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Starbucks As a Macro Play?

Takeaway: The top-line performance of Starbucks ($SBUX) is highly levered to the strength of the US economy.

Starbucks releases its earnings tomorrow, and our Restaurant sector research team expects the company to report a shortfall versus both sales and earnings estimates for the quarter.

 

As the chart below suggests, Starbucks sales are highly levered to employment and the overall health of the economy. Industrial production is a good proxy for the overall health of the US economy.

 

Starbucks As a Macro Play? - star


Gas Prices and Hurricanes

Takeaway: Here’s a look at how gas prices moved following Hurricane Irene and potential implications post Sandy.

Below is a chart that shows how gasoline prices (both NYMEX RBOB gasoline and the retail price in the Northeast) acted into and out of Hurricane Irene last year.

 

Note the post hurricane spike in prices, like we are seeing today with RBOB, which was followed by a slow, steady decline.

 

Note also that while the trade commodity price can be quite volatile, the consumer doesn’t really see that volatility as prices at the pump generally follow on  a one to two week lag.

 

Irene was a very different event than Sandy, so the effects could be more pronounced this time.

 

Gas Prices and Hurricanes - gas


MGM 3Q REPORT CARD

Takeaway: A Q3 miss and sluggish Q4 RevPAR guidance. While management asserted that trends have picked up in Q4, they said the same thing last Q.

In an effort to evaluate performance and as a follow up to our YouTube, we compare how the quarter measured up to previous management commentary and guidance

 

 

OVERALL

  • WORSE:  EBITDA was worse than expected and we expect Q4 will be no different.  Management did say that trends were better thus far in Q4 but they said the same thing on their Q2 conference call regarding Q3 - and look how that turned out.

LV REVPAR

  • WORSE:  Most Strip properties reported a slight decrease in REVPAR for 3Q which was expected.  However, management had previously indicated that Q3 was an anamoly.  However, MGM says 4Q REVPAR will only be flat to slightly up for 2012, depending on Sandy impact.
  • PREVIOUSLY:  "We also experienced slower than anticipated in the year, for the year convention bookings during that brief period. And based on these current trends, we expect RevPAR in the third quarter will be slightly down."

LV TRENDS

  • WORSE:  August was a rough month, but in the second half of September, business rebounded and that trend has continued into October.  Despite a 1% increase in hold on the Strip, casino revenue only increased 2% YoY. Slot revenue was up 1%. 
  • PREVIOUSLY:  "We've already seen an improvement in customer trends here in the third quarter....So, we think the trends will be moderately up year-over-year for the balance of the year on visitors."

CONVENTION BOOKINGS

  • SAME:  There will be 15% more arena events in 2013 vs 2012. 2014 booking trends are stronger than that seen in 2013.  Convention bookings pace is up 10% YoY for 2013.
  • PREVIOUSLY:  "The softness we experienced during the second quarter for convention bookings in the year, for the year has not impacted long-term bookings. In fact looking out into 2013, we're encouraged to see convention bookings, the pace being up year-over-year and although it's still early, 2014 pace is even stronger."

ROOM RENOVATIONS

  • SAME:  MGM Grand remodel program was completed in September.  Bellagio's Spa Tower remodel will be finished in mid-December. 
  • PREVIOUSLY:  "Our MGM Grand room remodel continues to progress with approximately 3,300 rooms completed. The project is on schedule for a September completion date. In the fall, we will begin the remodel of the Bellagio Spa Tower rooms, which will cost us approximately $40 million and is included in our full-year capital budget. The room remodel will begin here in August and be completed right before the holidays later on this year. We will begin remodeling the rooms of THE hotel in mid 2013. And through the Light Group, a subsidiary of Morgans, we will be introducing three new restaurants and a cutting-edge new nightclub, injecting some fresh energy into Mandalay Bay."

CAPEX 2012 TARGET

  • SAME:  MGM continues to expect $350-360 million in FY 2012 capex for the US - $80 million for MGM Macau and $80 million for MGM Cotai, which includes $56 million paid for the land concession contract.
  • PREVIOUSLY:  "We continue to expect our CapEx for the full year to be approximately $350 million." 

