Similar to LVS, we are expecting an EBITDA and EPS beat.



We estimate that Wynn Resorts will report $1,306MM of net revenue and $376MM of EBITDA, in-line and 2% ahead of the Street, respectively.  We think the catalysts are lining up generally positive for the Macau operators although we would caution that Wynn’s share is very low month- to-date in October and while that is mostly due to hold, we would expect continued pressure on volume share both in Mass and VIP.



Q2 Detail:


We estimate that Wynn Macau will produce $927MM of net revenue and $291MM of EBITDA (2% above consensus)

  • Net casino revenue of $869MM
    • $606MM of net VIP win
      • Assuming 10% direct play, RC volume of $27BN
        • Down 14% YoY—the 2nd YoY decline since 2Q09; and
        • Down 11% QoQ—the 2nd consecutive QoQ decline since opening
      • 3.2% hold
      • Rebate rate of 96bps or 30% on a rev share basis
      • The property's historical hold rate since opening has been 2.94%.  If Wynn held at its historical hold rate in 3Q, net revenues and EBITDA would be $49MM and $12MM lower, respectively.
    • Mass win of $208MM, +7% YoY increase
    • Slot win of $54MM, down 15% YoY and 14% QoQ
  • $59MM of net non-gaming revenue
    • Room revenue:  $29MM
    • F&B:  $24MM
    • Retail & other:  $50MM
    • Promotional allowances:  $45MM
  • $516MM of variable expenses
    • $443MM of taxes
    • $65MM of gaming promoter expense assuming a blended commission rate 42.7%
    • Recorded non-gaming expenses of $19MM
  • Fixed expenses of $102MM, flat QoQ and down 3% YoY


We’re projecting $379MM of net revenue and $108MM of EBITDA for Wynn Las Vegas (8% above consensus)

  • Net casino revenue of $152MM and operating margin of $67MM
    • Table win of $146MM
      • 10% increase in table drop to $634MM
      • 23% hold rate
    • $40MM of slot win
      • 1% drop in handle to $667MM
      • 6.0% win rate
    • $33MM discounts & rebates or 18% of gross casino win
    • Casino expenses of $73MM, up 3% YoY
  • $273MM of non-gaming revenue
    • Room revenue of $91MM
      • RevPAR:  $206 (ADR: $245/ Occ: 85%)
      • CostPAR:  $85.33
    • F&B:  $123MM revenues at a 41% operating margin
    • Entertainment, retail, & other:  $59MM at a 38% operating margin
    • $46MM of promotional spending or 30% of casino revenue
  • SG&A:  $52MM, up 3% YoY


Other assumptions:

  • Corporate expense:  $23MM
  • D&A:  $94MM
  • Stock comp:  $6MM
  • Net interest expense:  $74MM

Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

"Most people who are making a ton of money right now are focused on growth companies seeing accelerations," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look. "That’s what happens in Quad 1."

read more

People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

read more

UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

read more

Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

read more

Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

read more

An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

read more

Got Process? Zero Hedge Sells Fear, Not Truth

Fear sells. Always has. Look no further than Zero Hedge.

read more

REPLAY: Review of $EXAS Earnings Call (A Hedgeye Best Idea Long)

Our Healthcare Team made a monster call to be long EXAS - hear their updated thoughts.

read more

Capital Brief: 5 Things to Watch Right Now In Washington

Here's a quick look at some key issues investors should keep an eye on from Hedgeye's JT Taylor and our team of Washington Policy analysts in D.C.

read more

Premium insight

[UNLOCKED] Today's Daily Trading Ranges

“If I could only have one thing of the many things we have it would be my daily ranges." Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough said recently.

read more

We'll Say It Again: Leave Your Politics Out of Your Portfolio

If your politics dictates your portfolio positioning, the Democrats and #NeverTrump crowd out there have had a hell of a week.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: 'Biggest Tax Cut Ever'

President Donald Trump's economic team unveiled what he called last week, "the biggest tax cut we’ve ever had.” Before you get too excited about that hang on a sec. "Trump Tax Reform ain’t gettin’ done anytime soon," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look.

read more