THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – November 12, 2012

 

As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 42 points or 1.15% downside to 1364 and 1.90% upside to 1406.

 

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

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EQUITY SENTIMENT:


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CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 1.35 from 1.36

 MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • Holiday in U.S., no data releases scheduled
  • U.S. Rates Weekly Agenda

GOVERNMENT:

    • Veteran’s Day observed; holiday for most federal workers
    • Washington Week Ahead: Congress in lame-duck session

WHAT TO WATCH

  • U.S. to overtake Saudi Arabia’s oil production by 2020: IEA
  • Natural gas to become largest fuel in U.S. by 2030: IEA
  • EU finance chiefs seek to keep bailout on track after Greek vote
  • Apple settles HTC patent suits in shift away from Jobs’s war plan
  • China’s loans unexpectedly fall as money supply misses forecasts
  • Best Buy said to hire Williams-Sonoma’s Sharon McCollam as CFO
  • Hertz said to divest outlets for FTC approval on Dollar Thrifty
  • “Skyfall” has $87.8m in N. Am sales, record for a Bond film
  • U.S. Weekly Agendas: Finance, Tech, Real Estate, Consumer, Health, Energy, Industrials, Media/Entertainment, Transports
  • Canada Weekly Agendas: Energy, Mining
  • U.S. Fiscal Cliff, China Exports: Week Ahead Nov. 12-17

EARNINGS

    • Soufun (SFUN) 5:45am, $0.46
    • Beazer Homes (BZH) 6am, $(1.11)
    • DR Horton (DHI) 7am, $0.28 - Preview
    • Petrobank Energy & Resources (PBG CN) 8:05am, C$0.05
    • Cornerstone OnDemand (CSOD) 4:01pm, $(0.06)
    • Hologic (HOLX) 4:01pm, $0.36
    • Wuxi PharmaTech (WX) 4:30pm, $0.30
    • Tronox (TROX) Post-Mkt, $0.41
    • Jacobs Engineering Group (JEC) Post-Mkt, $0.79

 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)


COPPER – the Doctor remains checked out; Copper gets nothing remotely close to the Obama bounce you are seeing in Gold; Copper -1.1% last wk vs Gold +3.5% tells you all you need to know about the demand (slowing) vs fear (gold) flows. Copper remains in a Bearish Formation in our model, which is why you want to keep your net long exposure to beta on a short leash.

  • Brent Oil Snaps Two-Day Gain as Europe Officials Seek Greek Deal
  • Bulls Cut Wagers as Prices Rally Most in Two Months: Commodities
  • Copper Rises on Stronger-Than-Estimated Growth in China Exports
  • Gold Nears Three-Week High on Concern About U.S. Fiscal Cliff
  • Soybeans Slide to Lowest Price Since June on Raised USDA Outlook
  • Coffee Rebounds on Speculation of Investor Buying; Cocoa Slides
  • China Lags U.S. in Gold Holdings, May Raise Total, LBMA Says
  • EU Says Hasn’t Started Antitrust Investigation of Metal Storage
  • Natural Gas to Become Largest Fuel in U.S. by 2030, IEA Says
  • Rebar Climbs After Chinese Exports Expand Most in Five Months
  • Water Scarcity Threatening Energy Projects From U.S. to China
  • Gold Seen Outperforming as U.S. Fiscal Cliff to Hurt Base Metals
  • Goldman Lowers Soybean Price Forecast 12% on Higher U.S. Output
  • Metalor Plans Singapore Gold Refinery on Rising Asian Demand

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CURRENCIES


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EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

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ASIAN MARKETS


JAPAN – if Americans and Europeans want to dress-up and play Japan, that won’t end well; Keynes would not be proud of today’s -0.9% y/y GDP print out of the Japanese; Nikkei down another -0.93% overnight (down -15.4% since global #GrowthSlowing began in March); we remain short the Yen – they have their own #KeynesianCliff, don’t forget.

 

CHINA – after 5 consecutive down days last wk, we get the river card this morning = Chinese Loan Growth down -14% y/y in OCT; any bottom in China will be a process, not a pt – they don’t subscribe to Krugman/Bernanke policy, evidently (yet).

 

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MIDDLE EAST


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The Hedgeye Macro Team