LEVEL TWO GAMING EXPANSION

  • BETTER:  At the end of September, MGM completed their VIP gaming expansion project on Level Two and opened the business just before the government week holiday. During the holiday period, our VIP business generated several record single-day volumes with the addition of the space.
  • PREVIOUSLY:  "On the gaming front, we are working to complete our Level Two expansion. This project will deliver a high-quality product to house over 40 VIP gaming tables. The project is expected to be completed in early fourth quarter."

COST MANAGEMENT

  • BETTER:  FTEs fell 2% in 3Q.  Stock comp, D&A, and interest expense all came in better than expected (chart below)
  • PREVIOUSLY:  "So, I think you saw that we're getting decent flow through at some of our properties, especially if you kind of figure out the hold on it. Our FTEs are flat. We're managing our expenses in other ways where we can, and we're very, very focused on driving free cash."

 

MGM 3Q REPORT CARD - ASCA2


Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.28%
  • SHORT SIGNALS 78.51%

H 3Q CONF CALL NOTES

Not a high quality quarter

 


"In the short-term, we are seeing some headwinds, including slower growth of near-term group booking activity in North America and lower revenue growth in a number of international markets due to individual market dynamics. We are confident in our ability to manage through potential economic and marketplace volatility and we continue to maintain margin and cost discipline."

 

- Mark S. Hoplamazian, president and chief executive officer of Hyatt Hotels Corporation

 

 

CONF CALL NOTES

  • Their recently acquired hotels are performing ahead of expectations
  • Mexico acquisition is performing well; on track to begin renovations next year
  • 5 large hotels that they renovated are doing well with the exception of Atlanta
  • SG&A was lower than they anticipated
  • Impact of Jewish Holidays:  about 75bps on owned and leased hotels
  • Got property and tax refunds last year that helped margins by 100bps on owned and leased
  • Weakness in International: 
    • New York:  timing of the Jewish holidays significantly impacted them during the last 2 weeks of the Q.  RevPAR growth was 75% lower than the first 10 weeks.
    • Atlanta had weak city-wide demand
    • International:  Tough comps in Seoul & Zurich.  Supply additions in Baku. 
  • Sold interests in 2 full service Seattle hotels for $15MM in cash and a reduction of $50MM of debt. resulted in a $28MM gain which will be deferred bc they will continue to manage the property.  Sold at TTM EBITDA 13.7x or 6.2% cap rate
  • Mumbia poor results and challenging Argentina market also impacted JV results
  • Some international markets are softening: India
  • Successfully realigned the company in 3Q. Realignment done on October 1. Expect to realize $15MM of savings in 2012 vs. prior estimates. Some are due to staff changes and some are one time. 
  • Sale of select service hotels at 7.2% cap rate or 11.7 trailing EBITDA. Will continue to manage these hotels over time
  • Adjusted EBITDA impact by sales: $11MM in 2012 or $15MM on FY basis
  • New deal in India: rebranding of 5 hotels in India: will double their footprint in India
  • 2 factors to consider on their earnings profile: 4Q will have carry over of same issues as 4Q.  Through 3Q of this year, they benefited from renovations completed last year.  Estimate that this lifted EBITDA in 3Q by $15MM. Properties that they sold have a $4MM quarterly EBITDA impact.  So there is a $19MM benefit to 3Q vs. 4Q.
  • Sandy will impact 4Q. Also have calender comparisons in 4Q
  • Market dynamics that impacted 3Q will impact 4Q. Renovations will also impact 4Q results.  
  • They will have several big renovations underway in 2013 that will also impact their results. 

