Ministers
    • ITC may announce review of judge’s findings that companies infringe patents owned by Vitec Group’s Litepanels for LEDs, 5pm

WHAT TO WATCH

  • Europe gives Greece extra time, spars with IMF on debt plan
  • Spanish yields climb to six-week high
  • Microsoft’s Sinofsky departs as Larson-Green ascends at Windows
  • U.K. inflation quickens more than forecast on tuition fees
  • Kodak gets $793m in financing to exit bankruptcy by mid-2013
  • Weatherford finds material weakness in internal controls
  • NBC Universal said to cut ~450 jobs across several units
  • Fiat must pay $342m for Chrysler stake, retiree fund says
  • Vodafone, Verizon Communications get $8.5b from venture
  • NYSE computer issue leads to no closing auction in 216 stocks
  • Goldman said to promote 70 to partner, lowest in yrs, WSJ says
  • Goldman said to plan exit from asset management in Korea

EARNINGS

    • Home Depot (HD) 6am, $0.70 - Preview
    • Quebecor (QBR/B CN) 6am, C$0.73
    • AECOM Technology (ACM) 6:30am, $0.82
    • AuRico Gold (AUQ CN) 7am, $0.05
    • Michael Kors (KORS) 7am, $0.40
    • Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS) 7:30am, $0.37
    • Saks (SKS) 8am, $0.12
    • Baytex Energy (BTE CN) 8am, C$0.31
    • Shoppers Drug Mart (SC CN) 8:28am, C$0.81
    • TJX Cos (TJX) 8:32am, $0.61
    • Woodward (WWD) 4pm, $0.57
    • Wesco Aircraft Holdings (WAIR) 4:01pm, $0.24
    • Cisco Systems (CSCO) 4:04pm, $0.46
    • Osisko Mining (OSK CN) 4:05pm, C$0.05
    • Giant Interactive (GA) 4:30pm, $0.19
    • Silvercorp Metals (SVM CN) 5pm, $0.07
    • Renren (RENN) 6pm, $0.05
    • Chartwell Seniors Housing REIT (CSH-U CN) 6:06pm, C$0.20
    • IAMGOLD (IMG CN) Post-Mkt, $0.24
    • B2Gold (BTO CN) Post-Mkt, $0.05

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Oil Drops on Signs of Rising U.S. Supply, Reduced Demand Outlook
  • Chocolate Rush Hits Record as Cocoa Shortages Loom: Commodities
  • Platinum, Palladium Shortage Most in a Decade on Falling Supply
  • Copper Declines on Greece Funding Delay, China Output Data
  • Gold Drops in New York Trading as Stronger Dollar Curbs Demand
  • Soybeans Rebound as Drop to Four-Month Low May Spur Purchases
  • Gold to Climb to $1,849, LBMA Survey Shows, as Outlook Cut
  • Sugar Resumes Drop as Commodities Slide on Europe; Coffee Falls
  • Shanghai Rebar Drops for First Time in Three Days on Winter Risk
  • Raw Material Prices Squeezing Aluminum Producers: Bear Case
  • U.K. Regulators Probe Allegations of Price-Fixing in Gas Market
  • Iron-Ore Rebound Boosts STX With Record Chinese Imports: Freight
  • China Oil Production Rises to Record on Demand From Refiners
  • North Sea Buzzard Field Said to Resume Oil Flows Late Yesterday

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

 

CURRENCIES


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS


RUSSIA – back into crash mode we go with the RTSI leading losers in Europe this morning, -1.3% (down 20.9% since #GrowthSlowing started, globally, in March. We’ll keep writing that btw, because A) its true and B) its rarely highlighted as true by consensus bulls within the context of the SEP Bernanke Top.

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

 

ASIAN MARKETS


CHINA – Shanghai Comp gets spanked, down -1.5% overnight and down for the 6th day in the last 7; “China has bottomed” crowd quiet as the Chinese don’t behave like Krugman. Chinese stocks -16.8% since #GrowthSlowing started, globally, in March.

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

 

MIDDLE EAST


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 9

 

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 

 

 


Attention Students...

