Buying On Red

Client Talking Points

Buy 'Em

The old adage of “buy on the low, sell on the high” still rings true these days. At Hedgeye, we’re buyers when the market is tanking and people are forced to sell. Basically, you’re in one of two camps: you’re either holding a lot of cash or you’ve got a buy list with names you’re ready to pick up on market weakness. We’re in the latter camp and today, we’ll be looking to pick up a few new names. We have a process and we stick to it. Right now, our signals are suggesting we buy stocks and sell bonds, so we’re going to go forward and do just that.


Think back to the 2000 bubble when it popped and everything went from triple digits to single digits in a matter of weeks (or delisted entirely). Those who took out their proverbial wallet and started buying on the low did what was right and generated a profit more than likely. It’s the same thing here, courtesy of post-election cynicism that has investors all riled up.

The Name's Bonds

Skyfall and 007 aside, the recent bullish bias in bonds has been quite obvious over the last several weeks with our Growth Slowing theme building day by day. With the 10-year Treasury only offering a yield of 1.61%, we think bonds are overbought here and the time is nearing to sell ‘em like you mean it. 

Asset Allocation


Top Long Ideas

Company Ticker Sector Duration

After a long downward slide, TCB has finally turned the corner. The margin has stabilized after the balance sheet restructuring. Loans are growing thanks to the equipment finance business. Non-interest income is more likely to go up than down going forward, a reversal from the past 18 months. Credit quality has a tailwind from a distressed housing recovery in TCB’s core markets: Minneapolis, Detroit and Chicago. On top of this, the CEO, Bill Cooper, is one of the oldest regional bank CEOs, which raises the probability that the bank will be sold. Expectations are bombed out at this point, so we think it’s time to move from bearish to bullish on TCB.


There is improving visibility on 20%+ EPS growth with P/E of only 11x with better content leading to market share gains. New orders from Canada and IL should be a catalyst. Additionally, many people in the investment community are out in Las Vegas at the annual slot show (G2E) and should hear upbeat presentations by management.



While political and reimbursement risk will remain near-term concerns, on the fundamental side we continue to expect accelerating outpatient growth alongside further strength in pricing as acuity improves thru 1Q13. Flu trends may provide an incremental benefit on the quarter and our expectation for a birth recovery should support patient surgery growth over the intermediate term. Supply costs should remain a source of topline & earnings upside going forward.

Three for the Road


“Becky is grilling a $JCP analyst right now on Sqwawk. Sad to see people defend a name like this.#Sinking_ship.” -@HedgeyeRetail


“Ambition is a poor excuse for not having sense enough to be lazy.” -Edgar Bergen


JC Penney Q3 Same Store Sales fall 26.1%


Some discounting but overall still solid pricing



Various Caribbean and Europe itineraries saw some discounting in the last month, but that was offset by pricing improvements in other regions.  Costa pricing remains steady in Europe while its venture into Asia has garnered solid pricing.  We see pricing strength in the very close-in Caribbean bookings for CCL’s F4Q.  Overall, F1Q pricing for RCL and CCL continue to exhibit weakness but both companies stressed F1Q will be a difficult quarter due to tough comps pre-Costa Concordia.  The good news for F1Q is that Asia Pacific/South America/Mexico account for ~30% of the total itineraries and those regions have had better pricing.  For early F2Q, pricing trends improved for Alaska, Asia Pacific and Mexico while Europe pricing remained status quo in November.      


While the ‘Sandy and Athena’ card could be effectively used by Carnival and Royal Caribbean to mask weak F1Q 2013 guidance, the rest of 2013 remains to be seen until the upcoming Wave Season.  Although there will surely be bumps along the road,  we continue to be encouraged by the pricing stability out of Europe, a relatively low capacity environment and better visibility due to higher booking volumes.


Here are some conclusions from our cruise pricing survey completed this week.  The charts below track pricing trends on a relative basis—i.e. prices relative to that seen on the last earnings call (RCL – Oct 25, CCL –Sept 25).



FQ4 2012

  • Caribbean
    • Pricing was mixed in November.  For the very last-minute bookings, the Carnival brand continues to improve on pricing in spite of Sandy.  RCL brand pricing wasn’t so lucky but given Celebrity’s strength pre-Sandy, the Caribbean may still retain the top spot in yield growth.
  • Europe
    • Most of the Costa itineraries maintained their pricing; discounting in a couple of Spanish itineraries pushed overall pricing a tad lower. 
  • Asia Pacific
    • Not much movement from October to November


FQ1 2013

  • Caribbean
    • Royal and Celebrity pricing both slipped in November.  While modestly negative YoY, Carnival’s pricing improved slightly in November.  
  • Europe
    • Cunard pricing dropped as this brand has had trouble maintaining price in the past few months
  • Asia Pacific
    • Royal and Azamara both saw a tick up in November
  • South America
    • Overall positive, as strong Royal brand pricing offset weakness in Celebrity pricing
  • Mexico
    • Carnival brand remains steady, while Holland improved in November.


FQ2 2013

  • Caribbean
    • RCL brand pricing was unchanged, while Carnival brand pricing was slightly lower.
  • Europe
    • RCL:  Mixed—Prices were raised for the RCL brand while lowered for Celebrity.  The changes, however, are not material.  Celebrity pricing continues to be better than Royal on a YoY basis.
    • CCL:  not much price change on Costa. 
  • Alaska
    • RCL:  Celebrity is lower but trend is improving.
    • CCL:  Mixed—Holland prices are lower YoY but the trend is improving while Princess prices are higher YoY but the trend is declining.
  • Asia Pacific
    • RCL:  While only a handful of itineraries, the trend has been positive.
    • CCL:  Princess is treading along while Costa is nicely higher.
  • South America
    • Fairly stable pricing
  • Mexico
    • Strong pricing in the Carnival brand












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Buy The Flush

“Buying is a profound pleasure.”

-Simone de Beauvoir


You want to buy when people are forced to sell.


If you proactively prepare for these manic market moments: A) you have cash and B) your buy list is locked and loaded. While your shopping list may not be as long as it was 2 months ago, that’s ok. I’m picky about what I buy too.


Back to the Global Macro Grind


In New Haven, CT, rain, wind, or snow, this is what we call The Flush. That’s when you “break” a couple of the moving monkey lines (50 and 200 day simple moving averages) and you get to capitalize on your competition’s emotional selling mistakes.


I’m not saying “buy everything.” Neither am I saying everything is fixed. I am simply saying that everything in markets has a time and price. From a purely quantitative perspective, this morning’s Macro Grind is signaling the best time to sell bonds and buy stocks in 2 months.



  1. BONDS – US Treasuries (10yr immediate-term TRADE oversold at 1.60% yield) and German Bunds are overbought
  2. CURRENCIES – The Euro (EUR/USD) is immediate-term TRADE oversold at $1.27 (still bearish TREND)
  3. STOCKS – The SP500 is holding my long-term TAIL risk line of 1364 support

*Note: I don’t use the moving monkey other than for entertainment purposes.


Also note that the main reason for the word “buy” being in the title of my note is not “China has bottomed.” As we have said, multiple times, China’s bottom will be a process, not a point. The Shanghai Composite was just down for the 5th day in a row (down -16% since growth slowing began, globally, in March). Peculiar looking bottom to me.


As a Chaos Theorist who uses Bayesian conditional probability theory in my decision making process, it’s also critical to note that if we snap my 1364 TAIL risk line today (and close there), I reserve my Canadian and US Constitutional right to change my mind.


But, for now – let’s not stress out about that. We don’t have to. We didn’t buy the Bernanke Top (September 14th). Neither do we have to be up +32% (from here) to get back to break-even buying AAPL at its all-time high.


We’ve earned the opportunity to be patient (picky) here, and take our time.


Top 3 Long Ideas?


1.   International Game Tech (IGT) – Always start with what’s working. In a growth and #EarningsSlowing market like this, you should pay more for the growth that you can find. Visibility matters. Todd Jordan said IGT delivered the bacon last night, beating handily on both the top and bottom line, so buy more (email for Jordan’s note)


2.   Starbucks (SBUX) – Back to the old well works for me, big time – especially now that one of America’s top capitalist innovators (CEO Howard Schultz) looks forward to selling you his Verisimo machine domestically for holiday, and continues to have one of the most visible expansion plans, globally, of a legal drug. Coffee price deflation is a big margin kicker too.


3.   Federal Express (FDX) -  As the world bakes a potential recession into the expectations cake, you want to be buying high-quality (non-mining capex bubble) cyclicals that have already guided down. Especially with our short Oil call working, the margin of safety buying FDX improves (email for Van Sciver’s slide deck presentation)


You’ll also note that my Top 3 Long Ideas are US Equities. That could change if German, Dutch, or Taiwanese Equities flash my immediate-term TRADE oversold signal. They have not yet. The Post Election Flush, is very American.


Whoever bought US stocks at the YTD top needs to be up, a minimum +7.5% (from here), to get back to that September 14th break-even. With the Russell2000 down -8.3% over the same 2 months, you’d have to be up +9% to get back to break-even there. With real money, timing matters. Return of your money is geometric.


This is why we are so focused on earning your respect as the top risk management source you have in your inbox every morning. Buying is a pleasure. We get it. But someone also needs to tell you when to sell. Put another way, as one of my best investors reminded me in NYC yesterday, “Keith, your job isn’t to make me rich – it’s to keep me rich.