 

Q&A

  • Headwinds that are Hyatt vs. industry:
    • Baku supply issues will be ongoing. Other markets - Zurich and Seoul are not ongoing.
    • NA has a lot of group business. Saw a slow down in the group pace growth there. Will be more impacted than industry at large.
    • Renovations: fee impact on large managed hotels under renovation
    • Hurricane will impact everyone
  • Optimism is based on:
    • Pipeline expansion
    • Their brands are doing really well 
    • Select service is really helping their corporate business relationships
  • New York performance for 2013 given the supply growth:
    • Have 4 hotels in NY now.  Have 4 under development that will be opened over the next few years.
    • Long-term outlook is very positive but there may be short-term absorption issues
  • SG&A declines: 
    • Benefited from re-alignment efforts
    • Expect flattish SG&A growth in 2013
  • Group business trends and slow down:
    • Definitely saw a slowdown in the rate of growth QoQ.  Some of this is due to election uncertainty.
    • Government business was particularly weak.  Partly demand and part of that was the decision to shift away from government business (yield mgmt)
    • Short-term bookings pace is still dominated by corporations.  Total production in the Q was up 12% due to associations booking into 2013.  Longer-term association business is good but shorter-term corporate has slowed. 
    • Rate growth continues to be positive across all segments
  • Weak owned/leased margins in the Q
    • Intenrational margins challenge: 50bps impact
    • Lighter F&B - especially in larger banquets
    • Difficult banquet comps YoY
    • Property tax refund benefited them by 100bps last year
    • Need mid-single digit RevPAR to maintain margin growth given inflation and rate/occupancy mix
  • 5 renovation properties contributed 250bps of owned/leased RevPAR
  • Lodgeworks portfolio contributed $15MM
  • Jewish holidays: Had a very strong F&B Q in NY in 3Q11.  Banquet biz in NY was down 8% and represents 75% of their F&B biz.  Retail outlet F&B was up 10%- mix impacted them as well
  • Sandy impact:
    • One hotel is shutdown and one is partially shut
    • Other hotels are running at high occupancy
    • Group and banquet is what is really going to be impacted along the East Coast (NY, Boston, DC) 
  • 157 dangling crane - same building of where the Park Hyatt is going to be located. They are not involved in the construction activity.  It's their partner. There may be delays in the completion of the hotel but it's too early to know.
  • RevPAR is expected to be weaker in China due to the election.  Expect corporate demand to return to normal levels post election. India is weaker due to the economy. 
  • Projects in India and Minneapolis progress aren't included in the pipeline update
  • Realignment expenses are expected to be minimal in 4Q and non in 2013. 
  • 16% of their room base is franchised. They are early in their franchised business. It's mostly on their Select Service. 75% of their pipeline is International and almost all of that is managed vs. franchised.
  • G&A savings detail: $7MM is recurring and $8MM is one time. Have not reduced any expenses around their development efforts
    • Recurring: Found opportunities to consolidate operational areas and find efficiencies. Also reallocated resources to key areas. Will have more holistic regional teams that will be able to make faster decisions and have more agility. 
    • One-time:  Underwent a 3rd party review globally. Had open positions that they no longer needed to fill. 
  • All of their buybacks were affected in the market
  • Actively working with customers who have canceled because of Sandy to reschedule them in the future which may involve waving cancellation fees 
  • Transaction with Summit fits into their strategy of expanding their Select Service ownership of hotels by strong corporates. Highly focused on expanding corporate ownership of their properties.

 

HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE RELEASE

  • RevPAR stats:
    • Comparable owned and leased hotel RevPAR: +4.6% (6.3% excluding the effect of currency)
    • Comparable North American full service hotel RevPAR: +4.2% 
    • Comparable North American select service hotel RevPAR: +6.0%
    • Comparable international hotel RevPAR: +0.8% (5.2% excluding the effect of currency)
  • “During the quarter, Adjusted EBITDA increased by over 14% as we benefited from the recent
    acquisitions of hotels in the U.S. and Mexico, as well as from the results of some of our key owned hotels that were renovated last year. North American transient rate growth also benefited overall results"
  • 5 properties opened in 3Q12, one hotel was removed
  • Company repurchased 911,244 shares of Class A common stock at an average price of $38.78 per share, for an aggregate purchase price of approximately $35 million. The Company has
    approximately $131 million remaining under its current share repurchase authorization.
  • "We expect to utilize our strong balance sheet and capital base to opportunistically expand our presence and increase earnings in the years ahead. We recently sold several hotel properties at attractive pricing, while retaining long-term management agreements, as part of our asset recycling strategy."
  • "Pro rata share of unconsolidated hospitality ventures Adjusted EBITDA decreased 18.2% in the third quarter of 2012 as a result of the sale of two joint venture interests, negative foreign exchange and weaker performance in two international markets"
  • "RevPAR for comparable owned and leased hotels was negatively impacted by the timing of holidays in
    September as compared to the same period in 2011. In addition, specific market conditions negatively
    impacted several international owned hotels."
  • "RevPAR for comparable North American full service hotels was negatively impacted by the timing of
    holidays in September as well as weaker performance in Washington, D.C. compared to the same period in 2011. Additionally, renovations at managed properties in Washington, D.C. and Dallas negatively impacted results"
  • "Group rooms revenue at comparable North American full service hotels increased 0.6%... Group room nights decreased 2.6% and group ADR increased 3.3%"
  • "Transient rooms revenue at comparable North American full service hotels increased 5.8... Transient room nights increased 0.3% and transient ADR increased 5.5%"
  • "As of September 30, 2012 this effort was underscored by executed management or
    franchise contracts for more than 175 hotels (or more than 39,000 rooms) across all brands. The executed contracts represent potential entry into several new countries and expansion into many new markets or markets in which the Company is under-represented. Approximately 75% of the future expansion is expected to be located outside North America."
  • Capex: $53MM ($21MM maintenance, enhancements to existing properties: $30MM, Investment in new properties: $2MM)
  • During the quarter, the Company sold its interest in two joint venture full service hotels for approximately
    $52 million. In addition, as a result of the sales, the Company's share of unconsolidated hospitality venture indebtedness was reduced by approximately $51 million. The Company will continue to manage these hotels under long-term management agreements.
  • Subsequent to the end of the quarter, the Company closed on the sale of eight select service hotels with an aggregate of 1,043 rooms for approximately $87 million. The Company will continue to manage these
    hotels under long-term management agreements.
  • Debt: $1.2BN; Cash: $450MM and $540MM of short term investments
  • 2012 Guidance: 
    • Adjusted SG&A:~$305 million
    • Capital expenditures: ~ $340 million
    • Depreciation and amortization: ~$355 million 
    • Interest expense: ~$70 million
    • The Company expects to open over 20 hotels in 2012

MGM 3Q CONF CALL NOTES

Takeaway: We remain negative on a Strip recovery

Weaker than expected quarter - even after the negative revisions

 


"Our third quarter operating results are reflective of a challenging consumer environment, but we had some bright spots with strong results from MGM Grand Las Vegas and The Mirage and record third quarters from MGM China and CityCenter. Meanwhile, early fourth quarter trends are improving at our domestic resorts and forward convention booking pace is showing growth in 2013 and is further accelerating into 2014."

 

-  Jim Murren, Chairman and CEO of MGM Resorts International

 

CONF CALL NOTES

  • Results in Vegas were in-line with their expectations.
  • They had tough comps in Las Vegas but have indications of a recovery.  August was very rugged but end of September was better and that carried into October. 
  • They are controlling costs where they can, with FTE's down 2% in LV
  • In MD, they continue to support their efforts to support Question 7
  • Toronto represents an exciting opportunity for MGM and they intend to participate
  • 50% of their database have opted to become M Life members
  • Expanding their strategic M-Life partners.  Announced RCL addition yesterday
  • My Vegas, their social game, have 350k average monthly users and many of these users have redeemed points at their LV properties
  • Bellagio low hold was 13% this Q, offset by high hold at other luxury strip properties
  • Maintained rate but lost occupancy in Vegas.  Had a 2% YoY decrease in convention mix this Q.  Mostly impacted Mandalay Bay.
  • F&B, retail, and entertainment was impacted by lower occupancies, remodels, and transitions, but they expect that to improve as remodels are completed
  • MD election is next week, so 4Q corporate expense will be higher - mid $60MM range before stock comp expense
  • Capex for FY 2012: $350-360 for US, ($80MM at MGM Macau and $80MM for MGM Cotai)
  • Stock comp: 10-11MM in 4Q
  • 230-235 for D&A in 4Q
  • Interest expense: gross interest 285MM in 4Q
  • City Center details:
    • Net table up 4% and 3% increase in slot volume
    • Elvis ended its run on August 31st and Zarkana is opening on November 9th - think that it will help their business when it opens
    • Crystals - executed lease for 8.3k of luxury space
  • MGM Macau:
    • EBITDA was negatively impacted by the low hold on their in-house business and RC program 
    • Completed Level Two VIP space
    • Main floor table win was up 27%. Had improved yields on mass floor by 300bps
    • Slot win increased 44%.  50% margin in the Q, up 50bps YoY
    • Paid $56MM for Cotai land contract in October.  Refining and enhancing their design and getting their construction team together.
      • $2.5BN (30-36 months of construction); up to 500 tables, 2500 slots, 1600 rooms
  • Going into the 4Q, improved LV trends are continuing:
    • Zarkana
    • Blue Man group (Monte Carlo mid Nov)
    • All rooms back online at MGM Grand (completed late Sept)
    • Bellagio Spa Tower remodel done in mid-Dec
    • Seeing a somewhat better RevPAR environment and expect that 4Q RevPAR will be flat to slightly up (depending on Sandy impact)
    • Convention bookings are pacing up 10% in 2013 and even better for 2014

