Similar to LVS, we are expecting an EBITDA and EPS beat.
We estimate that Wynn Resorts will report $1,306MM of net revenue and $376MM of EBITDA, in-line and 2% ahead of the Street, respectively. We think the catalysts are lining up generally positive for the Macau operators although we would caution that Wynn’s share is very low month- to-date in October and while that is mostly due to hold, we would expect continued pressure on volume share both in Mass and VIP.
Q2 Detail:
We estimate that Wynn Macau will produce $927MM of net revenue and $291MM of EBITDA (2% above consensus)
- Net casino revenue of $869MM
- $606MM of net VIP win
- Assuming 10% direct play, RC volume of $27BN
- Down 14% YoY—the 2nd YoY decline since 2Q09; and
- Down 11% QoQ—the 2nd consecutive QoQ decline since opening
- Assuming 10% direct play, RC volume of $27BN
- 3.2% hold
- Rebate rate of 96bps or 30% on a rev share basis
- The property's historical hold rate since opening has been 2.94%. If Wynn held at its historical hold rate in 3Q, net revenues and EBITDA would be $49MM and $12MM lower, respectively.
- $606MM of net VIP win
- Mass win of $208MM, +7% YoY increase
- Slot win of $54MM, down 15% YoY and 14% QoQ
- $59MM of net non-gaming revenue
- Room revenue: $29MM
- F&B: $24MM
- Retail & other: $50MM
- Promotional allowances: $45MM
- $516MM of variable expenses
- $443MM of taxes
- $65MM of gaming promoter expense assuming a blended commission rate 42.7%
- Recorded non-gaming expenses of $19MM
- Fixed expenses of $102MM, flat QoQ and down 3% YoY
We’re projecting $379MM of net revenue and $108MM of EBITDA for Wynn Las Vegas (8% above consensus)
- Net casino revenue of $152MM and operating margin of $67MM
- Table win of $146MM
- 10% increase in table drop to $634MM
- 23% hold rate
- Table win of $146MM
- $40MM of slot win
- 1% drop in handle to $667MM
- 6.0% win rate
- $33MM discounts & rebates or 18% of gross casino win
- Casino expenses of $73MM, up 3% YoY
- $273MM of non-gaming revenue
- Room revenue of $91MM
- RevPAR: $206 (ADR: $245/ Occ: 85%)
- CostPAR: $85.33
- Room revenue of $91MM
- F&B: $123MM revenues at a 41% operating margin
- Entertainment, retail, & other: $59MM at a 38% operating margin
- $46MM of promotional spending or 30% of casino revenue
- SG&A: $52MM, up 3% YoY
Other assumptions:
- Corporate expense: $23MM
- D&A: $94MM
- Stock comp: $6MM
- Net interest expense: $74MM