This note was originally published
at 8am on September 25, 2012 for Hedgeye subscribers.
“We are holding our position.”
-General George S. Patton
That’s what one of America’s greatest said on the eve of July 31, 1944 when Patton “outlined the basic procedure for his men until war’s end.” In specifically addressing his intentions toward the enemy, he also added that “we’re going to go through him like crap through a goose.” (The Soul of Battle, page 289)
In terms of how I think about our proverbial enemy in Global Economics (The Keynesian Army of Academia), that sounds about right. As I watched a good man win $30,000 after hitting a Hole-In-One yesterday at the Homes For The Brave fundraiser in CT, I said to myself ‘divine intervention!’ Somewhere, something out there is telling me Americans are smarter than our failed policy makers.
After their 2-day Viagra rally, Bernanke’s Bailout Beggars are back on their heels. Our Q2 2012 Global Macro Theme of “The Last War: Fed Fighting” isn’t easy. But it ain’t over till it’s over either. We’re Holding Our Position that Policies To Inflate (Qe3) will only perpetuate the global growth slowdown. We believe that Strong Dollar is the only way to long-term American prosperity.
Back to the Global Macro Grind…
Don’t look now, but US stocks are down for 5 of the last 6 days and have done nothing but go down versus the YTD highs established on the day after Bernanke became completely politicized (September 13th, 2012).
From that goose poop intraday high on September 14th of 1474 in the SP500:
- US stocks are down -1.2% and -1.9% respectively (SP500 and Russell 2000)
- CRB Commodities Index is down hard, from 320 to 305 (-4.8%)
- US Treasury Bond Yields are down even harder, from 1.89% to 1.69% (-11%)
Ok, maybe calling it goose poop is a bit much. But if you bought stocks/commodities up there and shorted bonds, and put your nose real close to your P&L since, it’s closer to the truth than a rumor.
On a more serious note, this is getting serious. The Chairman of the Federal Reserve continues to make promises to markets that he cannot keep. Reality here is sad and simple, at the same time:
- Money Managers are forced to front-run Bernanke, chasing asset prices higher into central planning events
- Then they all need to sell, at the same time, before economic gravity takes hold, and prices correct
This is the anti-thesis of part I of Bernanke’s Congressional mandate (“price stability”). It’s also the #1 reason why A) people won’t hire and B) people won’t invest in this market at a 4.5 year top. Real people with real money don’t trust this market as far as they can throw an NFL replacement ref.
Now, to be fair, the equity bulls who got smoked from March-June have absolutely “nailed it” from July-September – maybe for all of the wrong reasons (#GrowthSlowing) – but nailing it is nailing it when it comes to the score.
But where do they go from here? In March perma-bulls said “3-4% growth is back, earnings are great, and stocks are cheap.” Today, we have both Growth and Earnings Slowing, but something like 216,000 global “easings” which are, allegedly, going to trump earnings season.
In addition to what Fedex (FDX), Intel (INTC), Staples (SPLS), Norfolk Southern (NSC), Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY), and Oracle (ORCL) have previewed in the last 2 weeks, here’s the Growth and #EarningsSlowing Update from Caterpillar (CAT) last night:
- CAT cut 2012 and 2015 guidance without a lot of specifics
- Management hinted that 2012 Revenues would “come off” by about $2 Billion Dollars
- Management insisted cutting 2015 guidance from $15-20 in EPS to $12-18 in EPS was “not a guidance cut”
So, in our Research Meeting today I’ll ask our new long-cycle master Industrials Managing Director, Jay Van Sciver, if it’s “not a guidance cut”, what specifically does that goosy stuff smell like to you?
To review: when people say “stocks are cheap”, this CAT puke example really speaks to the heart of what that might mean. Cheap is cheap if the company can actually deliver on revenue and earnings expectations. “Cheap” gets cheaper when companies guide down:
- If you bought CAT in February 2012 at $116, assuming $20 in 2015 EPS, you paid what you thought was 6x EPS on 2015
- If you shorted CAT in February at $116, assuming $12 in 2015 EPS, you shorted it at 10x hopeful 2015 EPS
Ok, so 6-10x is cheap, I guess, if you use 2015! I’d need at least 6 Bud Lights and a 50% chance at Powerball to put my name on a 2015 forecast right now, by the way.
In the meantime, what about 2013? What if the company can’t drive earnings above $9 for the next 3yrs? What does Chinese “construction off 40%” (per CAT management) mean to Q3 and Q4 of 2012 revenues and earnings assumptions?
If you are long CAT, we’re guessing you don’t know the answer to those questions this morning. That’s ok, neither does CAT’s management. Therefore, goose or no goose, we are Holding Our Position: Short CAT as growth and earnings slow.
My immediate-term risk ranges for Gold, Oil (Brent), US Dollar, EUR/USD, UST 10yr Yield, and the SP500 are now $1742-1785, $106.73-111.44, $1742-1785, $78.85-80.63, $1.28-1.30, 1.63-1.79%, and 1442-1458, respectively.
Best of luck out there today,
Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer