MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR : HOUISNG AND EARNINGS PUSH US & EU CDS LOWER

Takeaway: Bank swaps and sovereign swaps moved in tandem, tightening considerably last week while Chinese steel continues to show signs of weakness.

Key Takeaways

 

* American bank default swaps have tightened significantly. The improvement seems to be the result of ongoing improvement in housing as well as reasonably strong earnings. 

 

* European bank CDS also tightened across the board last week with only 1 out of the 37 reference entities we track widening. This is a bit surprising considering that the EU Summit failed to produce any tangible solutions once again. 

 

* Sovereign swaps around the globe moved sharply lower, mirroring the move in bank swaps. 

 

* Steel prices in China have generally been trending lower since August of last year. Prices have fallen 13% over the last six months but are up 1.3% MoM.

 

* The MCDX, our preferred measure of municipal default risk, tightened WoW

 

* Our Macro team’s quantitative setup in the XLF shows 1.6% upside to TRADE resistance and 1.5% downside to TRADE support.

 

Financial Risk Monitor Summary  

• Short-term(WoW): Positive / 5 of 12 improved / 1 out of 12 worsened / 7 of 12 unchanged  

• Intermediate-term(WoW): Positive / 7 of 12 improved / 1 out of 12 worsened / 5 of 12 unchanged

• Long-term(WoW): Positive / 7 of 12 improved / 2 out of 12 worsened / 4 of 12 unchanged

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR : HOUISNG AND EARNINGS PUSH US & EU CDS LOWER - Summary

 

1. American Financial CDS –  A clean sweep. Swaps tightened for all the American financial reference entities we track. Considering the mixed reaction to earnings in the space, it's a notable divergence. 

Tightened the most WoW: AXP, MS, BAC

Tightened the least WoW: WFC, COF, GS

Tightened the most MoM: RDN, HIG, MS

Widened the most MoM: MBI, WFC, LNC

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR : HOUISNG AND EARNINGS PUSH US & EU CDS LOWER - America

 

2. European Financial CDS –  Europe was not as good, only 36 of 37 reference entities improved. Spanish banks showed some of the sharpest improvement.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR : HOUISNG AND EARNINGS PUSH US & EU CDS LOWER - Europe

 

3. Asian Financial CDS –  Asia took its cues from the U.S. and EU. Bank swaps in China and India were tighter WoW. Japanese banks were also generally tighter.  


MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR : HOUISNG AND EARNINGS PUSH US & EU CDS LOWER - Asia

 

4. Sovereign CDS – Sovereign default swaps around the world moved sharply lower, with an average decline of 22.8%. Notable call outs include German sovereign swaps, which tightened by 30.4% (-15 bps to 34 bps) and Spanish sovereign swaps, which tightened by 81 bps to 273 bps.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR : HOUISNG AND EARNINGS PUSH US & EU CDS LOWER - Sov Table

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR : HOUISNG AND EARNINGS PUSH US & EU CDS LOWER - Sov1

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR : HOUISNG AND EARNINGS PUSH US & EU CDS LOWER - Sov 2

 

5. High Yield (YTM) Monitor – High Yield rates fell 13.7 bps last week, ending the week at 6.52% versus 6.66% the prior week.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR : HOUISNG AND EARNINGS PUSH US & EU CDS LOWER - Hy

6. Leveraged Loan Index Monitor – The Leveraged Loan Index rose 0.7 points last week, ending at 1735.53.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR : HOUISNG AND EARNINGS PUSH US & EU CDS LOWER - LLI

 

7. TED Spread Monitor – The TED spread fell 1.2 bps last week, ending the week at 22.3 bps this week versus last week’s print of 23.5 bps.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR : HOUISNG AND EARNINGS PUSH US & EU CDS LOWER - Ted

 

8. Journal of Commerce Commodity Price Index – The JOC index fell -1.0 points, ending the week at -0.65 versus +0.4 the prior week.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR : HOUISNG AND EARNINGS PUSH US & EU CDS LOWER - joc

 

9. Euribor-OIS spread – The Euribor-OIS spread tightened by 1 bp to 11 bps. The Euribor-OIS spread (the difference between the euro interbank lending rate and overnight indexed swaps) measures bank counterparty risk in the Eurozone. The OIS is analogous to the effective Fed Funds rate in the United States.  Banks lending at the OIS do not swap principal, so counterparty risk in the OIS is minimal.  By contrast, the Euribor rate is the rate offered for unsecured interbank lending.  Thus, the spread between the two isolates counterparty risk. 

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR : HOUISNG AND EARNINGS PUSH US & EU CDS LOWER - Euribor OIS

 

10. ECB Liquidity Recourse to the Deposit Facility – The amounts drawn under this facility have been steadily declining since July 2012. The ECB Liquidity Recourse to the Deposit Facility measures banks’ overnight deposits with the ECB.  Taken in conjunction with excess reserves, the ECB deposit facility measures excess liquidity in the Euro banking system.  An increase in this metric shows that banks are borrowing from the ECB.  In other words, the deposit facility measures one element of the ECB response to the crisis.  

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR : HOUISNG AND EARNINGS PUSH US & EU CDS LOWER - ECB

 

11. Markit MCDX Index Monitor – Spreads tightened 6 bps, ending the week at 132 bps versus 138 bps  in the prior week. The Markit MCDX is a measure of municipal credit default swaps. We believe this index is a useful indicator of pressure in state and local governments. Markit publishes index values daily on six 5-year tenor baskets including 50 reference entities each. Each basket includes a diversified pool of revenue and GO bonds from a broad array of states. We track the 16-V1. 

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR : HOUISNG AND EARNINGS PUSH US & EU CDS LOWER - MCDX

 

12. Chinese Steel – Steel prices in China fell 1.6% last week, or 61 yuan/ton, to 3745 yuan/ton. Over the last six months, Chinese construction steel prices have fallen ~13%.This index is reflecting significant weakness in China's construction market.Chinese steel rebar prices have been generally moving lower since August of last year. We use Chinese steel rebar prices to gauge Chinese construction activity, and, by extension, the health of the Chinese economy.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR : HOUISNG AND EARNINGS PUSH US & EU CDS LOWER - CHIS

 

13. 2-10 Spread – Last week the 2-10 spread widened to 147 bps, 7 bps wider than a week ago. We track the 2-10 spread as an indicator of bank margin pressure.  

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR : HOUISNG AND EARNINGS PUSH US & EU CDS LOWER - 2 10

 

14. XLF Macro Quantitative Setup – Our Macro team’s quantitative setup in the XLF shows 1.6% upside to TRADE resistance and 1.5% downside to TRADE support. At the moment, the XLF is both positive TRADE and TREND.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR : HOUISNG AND EARNINGS PUSH US & EU CDS LOWER - XLF

 

Margin Debt - August: +0.73 standard deviations 

NYSE Margin debt rose to $287 billion in August from $278 billion in July. It's interesting to note that this most recent print brings the two series back into convergence. We like to to look at margin debt levels as a broad contrarian sentiment indicator. For reference, our approach is to look at margin debt levels in standard deviation terms over the period 1. Our analysis finds that when margin debt gets to +1.5 standard deviations or greater, as it did in April of 2011, it has historically been a signal of significant risk in the equity market. The preceding two instances were followed by the equity market losing roughly half its value over the following 24-36 months. Overall this setup represents a long-term headwind for the market. One limitation of this series is that it is reported on a lag. The chart shows data through August. 

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR : HOUISNG AND EARNINGS PUSH US & EU CDS LOWER - Margin Debt

 

Joshua Steiner, CFA

 

Robert Belsky

 

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