• It's Coming...

    MARKET EDGES

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We’re entering the period where cost comps get easy on a 1 and 2-year basis. Add this to my theme of every other line on the P&L improving on the margin in 2H, and the bullish cocktail gets more powerful.

Front-month cotton futures finished Friday’s session up almost 4% on the NYBOT for the week after data released by the USDA Thursday showed US cotton exports up by 23% for the week ending March 5th from the week prior with a significant increase in Chinese buyers. That data however, is a drop in the bucket after the declines over the past year. We’re literally just entering the period (i.e. today) where compares are getting easy on both a one and two-year basis. And I mean really easy…

All in, let’s not forget that cotton accounts for about $5 in costs for a $100 garment at retail. We can debate up and down where in the supply chain any cost saves would show up – but quite frankly, I really don’t care at this point. We’ve had a 1.5year cost headwind that is starting to ease on the margin. This will help everyone to some degree. It pains me to say this, bc I have zero confidence in management or company strategy, but Gildan would be a disproportionate beneficiary to the reduction in cotton costs given that cotton is 35% of its COGS. If you want to play in that sandbox, then knock yourself out. I’m sticking with the winners like RL, HBI, UA (though it has zero cotton exposure – it competes with those that do), and LULU.

Andrew Barber
Brian McGough