Below are key European banking risk monitors, which are included as part of Josh Steiner and the Financial team's "Monday Morning Risk Monitor". If you'd like to receive the work of the Financials team or request a trial please email .
Key Takeaways:
* Last week American and European bank swaps tightened across the board fueled by ECB comments about assistance for Spain and an initially strong perception of the US labor situation. However, Friday's softening by the close coupled with this morning's performance around the world is suggesting the labor-based rally may be short-lived.
* Sovereign CDS - Sovereign swaps mostly moved in tandem with bank swaps around the world, tightening across the board. The one notable divergence was the United States, which saw its sovereign swaps rise by 26.4% (9 bps) to 42 bps from 33 bps in the prior week.
On OMTs Reporting: The ECB has stated that Aggregate Outright Monetary Transaction holdings and their market values will be published on a weekly basis and the average duration of Outright Monetary Transaction holdings and the breakdown by country will take place on a monthly basis. There is no indication that the OMTs has been initiated to date.
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If you’d like to discuss recent developments in Europe, from the political to financial to social, please let me know and we can set up a call.
Matthew Hedrick
Senior Analyst
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European Financials CDS Monitor – European bank swaps were tighter across the board with Italian, Spanish and French banks showing the sharpest week-over-week improvement. Overall, swaps were tighter for 35 out of 37 reference entities with an average tightening of 29 bps.
Euribor-OIS spread – The Euribor-OIS spread tightened by less than 1 bp to 13 bps. The Euribor-OIS spread (the difference between the euro interbank lending rate and overnight indexed swaps) measures bank counterparty risk in the Eurozone. The OIS is analogous to the effective Fed Funds rate in the United States. Banks lending at the OIS do not swap principal, so counterparty risk in the OIS is minimal. By contrast, the Euribor rate is the rate offered for unsecured interbank lending. Thus, the spread between the two isolates counterparty risk.
ECB Liquidity Recourse to the Deposit Facility – The ECB Liquidity Recourse to the Deposit Facility measures banks’ overnight deposits with the ECB. Taken in conjunction with excess reserves, the ECB deposit facility measures excess liquidity in the Euro banking system. An increase in this metric shows that banks are borrowing from the ECB. In other words, the deposit facility measures one element of the ECB response to the crisis.
Matthew Hedrick
Senior Analyst
