WYNN 3Q REPORT CARD

Takeaway: Solid quarter and positive forward commentary about Macau.

In an effort to evaluate performance and as a follow up to our YouTube, we compare how the quarter measured up to previous management commentary and guidance

 

 

OVERALL

  • SLIGHTLY BETTER:  Management seemed a little more upbeat about Macau, and Las Vegas had a surprisingly strong quarter in terms of volumes and revenues.

SPECIAL DIVIDEND

  • BETTER: The special dividend of $8/share is a nice surprise given that some analysts were expecting it post-election.  Also, WYNN will increase its regular quarterly dividend from $0.50/share to $1.00/share starting in 2013.
  • PREVIOUSLY: [Update on special dividend, annual dividend or share buybacks?] "I can't resolve that question in absolute terms. I can tell you that that is the order of business before the Board when we get together and it comes up at this time. The Board was naturally waiting to see how the financing would go."

JUNKET COMMISSIONS

  • SAME:  WYNN has given out as much promotional allowances as they can.  WYNN will not risk the bottom line.  
  • PREVIOUSLY:  
    • "We have been able to hold the percentage we pay the junket operators to 40% plus 3% or so for complementaries, and our competitors are about 5 points ahead of us in terms of what they give the junket operators."
    • "The price war has extended into the mass end of slot markets....we always focus on how much junket commission that's given out, but we are actually giving out a lot more incentives now in slots and mass market to also buy back business."

MACAU CREDIT AND BUSINESS CLIMATE

  • BETTER:  Continued its prudent philosophy.  As a result, collections haven't suffered. The feeling is things have stabilized.  Junkets are giving more credit recently.
  • PREVIOUSLY:  "We are very conservative about credit....we don't use a rolling program.....it's 15 day credit on the 15th of the month."

2H 2012 COTAI CAPEX

  • SAME:  75% of the Capex will be spent in mid-2014 to mid-2016.  WYNN Cotai is aiming for a Chinese New Year opening in 2016. 
  • PREVIOUSLY:  "~$150 million on foundations over the next nine months to 12 months."

MACAU OPEX

  • SLIGHTLY BETTER:  Opex came in around $1.2 million a day in 3Q.  This is a pretty steady run rate.
  • PREVIOUSLY:  "We're running between $1.3 million and $1.4 million per day before we take into account commissions or bad debt or anything like that. I expect that to continue. But, there will be continuous cost pressures, primarily driven through the pressures on payroll."

NEW JUNKET ROOM

  • SAME:  New junket room will open at the 1st week in November; one of the major Chinese operators will move in.
  • PREVIOUSLY:  "We built a new junket room that's going to be open for Christmas. Another retail space -  a small one for jewelry at the entrance of the casino."

SECTOR SPOTLIGHT | Live Q&A with Healthcare Analyst Tom Tobin Today at 2:30PM ET

Join us for this edition of Sector Spotlight with Healthcare analyst Tom Tobin and Healthcare Policy analyst Emily Evans.

read more

Ouchy!! Wall Street Consensus Hit By Epic Short Squeeze

In the latest example of what not to do with your portfolio, we have Wall Street consensus positioning...

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Bulls Leading the People

Investors rejoiced as centrist Emmanuel Macron edged out far-right Marine Le Pen in France's election day voting. European equities were up as much as 4.7% on the news.

read more

McCullough: ‘This Crazy Stat Drives Stock Market Bears Nuts’

If you’re short the stock market today, and your boss asks why is the Nasdaq at an all-time high, here’s the only honest answer: So far, Nasdaq company earnings are up 46% year-over-year.

read more

Who's Right? The Stock Market or the Bond Market?

"As I see it, bonds look like they have further to fall, while stocks look tenuous at these levels," writes Peter Atwater, founder of Financial Insyghts.

read more

Poll of the Day: If You Could Have Lunch with One Fed Chair...

What do you think? Cast your vote. Let us know.

read more

Are Millennials Actually Lazy, Narcissists? An Interview with Neil Howe (Part 2)

An interview with Neil Howe on why Boomers and Xers get it all wrong.

read more

6 Charts: The French Election, Nasdaq All-Time Highs & An Earnings Scorecard

We've been telling investors for some time that global growth is picking up, get long stocks.

read more

Another French Revolution?

"Don't be complacent," writes Hedgeye Managing Director Neil Howe. "Tectonic shifts are underway in France. Is there the prospect of the new Sixth Republic? C'est vraiment possible."

read more

Cartoon of the Day: The Trend is Your Friend

"All of the key trending macro data suggests the U.S. economy is accelerating," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough says.

read more

A Sneak Peek At Hedgeye's 2017 GDP Estimates

Here's an inside look at our GDP estimates versus Wall Street consensus.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Green Thumb

So far, 64 of 498 companies in the S&P 500 have reported aggregate sales and earnings growth of 6.1% and 16.8% respectively.

read more