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European Banking Monitor: THE ELECTION, THE CLIFF AND THE AUSTERITY

Takeaway: The election, fiscal cliff and renewed EU concerns triggered sharp selloffs in Financials. Credit markets were dragged lower as well.

Below are key European banking risk monitors, which are included as part of Josh Steiner and the Financial team's "Monday Morning Risk Monitor".  If you'd like to receive the work of the Financials team or request a trial please email .

 

Key Takeaways:

 * U.S and EU bank swaps were wider last week, on the heels of the American presidential elections, mounting fears about the looming fiscal cliff in the United States, and renewed concerns regarding Greek austerity. In the United States the money center banks and the large brokers saw that most widening. In Europe, bank swaps were wider, led by Italy, Spain, and France.

 

 * On OMTs Reporting: The ECB has stated that Aggregate Outright Monetary Transaction holdings and their market values will be published on a weekly basis and the average duration of Outright Monetary Transaction holdings and the breakdown by country will take place on a monthly basis. There is no indication that the OMTs has been initiated to date.

 

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If you’d like to discuss recent developments in Europe, from the political to financial to social, please let me know and we can set up a call.

 

Matthew Hedrick

Senior Analyst

 

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European Financials CDS Monitor – European financials followed Euro sovereigns, widening wee-over-week. Swiss banks were wider by 6 bps, while Spanish and Italian banks widened by 10-32 bps. French banks widened noticeably, while German banks widened slightly.

 

European Banking Monitor: THE ELECTION, THE CLIFF AND THE AUSTERITY - aa. banks

 

Euribor-OIS spread – The Euribor-OIS spread widened by 1 bp to 12 bps. The Euribor-OIS spread (the difference between the euro interbank lending rate and overnight indexed swaps) measures bank counterparty risk in the Eurozone. The OIS is analogous to the effective Fed Funds rate in the United States.  Banks lending at the OIS do not swap principal, so counterparty risk in the OIS is minimal.  By contrast, the Euribor rate is the rate offered for unsecured interbank lending.  Thus, the spread between the two isolates counterparty risk.

 

European Banking Monitor: THE ELECTION, THE CLIFF AND THE AUSTERITY - aa. euribor

 

ECB Liquidity Recourse to the Deposit Facility – No change in the trajectory here - overnight deposits continue to shrink. The ECB Liquidity Recourse to the Deposit Facility measures banks’ overnight deposits with the ECB.  Taken in conjunction with excess reserves, the ECB deposit facility measures excess liquidity in the Euro banking system.  An increase in this metric shows that banks are borrowing from the ECB.  In other words, the deposit facility measures one element of the ECB response to the crisis.  

 

European Banking Monitor: THE ELECTION, THE CLIFF AND THE AUSTERITY - aa. facility


Bearish Overtones

Short interest for the NYSE, AMEX and NASDAQ currently indicates a bearish overtone for stocks. For the two weeks ended 10/15 short interest for NYSE, NASDAQ and AMEX combined ticked down to 3.65% of the float from 3.67% prior. That’s the lowest ratio since the two weeks ended 5/15. We bounced off of 1364 in the S&P 500 (TAIL support) last week and are quite capable of re-testing that level this week.

 

Bearish Overtones  - shortinterest



Daily Trading Ranges

20 Proprietary Risk Ranges

Daily Trading Ranges is designed to help you understand where you’re buying and selling within the risk range and help you make better sales at the top end of the range and purchases at the low end.

DAX: German Upside

Last week, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough noted that his quantitative models indicated it was an excellent time to buy the DAX. While we currently have no active position in our Real Time Alerts, you can see that the DAX has been oversold in the last few days and is nearing TRADE support of 7103. Keep your eye on the prize.

 

DAX: German Upside - dax


MACAU: SOFTISH 2ND NOVEMBER WEEK

Average daily table revenues in Macau were down 3% YoY to HK$760 million.  We’ve ratcheted down our monthly projection slightly to a range of 5-12% YoY growth, still an acceleration from October’s 3% growth.

 

MACAU: SOFTISH 2ND NOVEMBER WEEK - macau1

 

While still early in the month, SJM and MGM are the clear winners here in November, both with share well above their respective October and trailing 3 month average shares.  MPEL and Galaxy have been share givers thus far in November.  While down from last week, LVS remains above its 3 month trend.

 

MACAU: SOFTISH 2ND NOVEMBER WEEK - MACAU2


Euro Yields

Our Senior Analyst Matthew Hedrick has drawn up a beautiful chart below that shows how 10-year government bond yields have performed in various European nations since 2010 to present. It tells a story of just how bad the situation in Europe has become and where it’s headed. Not surprisingly, Greece is still offering the highest yield these days while Italy continues to quell investors’ fears.

 

Euro Yields - euroyields


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