 

Q&A

  • MGM Macau hold impact:
    • RevShare had good hold - 87% of their business
    • Bad run on the RC operators: mid-teens MM's impact caused margin impact
  • They are open to JV partnerships on new projects. They will know on MD next week. If they win, they still need to win an RFP.  Same thing with MA.  If they win in Toronto, they will seek a capital partner. 
  • LV:  Internationally, they were down 12% on win... they got hit by 7 customers.  October is good for them. China visitation is up slightly, SE Asia is going well, South America and Japan are down.
  • Macau:  VIP business has been steady. Mass market still strong. Probably future growth, particularly VIP, will go in-line with the rate of China GDP.
  • Convention:  Sept/Oct--pretty good shape.  Group bookings were strong in 3Q and in 2013, 2014, and 2015.  
  • LV visitation vs spend per visitor:  fragile customer out there; overall, saw improvement in underlying metrics (REVPOR and visitation); more reliant on leisure customer (which is a lower spending customer); going forward, they see an increase in international visitors due to improvements at McCarran airport.
  • Case/Shiller housing prices and slot handle: 97% R^2 correlation
  • Sandy impact:  lost 4,000 room nights, about $1MM lost in revenue
  • Labor costs in Macau may increase (5.4% of total costs in Macau)
  • Net hold impact on STRIP EBITDA:  1% higher YoY in overall hold; net net positive $10 million impact to EBITDA
  • 91% for the year in the year booked for 2013 vs 80% last year at the same time.  Aria is almost sold out.  Better shape today than in 2Q.
  • Sees $100MM in future interest savings given good control of debt
  • Confident that as long as approval process goes through, they will get enough labor for Cotai
  • Post China election, resurgence in VIP? 
    • Unsure when VIP will ramp up.  Believes VIP is going through a consolidation phase. Expect a 8-10% long-term growth rate for VIP

 

HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE RELEASE

  • "Consolidated casino revenue increased 4%, representing a 7% increase at MGM China and a 2% increase at the Company's wholly owned domestic resorts"
  • "The overall table games hold percentage in the third quarter of 2012 was 20.4% compared to 19.5% for the prior year third quarter. 
    • Table games hold at the Bellagio was significantly below normal but was offset by other Las Vegas Strip resorts." 
  • "Slots revenue increased 1% compared to the prior year quarter."
  • "Rooms revenue decreased 3% with Las Vegas Strip REVPAR down 2%."