Our immediate-term Risk Ranges for Gold, Oil (Brent), US Dollar, EUR/USD, UST 10yr Yield, IGT, SBUX, FDX, and the SP500 are now $1, $105.22-108.44, $80.41-81.12, $1.27-1.29, 1.60-1.72%, $12.69-13.73, $49.27-54.21, $89.21-91.98, and 1, respectively.


Enjoy the weekend and best of luck out there today,



Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer


Buy The Flush - Chart of the Day


Buy The Flush - Virtual Portfolio


IGT addressed some major concerns with a high quality and substantial beat.  Higher FY2013 guidance a nice bonus.



IGT was our favorite name heading into earnings and though we were projecting a beat this quarter and calling for higher 2013 estimates, even we were surprised how good the quarter was.  In fact, this is the first time in recent memory where we’re writing a positive review of IGT’s results.  The momentum looks sustainable as fiscal 2013 guidance was introduced at $1.20-1.30 vs. the Street at $1.18.


FQ4 was a very high quality quarter almost across the board.  EPS of $0.38 beat our estimate by $0.04 and the Street by $0.06.  Moreover, IGT addressed a couple of major issues that had been hurting sentiment:  Interactive performed very well and slot ship share grew substantially.  Maybe the Interactive acquisitions weren’t such a disaster after all?  And as we pointed out in our 10/1/12 note “IGT: IMPROVING 2013 VISIBILITY,” a significant capital deployment shift toward stock buybacks amid an improving fundamental backdrop is a pretty powerful long thesis for a cheap stock.


We will have some more insight after speaking with management today but here are some preliminary takeaways.


The Positives

  • North American product sales and margins were better than we expected
    • IGT shipped over 1.6k more units than we expected.  Most of the upside came from better ship share on replacements.
    • ASPs were significantly higher given the high percentage of Canadian units shipped in the quarter
    • IGT shipped 4,100 units to Canada but only 3,300 of those were VLT units.  Last year, IGT shipped 700 units to Canada in F4Q11.
    • IGT did not recognize any VGT units shipped to IL
    • Based on our calculation, IGT’s ship-share was 42% this quarter vs. 40% last year and 34% in the June Q.  The September Q is usually IGT’s best ship share quarter.
    • Product margins likely benefited from lower discounting and higher volume.  Higher IP payments likely also helped since those carry a 100% margin.
  • Non-box sales were better
    • We initially thought that perhaps IGT’s system business was gaining some traction, but it sounded like most of the bump was due to the settlement payments from BYI.
  • Interactive revenues and margins were a lot better than we expected
    • We thought that with the reorganization at Entraction that IGT’s revenues would take a hit, instead they look like they grew several MM QoQ
    • Double Down revenue was $2MM above our estimate due to bookings per user increasing more than we projected
    • Margins were just plain better
  • Guidance was above the street and the mid-point was higher than our $1.20 estimate
    • Interactive looks like it’s on track to deliver approximately $230MM of revenue at over a 60% gross margin
    • 10% growth in product sales seems achievable and IGT should be able to leverage some of that growth to produce better margins

The Negatives

  • International unit sales fell short of our expectations - though IGT backed away from guidance given earlier in the year of double-digit unit growth in international, during our last conversation with the company, they still insisted that international unit shipments would be up high single digits.  Instead, we saw a 2% YoY decline.
  • While the shipments to Canada were impressive, IGT also saw a huge increase in their receivable, largely as a result of monies due for the Canadian VLTs shipped
  • While ahead of us and the Street, core gaming operations continue at a flattish pace
    • The install base was disappointing, especially in light of the incremental units in Maryland.  IGT’s WAP base saw a fairly large sequential decline.
    • Yields in WAPs were down again YoY


TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – November 09, 2012


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 46 points or 0.98% downside to 1364 and 2.36% upside to 1410



















YIELD CURVE – as of this morning 1.34 decreased from prior day's trading at 1.36 

BONDS – We’ve gone back and forth with clients on this one all yr and maintained that the most obvious bull market remains in bonds, provided that we remain right on both US/Global Growth surprising on the downside; at 1.61% on the 10yr, UST’s finally give us the immediate-term TRADE overbought bond signal here (German and Belgian Bonds overbought as well).



MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 8:30am: Import Price Index M/m, Oct. est. 0.0% (prior 1.1%)
  • 8:30am: WASDE agricultural data
  • 9:55am: U. of Michigan Conf., Nov. est. 83.0 (prior 82.6)
  • 10am: Wholesale Inventories, Sept. est. 0.4% (prior 0.5%)
  • 10am: Fed’s Duke speaks in Chicago
  • 11am: Fed to buy $1b-$1.5b TIPS due 1/15/19-2/15/42
  • 1pm: Baker Hughes rig count


  • SEC Enforcement Director Robert Khuzami speaks in N.Y., 9am
  • National Committee to Preserve Social Security & Medicare holds conference call briefing on proposed benefit cuts, with Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt, 11am
  • IRS holds a public forum on proposed regulations relating to branded prescription drug fee imposed by Affordable Care Act


  • CME Group sued CFTC, challenging cleared-swaps reporting requirements imposed under Dodd-Frank legislation
  • President Obama expected to issue statement today on his plan for spurring economic growth, reducing deficit
  • To hold first post-election news conference early next week
  • NY federal judge to consider arguments today over whether to give Visa, MasterCard’s proposed $7.25b settlement of merchant fee price-fixing case prelim. approval
  • BP, plaintiffs ask judge to approve $7.8b spill accord
  • BofA’s Merrill Lynch unit must face lawsuit by FHFA over mortgage-backed securities sold by the bank
  • Whistle-blower helping U.S. mount $1b fraud lawsuit against BofA accused of fraud by investor in financing co. he co-founded
  • BNY Mellon reached deal to end lawsuit accusing it of defrauding state pension funds through forex transactions
  • China passenger-vehicle sales rose in Oct., beat est.
  • Lockheed’s F-35 jets may cost $1.26b for fixes
  • U.S. Fiscal Cliff, China Exports, Cisco: Week Ahead Nov. 10-17


    • Alliant Energy (LNT) 6:00am, $1.30
    • Enerplus (ERF CN) 6:00am, C$0.06
    • TMX Group (X CN) 6:00am, C$0.74
    • Covidien (COV) 6:00am, $1
    • GMP Capital (GMP CN) 6:00am, $(0.03)
    • JC Penney (JCP) 6:00am, $(0.07)
    • HeartWare (HTWR) 6:30am, $(1.52)
    • Foster Wheeler (FWLT) 6:45am, $0.45
    • Stella-Jones (SJ CN) 7:00am, $1.26
    • GenOn Energy (GEN) 7:00am, $0.03
    • MGIC Investment (MTG) 7:00am, $(0.74)
    • Warner Chilcott (WCRX) 7:00am, $0.79
    • Apollo Global Management (APO) 7:08am, $0.76
    • Laredo Petroleum Holdings (LPI) 7:26am, $0.13
    • EW Scripps (SSP) 7:30am, $0.11
    • Brookfield Asset Management (BAM/A CN) 8:00am, $0.30
    • Telus (T CN) 8:01am, C$1.07
    • Ameren (AEE) 8:15am, $1.41
    • Emera (EMA CN) 9:48am, C$0.36
    • Medivation (MDVN) 4:09pm, $(0.10)


  • Gold Set for Best Week Since January on Stimulus Prospects, ETPs
  • Gold Traders More Bullish After Obama’s Re-Election: Commodities
  • Sugar Declines in London on Brazilian Supplies; Cocoa Rises
  • Gold Demand in India Seen Rebounding on Festivals, Price Decline
  • Copper Heads for Fifth Weekly Decline on European Growth Concern
  • Corn Top Commodity Pick at Morgan Stanley as U.S. Supply Shrinks
  • Rubber Gains, Paring Weekly Loss, on Signs of Economic Recovery
  • Indonesia Palm Oil Group Wants Tax Changes to Counter Malaysia
  • Oil Trades Near Four-Month Low on Demand Concern, Supply Growth
  • Copper Inventories in Shanghai Climb to Highest Since April
  • Canada’s New Corn Belt Attracts Hot Money to Bargain Farmland
  • California Carbon ‘Crippled’ by Buyer Hesitation: Energy Markets
  • China’s High-Cost Aluminum Producers Limit Output Declines
  • Gold Traders More Bullish After Obama’s Win
  • Sugar Fee for Thailand Climbing as Futures Slump to Two-Year Low





EURO – euro $1.27 is ugly, but also immediate-term TRADE oversold; get the EUR/USD right, you get a lot of things big beta right; so today’s currency signal, like our bond signal, says buy stocks that can deliver on the numbers (yes, there are far fewer of those today than 2 months ago). Top 3 Ideas from here: IGT, SBUX, FDX (long).










CHINA – unfortunately, for team “China has bottomed”, China is not the reason for us being more bullish than we have in 2 months this morn – everything has a time and price, but Chinese stocks were down for the 5th consecutive day and remain in a Bearish Formation as China refuses to deliver the Western hope for stimuli.









The Hedgeye Macro Team




Daily Trading Ranges

20 Proprietary Risk Ranges

Daily Trading Ranges is designed to help you understand where you’re buying and selling within the risk range and help you make better sales at the top end of the range and purchases at the low end.