Client Talking Points


There are plenty of mini-bubbles out there to take note of and recognize. Everything from shipbuilding to capital expenditures in industrials; all you have to do is look for the clues to help guide you. Mining spending is another one that’s about to pop. Companies like Caterpillar, etc. are realizing that #GrowthSlowing is very much a part of earnings season, like it or not. 

Asset Allocation


Top Long Ideas

Company Ticker Sector Duration

Remains our top long in casual dining as new sales layers (pizza) and strong-performing remodels (~5% comps) should maintain sales momentum. The company is continuing to enhance returns for shareholders through share buybacks . The stock trades at a discount to DIN (7.7x vs 9.3x EV/EBITDA) and in line with the group at 7.3x.


Emissions regulations in the US focusing on greenhouse gases should end the disruptive pre-buy cycle and allow PCAR to improve margins. Improved capacity utilization, truck fleet aging, and less volatile used truck prices all should support higher long-run profitability. In the near-term, Paccar may benefit from engine certification issues at Navistar, allowing it to gain market share. Longer-term, Paccar enjos a strong position in a structurally advantaged industry and an attractive valuation.


While political and reimbursement risk will remain near-term concerns, on the fundamental side we continue to expect accelerating outpatient growth alongside further strength in pricing as acuity improves thru 1Q13. Flu trends may provide an incremental benefit on the quarter and our expectation for a birth recovery should support patient surgery growth over the intermediate term. Supply costs should remain a source of topline & earnings upside going forward.

Three for the Road


“Norway Tells Largest Sovereign Wealth Fund to Buy on Dip” -@JohnLothian


“The love of truth lies at the root of much humor.” -Robertson Davies


US jobless claims come in at 369,000.

CRI: Get in Now

Takeaway: No change to our thesis. We expect this to play out in Q4 and into 1H F13.

CRI beat and we’ll give them that. We went into the quarter and outlined in our CRI Black Book on 10/15 that we didn’t expect a miss due to an inflection in margins (i.e. product costs turn favorable), but that we expect the reality of our thesis – lack of product differentiation resulting in pricing/margin pressure – to play out more visibly in Q4 and into 1H F13. There is no change to our call. If the stock is up today on Q3 numbers, now is the time to short it. (please contact  if you are interested in seeing the full details of our call and CRI Black Book)

  • Wholesale numbers came in significantly lighter than expected offset in part by International results with stronger profitability driven by higher gross margins accounting for stronger EPS.
  • Notably, CRI’s Q4 outlook calls for sales over 200bps higher than consensus, but EPS a penny lighter. This suggests significant margin weakness relative to expectations. If this is indeed related to sell-in at Carter’s wholesale (i.e. JCP) it suggests sales are coming at substantially lower margin. It also begs the question of what happens following sell-in when accounts start pressing CRI on margin at the same time.
  • In addition to Q3 wholesale sales turning negative for the first time in 9 quarters, retail comps remain a concern. Both Carter’s and OshKosh decelerated meaningfully on a 2yr basis despite a more favorable setup and comps get much tougher over the next 2 quarters. Growth at retail continues to be driven almost entirely by lower productivity new store growth and e-commerce. Given the lack of product differentiation across channel, we expect this impact on owned-retail to continue.
  • Inventories were good though the sales/inventory spread turned down sharply in quadrant 1 reflecting the full integration of Bonnie Togs. Excluding BT, inventories were up +11% last quarter so the -3% inventory growth this quarter is sequentially positive.
  • Given the mixed Q4 guidance, our primary focus on the call will be 1) how much of the incremental lift in Q4 sales is lower margin wholesale business, and 2) where are AUR trends shaking out now that the company has gone dark on disclosure just at its outlook would suggest that pricing is under fire.

CRI: Get in Now - CRI S


Kentucky Fried Politics

This note was originally published at 8am on October 11, 2012 for Hedgeye subscribers.

“The American people do not think the system is fair, or on the level.”

-Joe Biden


Forget #BigBird. The world’s tweeters will shift to whose political chicken gets fried tonight in Danville, Kentucky. It’s a good thing there’s no bubble in partisan US politics.


In terms of political ironies, the aforementioned quote is a beauty. It’s how MSNBC’s Chris Hayes kicks off Chapter 3, “Moral Hazards”, in the most recent book I have been reviewing, “Twilight of The Elites.”


While I’d love to debate Hayes and/or my boy Biden on their respective concepts of “fairness”, here’s something Hayes wrote that I completely agree with: “ … we cannot have a just society that applies the principle of accountability to the powerless and the principle of forgiveness to the powerful. This is the America in which we currently reside” (page 102).


Back to the Global Macro Grind


With the SP500 down for the 4th consecutive day, we got longer yesterday, for a trade. To be clear TRADEs (3 weeks or less) in our model are not to be confused with TRENDs (3 months or more). TRADEs get overbought and oversold. TRENDs (like #EarningsSlowing) last longer.