  • MGM China EBITDA of $152MM, including a $5MM branding fee
    • Net revenue: $665MM
    • Mass table volume increased 10% and slot volume grew 37%
    • VIP turnover fell 5%; hold was 3%
  • "In October 2012, MGM China and MGM Grand Paradise, as co-borrowers, entered into an amended and restated credit facility agreement which consists of $550 million of term loans and a $1.45 billion revolving credit facility due October 2017.  The interest rate on the facility will fluctuate based on HIBOR plus a margin, set at 2.5% for the first six months and ranging between 1.75% and 2.5% thereafter based on MGM China's leverage ratio. The credit facility will be used for general corporate purposes and for the development of the proposed Cotai development."
  • CC EBITDA of $59MM and net revenue of $263MM
    • Aria table hold was 29.3% vs. 25.5% in 3Q11. Estimated benefit from high hold was $8MM on Adjusted EBITDA
    • Aria's occupancy was 88% and ADR of $192
    • "CityCenter recorded approximately $36 million for a residential impairment charge related to the Mandarin Oriental and $32 million for accrued costs related to the future demolition of the Harmon within "Property transactions, net.""
  • "Corporate expense increased by approximately $19 million during the current quarter, largely as a result of approximately $17 million of costs associated with the ongoing referendum in Maryland and development efforts in Massachusetts and Toronto."
  • Cash at 9/30/12: $2.4BN (including $936MM at MGM China)
  • Debt at 9/30/12: $13.9BN, "including $1.3 billion of borrowings outstanding under its senior credit facility and $539 million related to the MGM China credit facility."
    • In September, the Company issued $1.0 billion of 6.75% senior notes due 2020, for net proceeds to the Company of approximately $986 million.
  • "We have opportunistically accessed the capital markets enabling us to extend maturities at lower borrowing rates. Our most recent senior notes issuance was done at the lowest interest rate we have achieved since 2006.  We remain focused on executing additional transactions to further reduce our interest expense and improve free cash flow"

ASCA 3Q CONF CALL NOTES

Solid management delivers solid quarter in soft environment

 

 

"The 2012 third quarter was one of Ameristar's most profitable quarters ever despite a slight decline in net revenues and Adjusted EBITDA,"

 

- Gordon Kanofsky, Ameristar's Chief Executive Officer

 

 

CONF CALL NOTES

  • Had table game hold challenges in East Chicago.  Dialed back on the ineffective promotions introduced in 3Q.  Half of the decrease in EBITDA was due to low hold, and the other half was due to the promotional campaign.
  • The Cline Avenue bridge is being rebuilt over the next 2-3 years at no cost to ASCA.  It will be a toll road.
  • Kansas City and East Chicago attributed $3.5MM of the EBITDA decline in the quarter. 
  • Lake Charles project will allow for another hotel tower down the road if demand warrants it
  • Do not expect TX to legalize gaming in the near future. Gaming initiatives have never gotten out of the TX legislature. Texas legislature will meet again in 2013, even if it passes both houses, it would need to go to a vote - which would likely occur during an election year which isn't until 2016, and then it would take several more years to hand out any licenses.
  • Lake Charles will help them diversify dependence on Missouri, provide a 15% ROI, 
  • 4Q12 Outlook: 
    • Expect that 4Q will continue to be challenging with higher competition at KC, weakness in discretionary consumer spending, and closures at the 1-70 bridge near St. Charles
    • Stock comp: $3.3-4.3 (Q4); $16-17 (2012)
    • Tax rate: 40-42% rate for the 4Q and 27-28% for the year
    • $17MM on construction at Lake Charles in 4Q; capital spend for 4Q: $31.5-36.5MM
    • Net interest expense in Q4: $29MM
    • Corporate expense: ~$13MM
    • 4Q Weighted average share count: 33.5MM

 

Q&A

  • East Chicago: Des Plaines has ramped up but other properties in the area increased promotional expenditures to compete
  • Springfield: There is talk that one or more proposals will go to the state level. There is some disconnect on Springfield making some decisions ahead of the state. Thinks that Jan/Feb will be when the city will negotiate agreements with host communities and then that would go to a city vote. Then, once they get a host community license, it will go up to the state.
  • Unclear whether they need financing in place or just show the ability to finance. 
  • Lapping the Kansas City property new competition:  when it laps, ASCA thinks that they will see a similar environment to what happened in St Louis. Doesn't think that the promotional activity will be too high - so it should be rational.
  • IL:  Government has indicated some interest in expansion
  • The 3Q was somewhat soft and the numbers reflect that.  Consumer cost of living likely increased more than consumer income increased. 
  • Springfield: If competitive conditions change, they will take that into account and will stick to their 15% hurdle   

 

HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE RELEASE

  • "Our scale and diversification helped mitigate the impact from additional competition faced in two of our markets....our efficient operating model absorbed a $1.1 million year-over-year increase in development expenses in the third quarter, which were related to our Louisiana and Massachusetts projects."
  • "We will continue our pursuit of North American acquisitions and development projects that surpass our ROI hurdles and are within our risk tolerance, as well as other means to maximize long-term shareholder value, including debt reduction, dividends and stock repurchases."
  • "St. Charles overcame floor disruption from a slot system upgrade and street construction near our property. Both projects were completed in the third quarter of 2012. Maintenance on the I-70 bridge near our St. Charles property will commence in earnest in early November and is expected to negatively impact results for approximately one year, during which four of the bridge's 10 lanes will be closed."
  • "Jackpot's construction disruption related to a road repaving project on Highway 93 between Twin Falls, Idaho and Jackpot that concluded late in the third quarter and a hotel renovation affecting 21% of the Jackpot properties' rooms that was completed in late July 2012"
  • "New competition continued to impact Ameristar Kansas City"
  • "East Chicago's third quarter net revenues declined by $4.6 million (8.5%) year over year mostly as a result of low table games hold and increased competition in the Chicagoland market. A promotional program intended to counter East Chicago's new competitive environment contributed to an increase of $0.6 million (0.8%) in consolidated third quarter promotional allowances over the prior-year third quarter."
  • "Construction of Ameristar Casino Resort Spa Lake Charles began on July 20, 2012 and is progressing on schedule. The resort is being developed on a leased 243-acre site and will include a casino with approximately 1,600 slot machines and 60 table games, a hotel with approximately 700 guest rooms (including 70 suites). The cost of the project (including the purchase price) is expected to be between $560 million to $580 million, excluding capitalized interest and pre-opening expenses. We anticipate funding the project through a combination of cash from operations and borrowings under our revolving credit facility. We expect to open the resort in the third quarter of 2014."
  • "On October 23, 2012, we announced specific plans for our proposal to develop Ameristar Casino Resort Spa Springfield if we are awarded the license. Our plan includes a 150,000-square-foot casino featuring approximately 3,300 slot machines and 110 table games, including a poker room. Ameristar Springfield is expected to include a 500-room luxury hotel with 50 suites. We estimate the initial development cost of Ameristar Springfield would be approximately $910 million, which includes capitalized interest and pre-opening expenses and a license fee payment to the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. Ameristar's proposed budget also includes the $16.9 million paid earlier in 2012 to acquire the site and $58 million for planned traffic improvements to create easy access to the resort and alleviate current traffic problems in the area."
    • "The City of Springfield is currently conducting a process to select one or more casino proposals to be submitted to the gaming commission that is currently scheduled for completion during the first half of 2013. The gaming commission anticipates making decisions for the awarding of licenses in the first quarter of 2014"
  • Cash: $116.3MM; Debt: $1.9BN; Leverage: 5.01x
  • Capex: $34.4MM (including $15.2MM for Lake Charles)
  • "On Sept. 15, 2011, our Board of Directors approved the repurchase of up to $75 million of Ameristar common stock through Sept. 30, 2014. During the third quarter of 2012, we repurchased approximately 0.7 million shares of common stock at a total cost of approximately $11.1 million under the stock repurchase program. To date, we have repurchased approximately 1.0 million shares of common stock, or 3% of our outstanding stock, under the program at an average price of $16.67 per share, for a total cost of $16.7 million."
  • FY 12 Outlook: 
    • D&A: $106.6MM to $107.6MM
    • Interest, net of capitalized interest: $114.4MM to $115.4MM (includes $5.5MM non-cash interest)
    • Capex: $147-152MM, including $70MM for maintenance, "$31.9MM related to Lake Charles and construction costs, $29.8 million recorded for the fair value of a Lake Charles intangible asset and $16.9 million for the January 2012 Springfield, Mass. land purchase." 
    • Non-cash stock comp: $16-17MM
    • Corporate expense (ex. stock comp): $50.5-51.5MM

 


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