WYNN: MACAU TO DRIVE A DECENT Q3

Similar to LVS, we are expecting an EBITDA and EPS beat.

 

 

We estimate that Wynn Resorts will report $1,306MM of net revenue and $376MM of EBITDA, in-line and 2% ahead of the Street, respectively.  We think the catalysts are lining up generally positive for the Macau operators although we would caution that Wynn’s share is very low month- to-date in October and while that is mostly due to hold, we would expect continued pressure on volume share both in Mass and VIP.

 

 

Q2 Detail:

 

We estimate that Wynn Macau will produce $927MM of net revenue and $291MM of EBITDA (2% above consensus)

  • Net casino revenue of $869MM
    • $606MM of net VIP win
      • Assuming 10% direct play, RC volume of $27BN
        • Down 14% YoY—the 2nd YoY decline since 2Q09; and
        • Down 11% QoQ—the 2nd consecutive QoQ decline since opening
      • 3.2% hold
      • Rebate rate of 96bps or 30% on a rev share basis
      • The property's historical hold rate since opening has been 2.94%.  If Wynn held at its historical hold rate in 3Q, net revenues and EBITDA would be $49MM and $12MM lower, respectively.
    • Mass win of $208MM, +7% YoY increase
    • Slot win of $54MM, down 15% YoY and 14% QoQ
  • $59MM of net non-gaming revenue
    • Room revenue:  $29MM
    • F&B:  $24MM
    • Retail & other:  $50MM
    • Promotional allowances:  $45MM
  • $516MM of variable expenses
    • $443MM of taxes
    • $65MM of gaming promoter expense assuming a blended commission rate 42.7%
    • Recorded non-gaming expenses of $19MM
  • Fixed expenses of $102MM, flat QoQ and down 3% YoY

 

We’re projecting $379MM of net revenue and $108MM of EBITDA for Wynn Las Vegas (8% above consensus)

  • Net casino revenue of $152MM and operating margin of $67MM
    • Table win of $146MM
      • 10% increase in table drop to $634MM
      • 23% hold rate
    • $40MM of slot win
      • 1% drop in handle to $667MM
      • 6.0% win rate
    • $33MM discounts & rebates or 18% of gross casino win
    • Casino expenses of $73MM, up 3% YoY
  • $273MM of non-gaming revenue
    • Room revenue of $91MM
      • RevPAR:  $206 (ADR: $245/ Occ: 85%)
      • CostPAR:  $85.33
    • F&B:  $123MM revenues at a 41% operating margin
    • Entertainment, retail, & other:  $59MM at a 38% operating margin
    • $46MM of promotional spending or 30% of casino revenue
  • SG&A:  $52MM, up 3% YoY

 

Other assumptions:

  • Corporate expense:  $23MM
  • D&A:  $94MM
  • Stock comp:  $6MM
  • Net interest expense:  $74MM

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