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TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – October 12, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 20 points or -0.48% downside to 1426 and 0.92% upside to 1446. 

                                            

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

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THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 9

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 10/11 NYSE 909.00
    • Increase versus the prior day’s trading of -737
  • VOLUME: on 10/11 NYSE 646.68
    • Increase versus prior day’s trading of 9.45%
  • VIX:  as of 10/11 was at 15.59
    • Decrease versus most recent day’s trading of -4.30%
    • Year-to-date decrease of -33.38%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 10/11 closed at 1.72
    • Up from the day prior at 1.67

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning 24.36
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.10%
  • 10-Year: as of this morning 1.69%
    • Increase from prior day’s trading of 1.67%
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.42
    • Up from prior day’s trading at 1.41

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates)

  • 8:30am: Producer Price Index M/m, Sept. est. 0.8%
  • 8:30am: PPI Ex Food & Energy M/m, Sept. est. 0.2%
  • 9:55am: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Oct. preliminary, est. 78.0 (prior 78.3)
  • 11am: Fed to buy $1.75n-$2.25b notes due 2/15/2036-8/15/2020
  • 12:35pm: Fed’s Lacker speaks in Charlottesville, Va.
  • 1pm: Baker Hughes rig count

GOVERNMENT:

    • Dodd-Frank rules take effect that require companies to begin tallying derivatives trades to determine whether they cross $8b threshold for being designated swap dealers subject to heightened capital and collateral standards; CFTC also will require companies to tally foreign-exchange swaps, forwards
    • Interior Secretary Ken Salazar, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., make announcement on renewable energy and public lands, 1:30pm
    • Education Secretary Duncan answers Twitter questions about federal student aid, tools available to help students, families make informed decisions about financing higher education, 4pm

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Telefonica agreed to sell its Atento call-center division to Bain Capital, with enterprise value of EU1.04b, including debt
  • WellPoint reorganizes in interim CEO Cannon’s 1st major move
  • TPG withdraws A$694m offer for Billabong as talks end
  • Softbank shares fell as operator said it’s in talks to invest in Sprint Nextel, said to be seeking control
  • S&P put Softbank’s long-term outlook on creditwatch negative, citing announcement on Sprint Nextel talks
  • Kraft said to be putting its Breakstone’s sour cream, cottage cheese business up for sale, may be worth ~$400m
  • Gary Gensler, chairman of CFTC, said he’d be willing to serve 2nd term as head of the agency
  • Carlyle given another month to consider making Chemring bid
  • Family that controls Champion Technologies said to be seeking sale of the closely held company
  • Nasdaq, setting up derivatives trading system in London, will seek more than 10% market share in its first year of operation
  • JPMorgan expects investment-banking fees from U.S.-listed Chinese cos. to surge this year as they step up acquisitions
  • Pfizer appealed judge’s order that CEO Read testify in person at federal trial on claims against anti-smoking drug Chantix
  • Samsung Electronics won bid to continue selling newest Galaxy Nexus smartphone in U.S. during appeal
  • Apollo Global, Oaktree Capital said to have rejected Nine Entertainment’s debt restructuring proposal, countered by offering funds managed by Goldman a smaller stake in the co.
  • Honeywell expects to boost aerospace sales in Asia by 7% a year, double the pace in U.S.
  • VMware said partnership with Cisco will change after its $1.26b acquisition of Nicira
  • Answers Corp., which lost bid to buy About.com from New York Times in Aug., has other plans to grow through acquisitions
  • Morgan Stanley execs said to have told partner in Rhinebridge structured investment vehicle that mortgages underlying SIV may cause it to fail
  • Best Buy plans to match Amazon pricing in holiday season: WSJ
  • Presidential Debate, China GDP: Week Ahead Oct. 13-20

EARNINGS:

    • JPMorgan (JPM) 7am, $1.20 - Preview
    • IGate (IGTE) 7:03am, $0.38
    • Wells Fargo (WFC) 8am, $0.87 - Preview
    • Webster Financial (WBS) 8am, $0.46
    • DiamondRock Hospitality (DRH) 8am, $0.19

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Oil Heads for First Weekly Gain in Month on Middle East Tension
  • Copper Traders Most Bearish Since June on Economies: Commodities
  • Malaysia to Reduce Palm Oil Export Tax, Abolish Duty Free Quota
  • Copper Drops on Concern Demand Will Fade Amid Global Slowdown
  • Soybeans Drop as Global Supply Concerns Ease After USDA Report
  • Gold Seen Gaining in London as Weaker Dollar Spurs Investment
  • Sugar Declines on Speculation Demand Is Waning; Cocoa Advances
  • Sugar Cane Farmers Should Get 70% of Revenue, India Panel Says
  • Iron-Ore Forecast Lowered at HSBC on Weakening Chinese Demand
  • CO2 Storage May Aid Oil Company Revenue, Avoid Decommissioning
  • Oil May Fall as Rising Output Boosts Stockpiles, Survey Shows
  • Rubber in Shanghai Set to Extend Bull Rally: Technical Analysis
  • Twin-Peak Rally Seen Boosting Grains in First Quarter of 2013
  • Palm Oil Tumbles as Malaysia to Abolish Duty-Free Exports Quota

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

CURRENCIES

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EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

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ASIAN MARKETS


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

 

MIDDLE EAST


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

The Hedgeye Macro Team