Some people don’t like the whole Duration Agnostic thing. Some people love it. I don’t wake-up every morning looking for love or loathing. I focus on doing what I can do to make our risk management process more dynamic and repeatable, across durations.


From an immediate-term TRADE perspective, at $630 AAPL was evidently oversold on Tuesday. What was oversold on Wednesday?


1.   Tech (XLK) – First, understand that this S&P Sector ETF is 1/5 AAPL, so buying XLK yesterday gets me more of what I really want - in a slowing growth scenario, I want to buy the cheap growth that I can find.  


2.   Utilities (XLU) – If I am going to buy what’s getting smoked in October (Tech), I also want some asymmetry on the long side in owning something that works if Tech doesn’t. Utilities are one of the top performing S&P Sectors since The Bernanke Top.


3.   Gold (GLD)Hedgeye Playbook long, for a trade, here as the US Dollar Index moves to immediate-term TRADE overbought. Remember, get the US Dollar right, and you’ll get a lot of other things right.


Yes, one of our intermediate-term TREND Themes for Q4 is Bubble #3 (Commodities), but that doesn’t mean I can’t fully embrace understanding what people do with bubbles (they chase them when they are green), and trade the risk of the position both ways.


Gold’s long-term TAIL risk (3 years or less in duration) is much more daunting than its intermediate-term TREND risk. Why?

  1. TAIL risk = lower long-term highs from the $1900/oz zone (2011 all-time highs) make a bubble look like a bubble; look backwards
  2. TREND support = Gold has recently proven to test its YTD highs established in February ($1794); that keeps mo mo bulls in it
  3. TRADE range = $1758-1792; you don’t have to be bullish or bearish to understand that; it’s just math

Agreed. It’s a lot harder to keep countervailing thoughts, across durations, in your head than being perma – but that’s precisely why I think about risk that way. The market doesn’t care about your politics or your positioning.


So, if I sell Gold at $1792, it will probably be because it’s immediate-term TRADE overbought, the USD is immediate-term TRADE oversold, and Romney’s momentum in the polls keeps firing Bernanke in play (no Bernanke is not good for Gold).


Back to Tech…


I’m not a techie, but I have built a #WallSt2.0 firm that’s been able to monetize Twitter. So you can just call me social. Risk managing Tech (XLK) is not for the faint of heart, but where it closed yesterday illustrates the Duration Mismatch of price momentum quite well:

  1. Tech (XLK) = down -2.5% for the month of October is the worst performing Sector of the 9 in the S&P Sector Model we track
  2. Tech (XLK) = up +18.1% YTD is the 3rd best performing Sector in the S&P for 2012
  3. Tech (XLK) = has a heavy weight in AAPL (20.73% of the ETF) and AAPL is up +58.25% YTD

So, if you want to get Tech (XLK) right, you probably have to get AAPL right. That’s why timing and factoring your position risk matters.


Now some people pay a lot of attention to what is up for the YTD. I personally couldn’t care less. My net wealth (and most people who don’t measure it on Old Wall’s calendar bonus schedule) compounds or is drawn-down, daily.


If AAPL is up +58.25% YTD, but down 10% in a straight line (from The Bernanke Top in September) from where your money manager bought it for you, you need to be up +11.1% (from the down 10%) to get your money back to break-even. That’s not Kentucky Fried Politics. That’s just risk management math.


My immediate-term risk ranges for Gold, Oil (Brent), US Dollar, EUR/USD, UST 10yr Yield, Tech (XLK), and the SP500 are now $1758-1792, $112.54-115.05, $79.43-80.03, $1.28-1.30, 1.68-1.76%, $30.02-30.69, and 1429-1448, respectively.


Best of luck out there today,



Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer


Kentucky Fried Politics - Chart of the Day


Kentucky Fried Politics - Virtual Portfolio

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“You can boil down what we're thinking about 2013 to a short statement, and that goes both for economic environment and sales, and that statement is steady-as-she-goes, not much change from 2012.”

– Michael DeWalt, Caterpillar, 10/22/12


This morning, Hedgeye ran a proprietary P/E screen to identify a couple of bargains.  JDS Uniphase (JDSU) is trading at only 3x its 2000 EPS.  Lennar (LEN) is at only 4.5x its 2005 EPS.  Multiples were much higher when those earnings were reported, so today these names are on a big sale.   OK…probably not.  However, those “bargains” highlight the problem with using the peak margins and a simplistic framework to value companies.


The Industrials sector is loaded with mini-bubbles.  Capital equipment goes through replacement cycles, driving sales and margins to very high levels only to have them drop-off following the boom.  Our favorite cycle is shipbuilding.  After World War II, war tonnage was converted to commercial use.  Ships only last for about 30 years, so there was a replacement boom in the mid-1970s.  Tonnage deliveries were nearly three times higher in 1975, at the peak of the boom, than they were in 1980, after the bust.  The industry just had another replacement cycle with deliveries peaking in 2011. The group looks like a promising short today and should be a great long around 2035.    Mark your calendar.