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TRADE OF THE DAY: PCAR

Today we bought PACCAR (PCAR) for $43.27 a share at 3:07 PM EDT in our Real Time Alets. PACCAR has been one of our top long ideas and Hedgeye Industrials Sector Head Jay Van Sciver likes the long-term prospects for the company. The stock is holding both TRADE and TREND support; we like.

 

TRADE OF THE DAY: PCAR  - PCAR


Down The Chain: CAT Dealer Results & Thesis Update

Takeaway: Dealer results leave us to question whether a rebound in orders to "end-user demand" would be such a positive for $CAT.

Down The Chain:  CAT Dealer Results & Thesis Update

 

We continue to think that Caterpillar’s results are at or near a cyclical peak driven by recent bubble-like capital investment by basic resources companies.  Importantly, we see ongoing evidence suggesting that the cycle has turned and will remain weak for a prolonged period.  Dealer results, discussed below, add to our concerns.  Consensus estimates for 2013 have declined significantly since our 9/14/2012 Black Book and the share price is lower.  While this leaves us a little less bearish, we see continued downside.  In our view, there are less risky investment opportunities on the equipment side in Paccar, and in the sector more broadly in FedEx.

 

Recent improvements in Chinese data suggest that its economy is in a bottoming process (see work by Darius Dale and Hedgeye Macro team).  While this may be the case, land sales by area are still down a mid-teens percentage YoY.  Local metals prices point to ongoing weakness in Chinese construction, a key end-market for mining.  Chinese average real rebar prices have lurched back below their 2009 lows in recent weeks.

 

Down The Chain:  CAT Dealer Results & Thesis Update  - cat1

 

 

Deep Cyclical


Caterpillar is a capital equipment supplier to highly cyclical end-markets, especially mining.  Capital spending at cyclical companies tends to be more cyclical than the top-lines themselves.  Considering this, buying into an earnings peak at CAT seems like a mistake.  Down cycles can be long-lived.

 

Down The Chain:  CAT Dealer Results & Thesis Update  - cat2

 

 

Estimates Up & To The Right

 

Consensus tends to simply extrapolate recent results higher.  While this forecasting method is unlikely to work well for most companies, the results are particularly inaccurate for cyclicals.  Currently, estimates extrapolate near-peak results.  Taking a multiple of estimated earnings is not a robust valuation approach, in our view.

 

Down The Chain:  CAT Dealer Results & Thesis Update  - cat3

 

 

Dealer Results Look Like CAT’s Results


CAT’s backlog declined during the past two quarters, supporting reported sales and profits relative to orders.   Implied orders in 3Q 2012 were at the lowest percentage of trailing sales since the financial crisis.   Orders tend to lead deliveries and revenues for obvious reasons.  Interestingly, the quantity of long-term orders as a percentage of total backlog at CAT has also nearly doubled from 13.4% in 4Q 2011 to 22.5% at the end of 3Q 2012.  That suggests orders might be at risk of cancellation as customers exercise delay options, in our view.

 

Down The Chain:  CAT Dealer Results & Thesis Update  - cat4

 

 

CAT Dealer Orders Deteriorate

Caterpillar dealers have served the company well over the years and have carved out a nice return for themselves in the process.  A number of dealers are public, allowing insight directly into customer activity.  Recent results suggest that end-user order activity has declined significantly.  CAT management has said that “end-user demand” is more robust than current CAT orders based on dealer deliveries.  However, this seems somewhat misleading because dealer deliveries lag dealer orders.  CAT’s comments imply that revised 2012 and 2013 guidance is the product of dealer inventory adjustments and Caterpillar orders will soon return to high levels (“end-user demand”).  From CAT’s 3Q 2012 10Q:

“Dealer reported new machine inventory increased about $400 million during the third quarter of 2012 compared with an increase of about $675 million during the third quarter of 2011. Dealer machine inventories at the end of the third quarter of 2012 are higher than historic averages relative to dealer deliveries to end users. Dealers have substantially lowered order rates below machine deliveries to end users, which we expect will result in dealer inventory reductions in the fourth quarter and continue into 2013. As a result of the anticipated reductions in dealer inventories as well as global economic conditions that are weaker than previously expected, we are lowering production in many facilities around the world. Lower production levels will continue until inventories decline and dealer order rates increase and are more in line with end-user demand.” – CAT 3Q 2012 10Q Page 57

 

However, implied order activity at the dealer level in the results we have seen suggest that end-user demand has weakened significantly.  Backlogs have come down at the dealer level, too, sustaining current deliveries.  Dealers do appear to have too much inventory, but they also appear to have suffered a significant order decline.  That one/two punch will further push down CAT 2013 revenue and profit estimates, in our view.

 

Finning: New Equipment Implied Orders Down 45% YoY in 3Q 2012

 

Finning, like Caterpillar, drew down backlogs last quarter.  Backlogs for new equipment fell from $1.7 billion to $1.4 billion, with sales in the quarter at $723 million.  Implied orders were only ~$423 million in 3Q 2012 vs. ~$760 million in 3Q 2011, a 45% drop, by our estimates.

[The] Company is focused on reducing uncommitted inventory levels and prudently managing working capital.” – Finning 3Q Filing

 

Wajax: Oil, Gas and Mining Weakness

 

Wajax is a smaller Canadian dealer than Finning and has shown similar business trends.  The company noted weakness in oil and gas orders, which was of particular interest since many investors expect this area of CAT’s business to hold up well.

“Overall backlog declined primarily as a result of a reduction in customer orders in the mining and oil and gas sectors…While the number of outstanding quotes for mining equipment continues to be significant, customers have been delaying their purchasing decisions in the face of lower commodity prices…Looking forward we expect softness in the oil and gas and mining sectors to continue into 2013.”  - Wajax 3Q 2012 Release/Filing

 

The Bull Story at Sime Darby: It’s Just Like the 2009 Global Financial Crisis (?)


In a recent presentation, Sime Darby, an Asia-based conglomerate with a large CAT dealer network, suggested that the current situation was similar to 2009.  We disagree, since the present environment looks nothing like 2009.  In 2009 the order decline was driven by a global financial crisis, which is absent today.  The current order declines have been driven by underlying market weakness following a decade of over-investments, in addition to stimulus spending roll-off, in our view.

 

 Down The Chain:  CAT Dealer Results & Thesis Update  - cat5

 

 

Sime Darby reports in late November, and we will be interested in the results and will look for updates to this bull rationale.

 

Jay Van Sciver, CFA

Managing Director


HEDGEYE RISK MANAGEMENT
120 Wooster St.

New York, NY 10012


 


SMOKIN IN THE BOYS ROOM

We haven't run the regression but we're pretty sure the correlation of male smokers to gamblers is pretty high. It's looking more likely than not that the smoking restrictions will go into effect in January. 

 

 

While there might be a delay in the implementation of the new smoking rules from January 1st to January 14th, it is unlikely the casinos will be able to successfully lobby for any further delay.  Once implemented, we believe there will be a major impact on the main gaming floor on table efficiency and labor costs as casinos will have a lot more players per table on the smoking tables.  It is unknown yet whether the casinos will be allowed to push less productive games into the non-smoking section or if regulators will require an equal distribution.

 

While the new smoking restrictions will likely supress demand and maybe impact margins, we don't believe there will be long-term ramifications.  However, we would caution that Q1 could be disappointing.  Since only the main gaming floor will be impacted, LVS and SJM could be the most at risk due to their Mass based business model.  LVS has built the most spacious gaming floors so that should alleviate some of the productivity issues.  Moreover, LVS is still ramping with Cotai Central and we think it's overall share will continue to grow to the low to mid 20s.

 

An order from the Macau CEO regarding the smoking ban was published in the Macau Gazette on November 5th and is summarized below:

  • Rules apply to all table games and slot machines
  • Smoking areas cannot be greater than 50% of the total area for the public
    • This rule excludes non-gaming establishments
  • Smoking areas must display the following:
    • Posters addressing no-smoking zones
      • Label with minimum dimension (40cm x 30cm) in Chinese, Portguese, and English 
    • Separation from other installations
    • Ventilation systems
  • Smoking area locations
    • In casinos with several floors and an atrium, smoking areas should be located on the upper floors
    • In casinos with a single floor, smoking area must be located opposite and separate from the non-smoking area.
  • Non-smoking areas can be achieved through the following measures:
    • Air curtain system
    • Transition area with inflation system
    • Transition area of at least 4 meters
    • Installation of a wall or fence with a minimum of 2 meters

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