TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – November 12, 2012
As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 42 points or 1.15% downside to 1364 and 1.90% upside to 1406.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- YIELD CURVE: 1.35 from 1.36
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):
- Holiday in U.S., no data releases scheduled
- U.S. Rates Weekly Agenda
GOVERNMENT:
- Veteran’s Day observed; holiday for most federal workers
- Washington Week Ahead: Congress in lame-duck session
WHAT TO WATCH
- U.S. to overtake Saudi Arabia’s oil production by 2020: IEA
- Natural gas to become largest fuel in U.S. by 2030: IEA
- EU finance chiefs seek to keep bailout on track after Greek vote
- Apple settles HTC patent suits in shift away from Jobs’s war plan
- China’s loans unexpectedly fall as money supply misses forecasts
- Best Buy said to hire Williams-Sonoma’s Sharon McCollam as CFO
- Hertz said to divest outlets for FTC approval on Dollar Thrifty
- “Skyfall” has $87.8m in N. Am sales, record for a Bond film
- U.S. Weekly Agendas: Finance, Tech, Real Estate, Consumer, Health, Energy, Industrials, Media/Entertainment, Transports
- Canada Weekly Agendas: Energy, Mining
- U.S. Fiscal Cliff, China Exports: Week Ahead Nov. 12-17
EARNINGS
- Soufun (SFUN) 5:45am, $0.46
- Beazer Homes (BZH) 6am, $(1.11)
- DR Horton (DHI) 7am, $0.28 - Preview
- Petrobank Energy & Resources (PBG CN) 8:05am, C$0.05
- Cornerstone OnDemand (CSOD) 4:01pm, $(0.06)
- Hologic (HOLX) 4:01pm, $0.36
- Wuxi PharmaTech (WX) 4:30pm, $0.30
- Tronox (TROX) Post-Mkt, $0.41
- Jacobs Engineering Group (JEC) Post-Mkt, $0.79
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
COPPER – the Doctor remains checked out; Copper gets nothing remotely close to the Obama bounce you are seeing in Gold; Copper -1.1% last wk vs Gold +3.5% tells you all you need to know about the demand (slowing) vs fear (gold) flows. Copper remains in a Bearish Formation in our model, which is why you want to keep your net long exposure to beta on a short leash.
- Brent Oil Snaps Two-Day Gain as Europe Officials Seek Greek Deal
- Bulls Cut Wagers as Prices Rally Most in Two Months: Commodities
- Copper Rises on Stronger-Than-Estimated Growth in China Exports
- Gold Nears Three-Week High on Concern About U.S. Fiscal Cliff
- Soybeans Slide to Lowest Price Since June on Raised USDA Outlook
- Coffee Rebounds on Speculation of Investor Buying; Cocoa Slides
- China Lags U.S. in Gold Holdings, May Raise Total, LBMA Says
- EU Says Hasn’t Started Antitrust Investigation of Metal Storage
- Natural Gas to Become Largest Fuel in U.S. by 2030, IEA Says
- Rebar Climbs After Chinese Exports Expand Most in Five Months
- Water Scarcity Threatening Energy Projects From U.S. to China
- Gold Seen Outperforming as U.S. Fiscal Cliff to Hurt Base Metals
- Goldman Lowers Soybean Price Forecast 12% on Higher U.S. Output
- Metalor Plans Singapore Gold Refinery on Rising Asian Demand
CURRENCIES
EUROPEAN MARKETS
ASIAN MARKETS
JAPAN – if Americans and Europeans want to dress-up and play Japan, that won’t end well; Keynes would not be proud of today’s -0.9% y/y GDP print out of the Japanese; Nikkei down another -0.93% overnight (down -15.4% since global #GrowthSlowing began in March); we remain short the Yen – they have their own #KeynesianCliff, don’t forget.
CHINA – after 5 consecutive down days last wk, we get the river card this morning = Chinese Loan Growth down -14% y/y in OCT; any bottom in China will be a process, not a pt – they don’t subscribe to Krugman/Bernanke policy, evidently (yet).
MIDDLE EAST
The Hedgeye Macro Team