THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – October 12, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 20 points or -0.48% downside to 1426 and 0.92% upside to 1446. 

                                            

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 9

 

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 10/11 NYSE 909.00
    • Increase versus the prior day’s trading of -737
  • VOLUME: on 10/11 NYSE 646.68
    • Increase versus prior day’s trading of 9.45%
  • VIX:  as of 10/11 was at 15.59
    • Decrease versus most recent day’s trading of -4.30%
    • Year-to-date decrease of -33.38%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 10/11 closed at 1.72
    • Up from the day prior at 1.67

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning 24.36
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.10%
  • 10-Year: as of this morning 1.69%
    • Increase from prior day’s trading of 1.67%
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.42
    • Up from prior day’s trading at 1.41

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates)

  • 8:30am: Producer Price Index M/m, Sept. est. 0.8%
  • 8:30am: PPI Ex Food & Energy M/m, Sept. est. 0.2%
  • 9:55am: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Oct. preliminary, est. 78.0 (prior 78.3)
  • 11am: Fed to buy $1.75n-$2.25b notes due 2/15/2036-8/15/2020
  • 12:35pm: Fed’s Lacker speaks in Charlottesville, Va.
  • 1pm: Baker Hughes rig count

GOVERNMENT:

    • Dodd-Frank rules take effect that require companies to begin tallying derivatives trades to determine whether they cross $8b threshold for being designated swap dealers subject to heightened capital and collateral standards; CFTC also will require companies to tally foreign-exchange swaps, forwards
    • Interior Secretary Ken Salazar, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., make announcement on renewable energy and public lands, 1:30pm
    • Education Secretary Duncan answers Twitter questions about federal student aid, tools available to help students, families make informed decisions about financing higher education, 4pm

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Telefonica agreed to sell its Atento call-center division to Bain Capital, with enterprise value of EU1.04b, including debt
  • WellPoint reorganizes in interim CEO Cannon’s 1st major move
  • TPG withdraws A$694m offer for Billabong as talks end
  • Softbank shares fell as operator said it’s in talks to invest in Sprint Nextel, said to be seeking control
  • S&P put Softbank’s long-term outlook on creditwatch negative, citing announcement on Sprint Nextel talks
  • Kraft said to be putting its Breakstone’s sour cream, cottage cheese business up for sale, may be worth ~$400m
  • Gary Gensler, chairman of CFTC, said he’d be willing to serve 2nd term as head of the agency
  • Carlyle given another month to consider making Chemring bid
  • Family that controls Champion Technologies said to be seeking sale of the closely held company
  • Nasdaq, setting up derivatives trading system in London, will seek more than 10% market share in its first year of operation
  • JPMorgan expects investment-banking fees from U.S.-listed Chinese cos. to surge this year as they step up acquisitions
  • Pfizer appealed judge’s order that CEO Read testify in person at federal trial on claims against anti-smoking drug Chantix
  • Samsung Electronics won bid to continue selling newest Galaxy Nexus smartphone in U.S. during appeal
  • Apollo Global, Oaktree Capital said to have rejected Nine Entertainment’s debt restructuring proposal, countered by offering funds managed by Goldman a smaller stake in the co.
  • Honeywell expects to boost aerospace sales in Asia by 7% a year, double the pace in U.S.
  • VMware said partnership with Cisco will change after its $1.26b acquisition of Nicira
  • Answers Corp., which lost bid to buy About.com from New York Times in Aug., has other plans to grow through acquisitions
  • Morgan Stanley execs said to have told partner in Rhinebridge structured investment vehicle that mortgages underlying SIV may cause it to fail
  • Best Buy plans to match Amazon pricing in holiday season: WSJ
  • Presidential Debate, China GDP: Week Ahead Oct. 13-20

EARNINGS:

    • JPMorgan (JPM) 7am, $1.20 - Preview
    • IGate (IGTE) 7:03am, $0.38
    • Wells Fargo (WFC) 8am, $0.87 - Preview
    • Webster Financial (WBS) 8am, $0.46
    • DiamondRock Hospitality (DRH) 8am, $0.19

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Oil Heads for First Weekly Gain in Month on Middle East Tension
  • Copper Traders Most Bearish Since June on Economies: Commodities
  • Malaysia to Reduce Palm Oil Export Tax, Abolish Duty Free Quota
  • Copper Drops on Concern Demand Will Fade Amid Global Slowdown
  • Soybeans Drop as Global Supply Concerns Ease After USDA Report
  • Gold Seen Gaining in London as Weaker Dollar Spurs Investment
  • Sugar Declines on Speculation Demand Is Waning; Cocoa Advances
  • Sugar Cane Farmers Should Get 70% of Revenue, India Panel Says
  • Iron-Ore Forecast Lowered at HSBC on Weakening Chinese Demand
  • CO2 Storage May Aid Oil Company Revenue, Avoid Decommissioning
  • Oil May Fall as Rising Output Boosts Stockpiles, Survey Shows
  • Rubber in Shanghai Set to Extend Bull Rally: Technical Analysis
  • Twin-Peak Rally Seen Boosting Grains in First Quarter of 2013
  • Palm Oil Tumbles as Malaysia to Abolish Duty-Free Exports Quota

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

 

CURRENCIES

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

 

ASIAN MARKETS


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

 

MIDDLE EAST


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 

 

 

 

 



Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

"Most people who are making a ton of money right now are focused on growth companies seeing accelerations," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look. "That’s what happens in Quad 1."

read more

People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

read more

UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

read more

Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

read more

Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

read more

An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

read more

Got Process? Zero Hedge Sells Fear, Not Truth

Fear sells. Always has. Look no further than Zero Hedge.

read more

REPLAY: Review of $EXAS Earnings Call (A Hedgeye Best Idea Long)

Our Healthcare Team made a monster call to be long EXAS - hear their updated thoughts.

read more

Capital Brief: 5 Things to Watch Right Now In Washington

Here's a quick look at some key issues investors should keep an eye on from Hedgeye's JT Taylor and our team of Washington Policy analysts in D.C.

read more

Premium insight

[UNLOCKED] Today's Daily Trading Ranges

“If I could only have one thing of the many things we have it would be my daily ranges." Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough said recently.

read more

We'll Say It Again: Leave Your Politics Out of Your Portfolio

If your politics dictates your portfolio positioning, the Democrats and #NeverTrump crowd out there have had a hell of a week.

read more