TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – October 15, 2012
As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 26 points or -0.67% downside to 1419 and 1.15% upside to 1445.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
- ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 10/12 NYSE -830
- Decrease versus the prior day’s trading of 909
- VOLUME: on 10/12 NYSE 624.50
- Decrease versus prior day’s trading of -3.43%
- VIX: as of 10/12 was at 16.14
- Increase versus most recent day’s trading of 3.53%
- Year-to-date decrease of -31.03%
- SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 10/12 closed at 2.13
- Up from the day prior at 1.72
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
BONDS – US Treasuries don’t care much for the up EuroStoxx, up SP Futures thing; 10yr yield hasn’t budged a beep this morning after falling back to 1.66% from 1.74% last week. Lower-highs US stocks as bonds make higher-lows. #GrowthSlowing, globally.
- TED SPREAD: as of this morning 23.25
- 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.10%
- 10-Year: as of this morning 1.67%
- Increase from prior day’s trading of 1.66%
- YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.41
- Up from prior day’s trading at 1.40
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates)
- 8am: Fed’s Lacker at NABE in New York
- 8:30am: Empire Manufacturing, Oct., est. -4.8 (prior -10.41)
- 8:30am: Advance Retail Sales, Sept., est. 0.8% (prior 0.9%)
- 8:30am: Retail Sales Ex-Autos, Sept., est. 0.6% (prior 0.8%)
- 10am: Business Inventories, Aug., est. 0.5% (prior 0.8%)
- 11am: Fed to buy $4.25b-$5.25b notes due 10/31/2018-8/15/2020
- 11:30am: U.S. to sell $32b 3-month bills, $28b 6-month bills
- 12:45pm: Fed’s Dudley in Virginia on economy
- 1:10pm: Fed’s Bullard in St. Louis on economy
- 8:30pm: Fed’s Williams in San Francisco on economy
GOVERNMENT:
- House, Senate not in session
- Congressional candidates, political action committees file quarterly report to Federal Election Commission, as will Romney Victory, the joint fundraising committee for GOP nominee Mitt Romney, Republican National Committee, state parties
- U.S. Chamber of Commerce unveils International Index of Energy Security Risk on global markets, 9am
WHAT TO WATCH:
- Softbank agreed to pay $20.1b to buy a 70% stake in Sprint
- U.S. retail sales probably rose in Sept. for a 3rd month
- Greece’s 10-yr yield falls to lowest since debt restructuring
- China’s exports, money supply grew more than est. in Sept.
- Japan said to plan $2.5b Renesas bid as early as Nov.
- Bank of Israel Governor Stanley Fischer said the world is “awfully close” to a recession
- “Taken 2” top movie for 2nd weekend with sales of $22.5m
- Douglas Holding receives $1.9b bid from Advent-controlled companies
- Apple appeals Tokyo court ruling on Samsung patent case
- Lifetech Scientific Investor sells 19% stake for HK361m
- Credit card monthly charge-offs, delinquencies to be released
- Verizon begins defense of $9.5b trial on Idearc spinoff
- Nike, RadioShack, Anheuser-Busch Stand by Armstrong: FT
EARNINGS:
- Citigroup (C) 8am, $0.97 - Preview
- Gannett (GCI) 8:30am, $0.53
- Charles Schwab (SCHW) 8:45am, $0.17
- Packaging Corp. of America (PKG) 5pm, $0.56
- Valmont Industries (VMI) 5:30pm, $2.05
- Brown & Brown (BRO) After-mkt, $0.35
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
- Oil Trades Near Four-Day Low Amid Global Economic Growth Concern
- Bullish Wagers Drop to Eight-Week Low Before Rally: Commodities
- Copper Erases Decline as Buyers in Europe Take Advantage of Drop
- European Naphtha Cargoes Shipped to Asia Set to Rise in October
- Gold Declines With Commodities; Silver Falls to a One-Month Low
- Soybeans Drop Below $15 for First Time Since July as Crops Slide
- Cocoa Falls Before U.S., Europe Processing Data; Sugar Retreats
- LME’s O’Hegarty Says a Lot of Regulation Happening in ‘Hurry’
- U.S. Plunge in Gas Drilling Means $1 Billion Lost Profit: Energy
- China Boosts Soybean Imports as Reduced Supplies Spur Purchases
- Qatar Is Favorable to Glencore-Xstrata Deal, Prime Minister Says
- Potash Inventory Up 50% in Brazil, 33% in India Through August
- Silver to Extend Drop Before Rally Resumes: Technical Analysis
- Tropical Storm Rafael Nears Hurricane Strength in Atlantic
- LME’s Martin Abbott Expects Record Trading Volume This Year
CURRENCIES
EUROPEAN MARKETS
GERMANY – snapped TRADE line support of 7316 last wk and is struggling to get back above that this morn despite the no-volume rally in European Equities to start the wk; EuroStoxx600 was -1.7% last wk and we’ve seen these Monday rallies in Europe fade in recent weeks, so watching levels here will be important.
ASIAN MARKETS
KOSPI – continued to struggle overnight, down another –0.4% and at 1925 is now decisively below our 1976 TRADE line of resistance; like Tech (XLK), which is down -3.5% in the last mth, this is a new growth scare for what was working.
MIDDLE EAST
The Hedgeye Macro Team