We joke that mining is the world’s second oldest profession and that there is a reason the iron-age was called the iron-age.  Mining is a highly mature industry with long-term cyclical growth slightly below global GDP growth.  It should not boom.  When it does, you know something interesting is going on. 


Mining capital spending is an obvious bubble.  For example, global iron ore output went from ~1 billion tons in 2005 to ~3 billion tons last year.  Capital spending above depreciation at the eight largest miners went from about $10 billion in 2004 to $56 billion in 2011.  And 2004 was a fantastic year for mining capital spending.


Today, Caterpillar is best defined as a manufacturer of mining and resource-related capital equipment.  Among its largest customers are BHP, Rio Tinto, and Vale.   Typical of companies caught up in a boom, CAT has made overpriced acquisitions and added excess capacity to meet peak demand, in our view.  Investors who hold CAT through the down-cycle may end up paying for management’s investment errors in addition to their own.  Buying CAT today is similar to buying Lennar in 2005 or JDSU in 2000.  The peak $9.20/share or so that CAT will likely earn in 2012 may prove just as irrelevant for valuation as any other bubble-driven profit.


The Hedgeye Industrials team hates P/Es.  Extreme profit cyclicality leaves multiples useless in the Industrials sector. We prefer to build DCFs to estimate (wide) valuation ranges.  We forecast reasonable longer-term growth rates, margins, capital needs, and other factors, making assumptions explicit.  November 5th, we are presenting on the Express & Courier Services industry, including Fedex.  Fedex may grow at 2% or 6%, but it isn’t going to grow at 15% in the long-run.  Similarly, global iron ore production is not going to keep tripling every 5 years.  To value CAT by extrapolating recent trends in mining capital investment would be to assume the surface of the earth ends up covered in ferrous rocks.  A normal peak multiple applied to recent profits implicitly makes that assumption.


To note that there is a bubble in many commodities is different from explaining why.  The narratives that drive bubbles tend to be very persuasive and contain much truth.  The internet will revolutionize commerce.  Check.  Home prices rise over time and will be supported by the government.  Check.  A rising middle class in the developing world will need more appliances and cars.  Check.  Narratives allow investors to feel better about applying absurdly simplistic valuation ratios to companies serving highly complex markets. 


We’ll throw out a narrative to explain the commodity bubble to allow CAT short sellers to feel better.  We suspect that the commodity bubble has been driven by world’s second largest economy pegging its currency to the world’s largest economy while the world’s largest economy engages in highly simulative and largely experimental monetary policy.  The peg contributes to inflation in China, which drives savers in China to protect real wealth by investing in property and other hard assets.  Maybe check. Maybe not.


Narratives aside, our view on CAT is straight-forward.  Don’t be the investor who buys a cyclical at a multi-decade peak in margins.  We may well come back to CAT when it hits our proprietary P/E screen in a few years.


Our immediate-term risk ranges for Gold, Oil (Brent), US Dollar, EUR/USD, UST 10yr Yield, and the SP500 are now $1, $106.63-110.71, $79.69-80.25, $1.29-1.31, 1.71-1.89%, and 1, respectively.


Jay Van Sciver, CFA

Managing Director Industrials


Steady-As-She-Goes? - aa. JAY EL


Steady-As-She-Goes? - aa. Real Time


The Macau Metro Monitor, October 25, 2012




By October 2013, all slot machines at the two Singapore casinos must display the odds of a punter hitting winning combinations.  The Casino Regulatory Authority (CRA) implemented this requirement earlier this month to highlight how unlikely it is to end up with such combinations - in a move to deter people from over-exuberant gambling.  So far, about 20% of the 5,000 slot machines in the casinos have complied with the rule.



The Sy group has formally entered into an agreement with casino billionaires James Packer and Lawrence Ho for a US$1-billion gaming venture in Manila.  Belle Corp said it and its wholly owned subsidiary, PremiumLeisure and Amusement Inc., signed a cooperation agreement with MPEL for the development of a casino and entertainment resort within the 120-hectare Entertainment City.  The cooperation agreement makes Belle a co-licensee and owner of the resort project with Melco, while Melco will be co-licensee and operator of all of the project's facilities.  The deal will also bring in an additional investment from Melco of "no more than $580 million over the course of the project." 



Hundreds of Japanese tourists are cancelling trips to Macau.  Tourism agents quoted by Jornal Tribuna de Macau said several Japanese tourists have cancelled their trips.  Information requests about Macau have also dropped by half.  Industry insiders said tourists from Japan are scared of coming here after the violent protests in the mainland against Tokyo following the territorial dispute with Beijing over the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands.  Visitor arrivals from Japan decreased by 0.9% YoY in September, to 35,300, official data shows.



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