This note was originally published October 26, 2012 at 11:09 in Macro
POSITIONS: Long Utilities (XLU), Short Industrials (XLI)
Our top Hedgeye Global Macro Theme for Q4 of #EarningsSlowing continues to play out at an accelerating rate. Half way through Earnings Season, we see no reason to back off that fundamental research view.
From a quantitative perspective (different from the research view), the bearish TREND signal remains. Across our core risk management durations, here are the lines that matter to me most:
- Intermediate-term TREND resistance = 1419
- Immediate-term TRADE support = 1391
- Long-term TAIL support = 1354
In other words, now that the SP500 is slicing through its April 2012 highs (and there’s no Fed put), long-term TAIL support is back in play.
On growth, 1/3 of this morning’s GDP print came from a Government Spending (contributing +0.71% out of nowhere, after 8 consecutive quarters of declines!). That’s going to matter as the legacy media figures it out.
Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer